predictions for TCU game

Hey, Saturday's game had been a projected loss all along, and it turned out to be
a loss.  No big surprise there.  Then again, Kansas did play below expectation.
Of course, you're going to do that in roughly half of your games anyway.  It's
called the Law of Averages.  What the Jayhawks can't afford to do is to repeat
that below-expectation performance, especially against a team that just had an
above-expectation performance against a worthy opponent.

RealTime, with it's enormous home court advantage, is picking TCU to win by a
point.  However, he was outdone by Dunkel, who has the Horned Frogs by 3 points.
Everybody else is picking Kansas, by anywhere from DPPI's 2.24 points to Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis, which has Kansas by 11.49 points.  The average is 5.1 points,
remarkably similar to the common opponents value.

TCU has positive trend and mental toughness values, while both are negative for
Kansas.  None are statistically significant, and a negative mental toughness
value says you play better against the weaker opponents and poorer against the
stronger opponents.  Then again, most teams are weaker from the Jayhawks'
perspective.  The trends, however, definitely work in TCU's favor, reducing the
Sagarin Predictor margin of 6.9 points down to 4.6 points.

That's enough for now.  I've been up all night (again).

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TCU     KU      Defensive Stats      TCU     KU
Points/Game         68.4    79.6     Opp Points/Game     64.4    68.6
Avg Score Margin    +4.0   +11.0     Opp Effective FG %  47.7    47.3
Assists/Game        13.9    15.9     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.6    10.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.1    37.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.3    24.8
Effective FG %      49.0    55.3     Blocks/Game          4.0     3.9
Off Rebound %       36.5    33.3     Steals/Game          6.3     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.307   0.315     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.2    15.7
Turnover %          18.1    15.6

My Stats Comparison        KU             TCU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.52           +0.25    
inconsistency          9.65            9.51    
trend                 -0.13 ± 0.23    +0.22 ± 0.24
mental toughness      -0.22 ± 0.25    +0.01 ± 0.19
average total pts      148.29         132.78    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas has played
twice (West Virginia), one of which TCU has played twice (Texas), and six of which
oth have played twice (Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State,
Texas Tech) for which I'll only use the home-home and road-road permutations, giving
us sixteen scores to compare:

KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)     KU  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)
TCU -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral court)     TCU -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +32 TCU on road (+36 neutral court)     KU   -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)
TCU  +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     TCU -12 KSU at home (-16 neutral court)
KU   -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)     KU  +27 TCU on road (+31 neutral court)

KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU  +1 OU  at home ( -3 neutral court)     TCU  +9 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)
KU   -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)     KU  -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
TCU  -1 OSU on road ( +3 neutral court)     TCU  +4 OSU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
TCU +15 ISU on road (+19 neutral court)     TCU  -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU    0 TCU on road ( +4 neutral court)

KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)     KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
TCU -23 UT  at home (-27 neutral court)     TCU  -9 UT  on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +24 TCU on road (+28 neutral court)     KU   +2 TCU on road ( +6 neutral court)

KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
TCU -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)     TCU  +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +1 TCU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU   -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)

KU  +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU  +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
TCU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court)     TCU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU   +7 TCU on road (+11 neutral court)     KU  +12 TCU on road (+16 neutral court)

The average is 5.00 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 12.74 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Mike Miles (guard)
most points        Mike Miles (guard)
most rebounds      Emanuel Miller (forward)
most assists       Damion Baugh (guard)
most steals        Mike Miles (guard)
most blocks        Xavier Cork (forward)
most turnovers     Damion Baugh (guard)
most fouls         Micah Peavy (guard)

Reserve guard Maxwell Evans has been out for a couple months with no timetable
for a return; he's eighth on the team in minutes per game played.

                                                          23-5           18-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +6.86   72   66       74       #  4   # 13    # 50   # 37
Sagarin Predictor       +6.94   72   66       76.5     #  4   # 13    # 54   # 37 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.16   73   65                #  2   # 13    # 49   # 37 
Sagarin Recent Games    +4.58   71   67                #  9   # 13    # 51   # 37 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +11.49   75   63       84    
Massey                  +5.00   73   68       69       #  6   #  4    # 38   # 30
Pomeroy                 +5.90   74   68                #  7   #  2    # 50   # 31
Greenfield              +5.50   75   69.5              #  7   #  5    # 54   # 38
Dunkel                  -3.00   74   77                #  9           # 63
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +5.50   73   76                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +6.19   75   69       70.7     #  6   #  3    # 72   # 57
Real Time               -1.00   75   76       47.6     #  4   #  3    # 64   # 70 
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   72   69       63       #  4   #  1    #101   # 48
DPPI                    +2.24   71   69       57.2     #  6   #  2    #  7   # 34 
ESPN BPI                +5.70                 70.9     # 10   #  6    # 50   # 27
Whitlock                +7.24                          #  3   #  2    # 46   # 30
Colley Matrix           +7.27                          #  1   #  3    # 49   # 53
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 49 
LRMC                                                   # 10   #  2    # 60   # 44
common opponents        +5.00         
Massey composite                                       #  4           # 45
Pomeroy offense                                        #  4           # 89
Pomeroy defense                                        # 31           # 27
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 68           #243
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.09   73.2 69.2     68.1
scatter                  3.25    1.5  4.3     10.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back down
to 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 25 Michigan State              87  74    +6.09    +6.91
HOME   #220 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.72    +1.28
HOME   #235 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.99    +3.01
NEUT   # 78 North Texas                 71  59   +11.31    +0.69
NEUT   # 50 Dayton                      73  74    +9.18   -10.18
NEUT   #105 Iona College                96  83   +14.01    -1.01
AWAY   # 52 St. John's                  95  75    +6.86   +13.14
HOME   #171 UTEP                        78  52   +21.87    +4.13
HOME   #121 Missouri                   102  65   +18.42   +18.58
HOME   #130 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +19.17   -11.17
HOME   #122 Nevada                      88  61   +18.63    +8.37
HOME   #106 George Mason                76  67   +16.46    -7.46
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma State              74  63    +6.50    +4.50
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.38    -7.62
HOME   # 53 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.61   -10.61
HOME   # 57 West Virginia               85  59   +11.90   +14.10
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                    67  64    +6.05    -3.05
AWAY   # 68 Kansas State                78  75    +8.22    -5.22
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.30    -1.30
HOME   #  5 Kentucky                    62  80    +2.52   -20.52
AWAY   # 53 Iowa State                  70  61    +6.93    +2.07
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      83  59    +1.93   +22.07
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       76  79    +1.82    -4.82
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                    71  69   +10.73    -8.73
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma State              76  62   +11.18    +2.82
AWAY   # 57 West Virginia               71  58    +7.22    +5.78
HOME   # 68 Kansas State               102  83   +12.90    +6.10
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      70  80    -2.75    -7.25
AWAY   # 54 TCU                                   +6.93             0.765
HOME   # 54 TCU                                  +11.61             0.887
HOME   # 19 Texas                                 +6.50             0.761

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #320 McNeese State               77  61   +23.09    -7.09
HOME   #332 Southern Miss               83  51   +23.60    +8.40
HOME   #223 Nicholls State              63  50   +15.81    -2.81
NEUT   # 87 Santa Clara                 66  85    +2.84   -21.84
NEUT   #236 Pepperdine                  73  64   +14.38    -5.38
HOME   #276 Austin Peay                 68  51   +19.28    -2.28
HOME   #144 Oral Roberts                71  63   +11.06    -3.06
HOME   # 98 Utah                        76  62    +6.27    +7.73
NEUT   # 64 Texas A&M                   68  64    +1.13    +2.87
AWAY   #134 Georgetown                  80  73    +5.68    +1.32
HOME   #315 Grambling State             90  55   +22.70   +12.30
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      64  76    -7.34    -4.66
AWAY   # 68 Kansas State                60  57    -1.05    +4.05
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                    59  58    +1.46    -0.46
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma State              56  57    -2.77    +1.77
AWAY   # 53 Iowa State                  59  44    -2.34   +17.34
HOME   # 19 Texas                       50  73    -2.77   -20.23
HOME   # 16 LSU                         77  68    -4.01   +13.01
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                    72  63    -3.22   +12.22
HOME   # 68 Kansas State                63  75    +3.63   -15.63
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma State              77  73    +1.91    +2.09
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  69  82    -9.65    -3.35
HOME   # 53 Iowa State                  51  54    +2.34    -5.34
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      62  72   -12.02    +2.02
HOME   # 57 West Virginia               77  67    +2.63    +7.37
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       66  75    -7.45    -1.55
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  69  66    -4.97    +7.97
HOME   #  4 Kansas                                -6.93             0.235
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -11.61             0.113
AWAY   # 57 West Virginia                         -2.05             0.408