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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 7
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8 years 9 months ago #2213
by asteroid
[/size]
I need to leave for the airport in a few minutes, so there isn't time to reformat this
update to fit the width constraints. May I suggest using Ctrl-A to highlight everything,
then Ctrl-C to copy it, then paste it into a text editor where you can see the full width
without wrapping. Sure wish this new board had horizontal scroll bars like the old one.
Kansas State handled Oklahoma State rather easily, and they wound up swapping places in
the projected standings. Oklahoma's win in Waco was good for the newspaper standings,
in that Baylor is no longer on top of the conference, but the Sooners have now opened
up a one-game lead in the projected standings. Kansas could really use a road win over
one of the conference's better teams; let's hope it happens on Monday in Ames.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 5 Oklahoma 13.70 13.65 13.57 13.61 13.47 13.91 13.18 13.72 5 2 TT (Tu) OU by 12.7
# 3 West Virginia 13.69 13.83 13.70 13.81 14.53 14.18 12.82 13.08 5 2 KSU (Tu) WV by 11.9
# 6 Kansas 14.37 14.82 15.01 15.23 14.56 14.17 12.53 12.66 5 2 @ISU (Mo) KU by 0.8 projected road win
# 28 Baylor 9.00 8.27 8.71 9.76 10.21 10.84 11.15 10.53 5 2 @OSU (We) BU by 2.5 projected road win
# 22 Iowa State 9.68 9.74 10.00 8.90 8.36 9.24 9.99 10.28 4 3 KU (Mo)
# 35 Texas 8.14 7.48 7.80 6.99 7.43 7.68 9.13 8.94 4 3 TCU (Tu) UT by 12.8
# 39 Kansas State 6.98 6.79 6.52 6.64 7.16 6.27 6.02 6.61 2 5 @WV (Tu)
# 48 Texas Tech 7.13 7.83 7.57 7.22 6.59 5.79 6.16 5.97 2 5 @OU (Tu)
# 67 Oklahoma State 4.48 5.28 4.72 4.74 4.83 4.71 6.28 5.73 2 5 BU (We)
#126 TCU 2.83 2.31 2.40 3.10 2.86 3.21 2.74 2.48 1 6 @UT (Tu)
Crotistics took honors for best prognostications in Round 7. Greenfield retains the season
lead.
Predictions Reality Er1or 1 1 + 1 1 + 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Real Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Real Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI
OU over BU 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.5 -1.0 1.5 -3.0 1.3 2.5 3.7 -1.0 3.2 2.5 0.5 0.6 -1.3 10 8.4 8.0 8.9 8.5 11.0 8.5 13.0 8.7 7.5 6.3 11.0 6.8 7.5 9.5 9.4 11.3
KSU over OSU 5.2 6.0 3.9 5.5 3.0 6.0 12.0 4.3 6.0 6.4 9.0 8.4 5.1 7.1 1.3 8.3 16 10.8 10.0 12.1 10.5 13.0 10.0 4.0 11.7 10.0 9.6 7.0 7.6 10.9 8.9 14.7 7.7
WV over TT 6.6 4.0 3.0 4.0 6.5 3.5 -6.0 5.6 3.9 2.3 -2.0 4.6 8.0 6.1 4.3 6.4 4 2.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.5 0.5 10.0 1.6 0.1 1.7 6.0 0.6 4.0 2.1 0.3 2.4
ISU over TCU 8.5 9.0 9.9 10.0 7.0 10.0 3.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 5.0 8.5 9.2 7.3 7.0 8.6 13 4.5 4.0 3.1 3.0 6.0 3.0 10.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 8.0 4.5 3.8 5.7 6.0 4.4
KU over UT 10.1 10.0 8.4 11.5 4.5 11.5 15.0 8.4 9.7 6.5 7.0 9.5 10.8 12.8 7.5 17.3 9 1.1 1.0 0.6 2.5 4.5 2.5 6.0 0.6 0.7 2.5 2.0 0.5 1.8 3.8 1.5 8.3
total this round 27.4 23.0 25.7 24.5 37.0 24.5 43.0 27.5 23.0 24.8 34.0 20.0 28.0 30.0 31.9 34.1
previous total 227.6 239.0 226.4 222.0 261.5 225.5 280.0 230.3 240.3 236.2 255.0 242.8 248.4 249.5 262.0 237.6
cumulative 255.0 262.0 252.1 246.5 298.5 250.0 323.0 257.8 263.3 261.0 289.0 262.8 276.4 279.5 293.9 271.7
per game (total of 35) 7.3 7.5 7.2 7.0 8.5 7.1 9.2 7.4 7.5 7.5 8.3 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.4 7.8
Round 7 went pretty much as projected, so we're now close to the long-term average of
one-in-three road wins. Two road wins are projected for Round 8, but for one of them,
namely Kansas in Ames, the margin is less than a point, so it could easily go either way.
Road wins (12 out of 35) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
--------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
3 West Virginia KSU TCU TT 0 Kansas +2 Oklahoma
2 Baylor ISU TT 0 Oklahoma +2 West Virginia
2 Iowa State KSU TCU 0 Texas +1 Baylor
2 Oklahoma OSU BU 1 Baylor OU +1 Iowa State
1 Kansas TT 1 Iowa State BU +1 Kansas
1 Texas WV 1 Oklahoma State OU +1 Texas
1 Texas Tech TCU 1 West Virginia UT -1 Oklahoma State
0 Kansas State 2 Kansas State WV ISU -2 Kansas State
0 Oklahoma State 3 TCU WV TT ISU -2 Texas Tech
0 TCU 3 Texas Tech KU BU WV -3 TCU
Kansas still played almost 1 point below expectation against Texas, so the negative trend
continues, but with a slightly smaller value.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points) Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
--------------------- ---------------------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------
West Virginia +1.92 Texas Tech 5.91 Oklahoma State +0.42 +/- 0.48 Iowa State +0.27 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma +1.15 Oklahoma 7.84 Texas +0.28 +/- 0.47 Oklahoma State +0.22 +/- 0.22
Kansas +0.78 Kansas State 8.27 Texas Tech +0.26 +/- 0.27 Kansas State +0.09 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech +0.53 Iowa State 8.58 Kansas State +0.15 +/- 0.35 Oklahoma +0.03 +/- 0.17
Iowa State +0.35 TCU 9.69 Iowa State -0.12 +/- 0.37 TCU -0.03 +/- 0.17
Baylor +0.17 West Virginia 10.42 TCU -0.23 +/- 0.41 Baylor -0.14 +/- 0.21
Texas +0.12 Texas 10.99 Baylor -0.32 +/- 0.53 Texas -0.16 +/- 0.25
Kansas State -0.05 Kansas 11.19 Oklahoma -0.38 +/- 0.35 Kansas -0.17 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma State -0.10 Oklahoma State 11.36 Kansas -0.59 +/- 0.50 Texas Tech -0.18 +/- 0.14
TCU -0.42 Baylor 11.52 West Virginia -0.67 +/- 0.42 West Virginia -0.41 +/- 0.20
Everybody's strength of schedule is now in the top one-fifth of Division I. Big Monday's
game in Ames features the conference's worst defense.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts) Schedule Strength
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- --------------------------
Oklahoma 85.06 West Virginia 64.42 Iowa State 158.05 West Virginia +17.32 Texas 80.31 ( 1)
Iowa State 83.74 Oklahoma State 67.26 Oklahoma 157.11 Oklahoma +13.00 Oklahoma 79.99 ( 3)
West Virginia 81.74 Kansas State 67.53 Kansas 150.39 Kansas +12.39 Kansas 78.47 (10)
Kansas 81.39 Baylor 68.78 Baylor 146.78 Iowa State +9.42 Iowa State 78.11 (13)
Baylor 78.00 Texas Tech 68.94 West Virginia 146.16 Baylor +9.22 Texas Tech 77.20 (20)
Texas Tech 72.94 Texas 68.95 Texas Tech 141.89 Kansas State +5.37 Kansas State 76.75 (31)
Kansas State 72.89 Kansas 69.00 Texas 141.79 Texas Tech +4.00 West Virginia 76.24 (38)
Texas 72.84 TCU 69.16 Kansas State 140.42 Texas +3.89 Baylor 75.41 (55)
Oklahoma State 70.68 Oklahoma 72.06 Oklahoma State 137.95 Oklahoma State +3.42 Oklahoma State 75.36 (57)
TCU 68.26 Iowa State 74.32 TCU 137.42 TCU -0.89 TCU 75.01 (65)Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
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- konza63
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8 years 9 months ago #2228
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Thanks as always, Asteroid.
Based on this latest projection, your comment that KU could really use a road win against a top-tier conference team really stands out. That chance is presented to us tonight, in Ames.
OU has already played at our place and in Ames (both losses), but now only has one top-tier road game to contend with (at WVU). KU, on the other hand, has the same number of losses as OU, but has to play in Ames tonight, then also still trek to Baylor and OU. WVU has a similarly tough schedule (like KU), having to go to ISU, KU, and Baylor. Meanwhile, Baylor has to travel to WVU and OU.
Of all the three tough road games remaining for KU, the one in Waco seems most winnable to me. It will be exceptionally hard to win in Norman, to put it mildly. If we lose tonight, our margin for error gets even tighter. And note that I'm not even including trips to Manhattan and Austin in the calculation--venues where those schools will be sky high to play KU (as they always are).
Bottom line: A win tonight would be huge in the quest for 12 straight. And a loss would be pretty damaging. That unconscionable beatdown in Stillwater looms very large at this juncture.
Hope the boys (and staff) bring it in a big way tonight!
Based on this latest projection, your comment that KU could really use a road win against a top-tier conference team really stands out. That chance is presented to us tonight, in Ames.
OU has already played at our place and in Ames (both losses), but now only has one top-tier road game to contend with (at WVU). KU, on the other hand, has the same number of losses as OU, but has to play in Ames tonight, then also still trek to Baylor and OU. WVU has a similarly tough schedule (like KU), having to go to ISU, KU, and Baylor. Meanwhile, Baylor has to travel to WVU and OU.
Of all the three tough road games remaining for KU, the one in Waco seems most winnable to me. It will be exceptionally hard to win in Norman, to put it mildly. If we lose tonight, our margin for error gets even tighter. And note that I'm not even including trips to Manhattan and Austin in the calculation--venues where those schools will be sky high to play KU (as they always are).
Bottom line: A win tonight would be huge in the quest for 12 straight. And a loss would be pretty damaging. That unconscionable beatdown in Stillwater looms very large at this juncture.
Hope the boys (and staff) bring it in a big way tonight!
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.