Big 12 projection, Round 16

Baylor won while Texas Tech lost, so they swapped places in the projected standings.  Meanwhile,
the beneficiary of Tech's loss, TCU, leapfrogged three teams into the upper division.  If the
Jayhawks take care of business this week, Iowa State can retake that last upper division spot
from the Horned Frogs.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9  Rd.10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  4  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3   14.7 
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3   12.6 
# 13  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1   12.5 
# 17  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5   10.1 
# 54  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0    7.2 
# 53  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2    6.9 
# 46  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6    7.1 
# 70  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8    6.7 
# 44  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0    6.4 
# 58  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2    5.9 

                      Rd.11  Rd.12  Rd.13  Rd.14  Rd.15  Rd.16
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction   Prob
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------  ----
#  4  Kansas          14.1   14.2   14.4   14.7   14.8   14.4    12  3  @TCU (Tu)   KU  by  7.0  .768
#  3  Baylor          12.9   13.2   12.6   12.8   13.0   13.4    12  4  @UT  (Mo)   BU  by  1.8  .577
# 13  Texas Tech      11.7   11.9   12.4   13.0   13.3   12.6    11  5   KSU (Mo)   TTU by 11.2  .881
# 17  Texas           10.6   10.3   10.7   10.2   10.4   10.7    10  6   BU  (Mo)                .423
# 54  TCU              7.7    7.5    6.9    6.7    7.0    7.7     7  8   KU  (Tu)                .232
# 53  Iowa State       6.2    5.6    6.2    6.8    7.2    7.7     7  9   OSU (We)   ISU by  1.9  .569
# 46  Oklahoma State   6.7    7.2    7.0    7.4    7.1    6.8     6 10  @ISU (We)                .431
# 70  Kansas State     6.5    7.2    7.6    7.2    7.1    6.6     6 10  @TTU (Mo)                .119
# 44  Oklahoma         7.2    7.0    6.6    6.0    5.8    6.1     5 11   WVU (Tu)   OU  by  3.7  .642
# 58  West Virginia    6.4    5.9    5.4    5.2    4.3    4.0     3 13  @OU  (Tu)                .358

My home court adjustment to Sagarin Predictor and RealTime shared honors for best prognostications
in Round 16.  Honorable mention to ESPN's BPI.  Dunkel pulled up the rear by a wide margin, having
picked Kansas State to win big.  Greenfield retains the season lead by a half point over Vegas,
with Dolphin breathing down their necks.  Dunkel remains the bottom feeder for the season.

Two road wins had been projected for Round 16, and two happened, but one of them was not the
expected one.  Texas did win in Morgantown (barely) are expected, but Texas Tech failed to win
in Fort Worth, while Iowa State pulled out the win in Manhattan.  Two road wins are projected
for Round 17, namely Kansas in Fort Worth and Baylor in Austin.  Let's hope only the former
happens.

Road wins (29 out of 79)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
6 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU  KSU OSU     0 Kansas                                         +5 KU 
5 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU WVU         0 Texas Tech                                     +4 BU
4 Texas          KSU TCU OU  WVU             2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +3 TTU
3 Iowa State     OSU TCU KSU                 2 Texas          KSU TTU                         +2 UT 
3 Kansas State   UT  TCU ISU                 3 Oklahoma State KU  ISU BU                      -1 ISU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  4 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU  KSU                 -1 TCU
3 Texas Tech     BU  WVU UT                  4 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU UT                  -2 KSU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         4 TCU            BU  UT  KSU ISU                 -2 OSU          
1 Oklahoma State BU                          5 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU  BU  ISU             -3 OU 
0 West Virginia                              5 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU KU  UT              -5 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +1.50    West Virginia     8.14
Baylor          +1.13    Kansas State      8.53
Kansas State    +0.94    Texas             8.62
Texas Tech      +0.91    TCU               9.51
Kansas          +0.53    Kansas            9.62
TCU             +0.35    Baylor           10.04
Oklahoma State  +0.29    Texas Tech       10.39
Oklahoma        +0.29    Oklahoma State   10.55
Texas           +0.22    Iowa State       11.40
West Virginia   -0.98    Oklahoma         11.71

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.22 +/- 0.24    Iowa State      +0.25 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      +0.21 +/- 0.23    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State  +0.07 +/- 0.25    Texas Tech      +0.04 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.06 +/- 0.20    TCU             +0.01 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -0.11 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma State  -0.04 +/- 0.23
Texas           -0.11 +/- 0.19    Oklahoma        -0.06 +/- 0.21
West Virginia   -0.12 +/- 0.18    West Virginia   -0.16 +/- 0.16
Kansas          -0.13 +/- 0.23    Baylor          -0.17 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma        -0.31 +/- 0.26    Texas           -0.17 +/- 0.13
Baylor          -0.35 +/- 0.22    Kansas          -0.22 +/- 0.25

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          79.21   Texas           59.34   Kansas          148.29   Baylor          +13.07
Baylor          76.76   Texas Tech      61.28   Baylor          140.45   Texas Tech      +11.31
Texas Tech      72.59   Iowa State      63.24   West Virginia   137.24   Kansas          +10.14
Oklahoma State  69.07   Baylor          63.69   Oklahoma State  136.75   Texas            +9.17
Kansas State    68.75   TCU             65.00   Kansas State    135.71   Iowa State       +4.48
Texas           68.52   Oklahoma        65.21   Texas Tech      133.86   Oklahoma         +2.83
West Virginia   68.34   Kansas State    66.96   Oklahoma        133.24   TCU              +2.78
Oklahoma        68.03   Oklahoma State  67.68   TCU             132.78   Kansas State     +1.79
TCU             67.78   West Virginia   68.90   Iowa State      130.97   Oklahoma State   +1.39
Iowa State      67.72   Kansas          69.07   Texas           127.86   West Virginia    -0.55

Texas finishes with Baylor and at Kansas; will it be enough to get them into the Top 30?
TCU finishes with two games against Kansas, home and away, and lastly at West Virginia;
the Kansas games should get them into the Top 30, but will they stay there after playing
West Virginia?

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          80.96 (10) up   7
Oklahoma        80.91 (12) down 2
Kansas State    80.89 (13) down 6
West Virginia   80.85 (15) even
Oklahoma State  80.76 (16) even
Baylor          80.52 (19) up   3
Texas Tech      79.48 (28) up   2
Iowa State      79.46 (29) down 3
TCU             79.05 (36) up   3
Texas           78.71 (43) even