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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for TCU game (Thursday)
- asteroid
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2 years 8 months ago #28572
by asteroid
Second-worst performance of the season. Only the Kentucky game was worse. And
it may have cost the Jayhawks their chance at sole ownership of the conference
championship. Now the rematch.
Kansas has played four games below expectation by double digits, as well as
four games above expectation by double digits. In a 30-game season, the laws
of statistics say that you'll play five games above and below expectation by
double digits, with the other 20 games in the single-digit range. The Jayhawks
can't afford another double-digit below expectation performance, at least not
in these next two games. As balanced as the conference is, probably can't
afford it even in the first round of the conference tournament. About the
only time they could get away with it and still advance is in the first round
of the NCAA Tournament. But in a 36-game season, the odds are that you'll
play six games above and below expectation by double digits. So from here on
out, the key is consistency. Go ahead and play above expectation by double
digits, but avoid playing below expectation by double digits.
Everybody is picking Kansas in the rematch. Sagarin's eigenvector analysis
is the most optimistic at 14.3 points, while Sagarin's recent games ratings
are at the low end, just 2.7 points. Trend analysis puts it at 7.6 points.
Common opponents suggests 12.1 points. Total points of 140 represents the
average of the two teams' historical performance this season. Tuesday's
game produced 138 total points, really close to the expectation.
I could go on, but once again, I've been up all night. That'll also be the
case for Saturday's regular season finale.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats TCU KU Defensive Stats TCU KU
Points/Game 68.6 79.1 Opp Points/Game 64.4 68.8
Avg Score Margin +4.2 +10.3 Opp Effective FG % 47.6 47.1
Assists/Game 14.0 15.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.8 10.2
Total Rebounds/Gm 39.4 37.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.4 24.8
Effective FG % 48.8 54.9 Blocks/Game 4.1 3.9
Off Rebound % 36.9 33.1 Steals/Game 6.2 6.2
FTA/FGA 0.306 0.314 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.1 15.7
Turnover % 17.8 15.4
My Stats Comparison KU TCU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.34 +0.47
inconsistency 9.96 9.83
trend -0.22 ± 0.22 +0.31 ± 0.23
mental toughness -0.26 ± 0.26 +0.07 ± 0.19
average total pts 147.93 132.96
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas has played
twice (West Virginia), one of which TCU has played twice (Texas), and six of which
oth have played twice (Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State,
Texas Tech) for which I'll only use the home-home and road-road permutations, plus
the head-to-head in Fort Worth, giving us seventeen scores to compare:
KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court) KU -10 BU on road ( -6 neutral court)
TCU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral court) TCU -10 BU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU +40 TCU on home (+36 neutral court) KU +4 TCU on home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)
TCU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court) TCU -12 KSU at home (-16 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU on home ( 0 neutral court) KU +35 TCU on home (+31 neutral court)
KU +2 OU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU +1 OU at home ( -3 neutral court) TCU +9 OU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU +5 TCU on home ( +1 neutral court) KU -2 TCU on home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court) KU +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
TCU -1 OSU on road ( +3 neutral court) TCU +4 OSU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +12 TCU on home ( +8 neutral court) KU +14 TCU on home (+10 neutral court)
KU +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court) KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
TCU +15 ISU on road (+19 neutral court) TCU -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU -2 TCU on home ( -6 neutral court) KU +8 TCU on home ( +4 neutral court)
KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court) KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court)
TCU -23 UT at home (-27 neutral court) TCU -9 UT on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +32 TCU on home (+28 neutral court) KU +10 TCU on home ( +6 neutral court)
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
TCU -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court) TCU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU +9 TCU on home ( +5 neutral court) KU +4 TCU on home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court) KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
TCU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court) TCU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +15 TCU on home (+11 neutral court) KU +20 TCU on home (+16 neutral court)
KU -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU -2 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)
The average is 12.12 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 12.86 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Mike Miles (guard)
most points Mike Miles (guard)
most rebounds Emanuel Miller (forward)
most assists Damion Baugh (guard)
most steals Mike Miles (guard)
most blocks Emanuel Miller (forward)
most turnovers Damion Baugh (guard)
most fouls Micah Peavy (guard)
Reserve guard Maxwell Evans has been out for a couple months with no timetable
for a return; he's eighth on the team in minutes per game played.
23-6 19-9
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas TCU
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +10.31 74 64 82 # 4 # 13 # 50 # 37
Sagarin Predictor +10.81 75 64 86.3 # 4 # 13 # 54 # 37
Sagarin Golden Mean +10.62 74 64 # 2 # 13 # 49 # 37
Sagarin Recent Games +2.69 70 68 # 9 # 13 # 51 # 37
Sagarin Eigenvector +14.30 76 62 88
Massey +9.00 75 66 81 # 9 # 4 # 34 # 26
Pomeroy +9.34 76 66 # 9 # 2 # 42 # 21
Greenfield +10.50 77 67 # 9 # 3 # 51 # 35
Dunkel +13.50 81 67 # 9 # 60
Vegas (via Dunkel) +10.50 77 67
Dolphin Predictive +10.59 77 66 82.4 # 10 # 3 # 32 # 23
Real Time +14.00 83 69 76.6 # 5 # 2 # 57 # 57
Seven Overtimes +9.00 75 66 80 # 4 # 1 # 49 # 39
DPPI +9.97 75 65 78.9 # 6 # 2 # 72 # 57
ESPN BPI +12.80 88.0 # 12 # 6 # 46 # 26
Whitlock +11.95 # 3 # 2 # 46 # 30
Colley Matrix +11.98 # 1 # 3 # 49 # 53
NCAA NET # 8 # 44
LRMC # 10 # 2 # 47 # 40
common opponents +12.12
Massey composite # 4 # 45
Pomeroy offense # 4 # 77
Pomeroy defense # 40 # 25
Pomeroy tempo # 74 #255
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +10.78 76.1 65.8 82.6
scatter 2.59 3.1 1.9 4.1
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back down
to 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 25 Michigan State 87 74 +6.17 +6.83
HOME #219 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.45 +1.55
HOME #234 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.61 +3.39
NEUT # 79 North Texas 71 59 +11.07 +0.93
NEUT # 51 Dayton 73 74 +8.78 -9.78
NEUT #105 Iona College 96 83 +13.89 -0.89
AWAY # 50 St. John's 95 75 +6.33 +13.67
HOME #174 UTEP 78 52 +21.70 +4.30
HOME #120 Missouri 102 65 +18.03 +18.97
HOME #127 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +18.51 -10.51
HOME #124 Nevada 88 61 +18.32 +8.68
HOME #106 George Mason 76 67 +16.31 -7.31
AWAY # 43 Oklahoma State 74 63 +5.48 +5.52
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.70 -7.30
HOME # 54 Iowa State 62 61 +11.40 -10.40
HOME # 58 West Virginia 85 59 +11.87 +14.13
AWAY # 38 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.95 -1.95
AWAY # 66 Kansas State 78 75 +7.80 -4.80
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.04 -1.04
HOME # 5 Kentucky 62 80 +2.37 -20.37
AWAY # 54 Iowa State 70 61 +6.66 +2.34
HOME # 3 Baylor 83 59 +1.46 +22.54
AWAY # 18 Texas 76 79 +1.37 -4.37
HOME # 38 Oklahoma 71 69 +9.69 -7.69
HOME # 43 Oklahoma State 76 62 +10.22 +3.78
AWAY # 58 West Virginia 71 58 +7.13 +5.87
HOME # 66 Kansas State 102 83 +12.54 +6.46
AWAY # 3 Baylor 70 80 -3.28 -6.72
AWAY # 46 TCU 64 74 +6.07 -16.07
HOME # 46 TCU +10.81 0.863
HOME # 18 Texas +6.11 0.744
Here is TCU's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #313 McNeese State 77 61 +23.30 -7.30
HOME #331 Southern Miss 83 51 +24.10 +7.90
HOME #208 Nicholls State 63 50 +15.35 -2.35
NEUT # 87 Santa Clara 66 85 +3.38 -22.38
NEUT #237 Pepperdine 73 64 +14.93 -5.93
HOME #284 Austin Peay 68 51 +20.32 -3.32
HOME #141 Oral Roberts 71 63 +11.48 -3.48
HOME # 99 Utah 76 62 +6.99 +7.01
NEUT # 60 Texas A&M 68 64 +1.11 +2.89
AWAY #133 Georgetown 80 73 +6.03 +0.97
HOME #314 Grambling State 90 55 +23.31 +11.69
HOME # 3 Baylor 64 76 -6.98 -5.02
AWAY # 66 Kansas State 60 57 -0.64 +3.64
HOME # 38 Oklahoma 59 58 +1.25 -0.25
AWAY # 43 Oklahoma State 56 57 -2.96 +1.96
AWAY # 54 Iowa State 59 44 -1.78 +16.78
HOME # 18 Texas 50 73 -2.33 -20.67
HOME # 16 LSU 77 68 -3.53 +12.53
AWAY # 38 Oklahoma 72 63 -3.49 +12.49
HOME # 66 Kansas State 63 75 +4.10 -16.10
HOME # 43 Oklahoma State 77 73 +1.78 +2.22
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 69 82 -9.14 -3.86
HOME # 54 Iowa State 51 54 +2.96 -5.96
AWAY # 3 Baylor 62 72 -11.72 +1.72
HOME # 58 West Virginia 77 67 +3.43 +6.57
AWAY # 18 Texas 66 75 -7.07 -1.93
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 69 66 -4.40 +7.40
HOME # 6 Kansas 74 64 -6.07 +16.07
AWAY # 6 Kansas -10.81 0.137
AWAY # 58 West Virginia -1.31 0.442
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues
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