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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Baylor game
- asteroid
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2 years 9 months ago #28528
by asteroid
Top Ten matchup. ESPN College Gameday. Pretty good sign that it's a big game.
Baylor needs to win to keep its hopes of a conference championship alive.
Kansas had a surprisingly easy game with Baylor in Allen Field House. Yes, the
Bears were without Cryer, but that's expected to be the case again in the
rematch. However, despite missing the previous game, Flagler did play in the
earlier contest; in fact, he started and was their leading scorer. The big
difference this time around, besides the game being in Waco, is that leading
rebounder Tchatchoua is out for the rest of the season. But even without him,
Baylor has been playing close to expectation. The Jayhawks, of course, have
also been without Remy Martin. He didn't play in the earlier contest, and
it's unclear whether he might be available for the rematch. The word is that
he's resumed limited practice, but that shouldn't be taken to mean that he's
ready for game action.
The news isn't all bad. Seven Overtimes and Colley are both picking Kansas
by a point. Dunkel and RealTime are the pessimists, favoring Baylor by 12.5
and 12 points, respectively. The rest are mostly in the 1 to 3 point range
favoring the Bears, with the average being 3.4 points. Basically a
one-possession game.
You think Self might try to pull a fast one on Drew and play Remy, after
convincing everyone that he's not ready to return to action?
That's enough for now. I've been up all night and need to get up in less
than five hours, so until next time...
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats BU KU Defensive Stats BU KU
Points/Game 77.1 80.0 Opp Points/Game 63.0 68.2
Avg Score Margin +14.0 +11.8 Opp Effective FG % 47.7 47.1
Assists/Game 16.3 15.9 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.2 10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.1 37.4 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.6 24.9
Effective FG % 53.5 56.0 Blocks/Game 3.3 4.0
Off Rebound % 35.4 33.3 Steals/Game 9.3 6.5
FTA/FGA 0.273 0.316 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.9 15.5
Turnover % 15.8 16.0
My Stats Comparison KU BU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.78 +1.18
inconsistency 9.66 10.19
trend -0.08 ± 0.24 -0.44 ± 0.23
mental toughness -0.17 ± 0.27 -0.19 ± 0.17
average total pts 148.22 140.11
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, seven in conference plus Michigan State, one of
which Kansas has played twice (Iowa State) and five of which both have played twice
(Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas State) in which case
I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us fifteen scores to compare:
KU +13 MSU neutral (+13 neutral court)
BU +17 MSU neutral (+17 neutral court)
KU -8 BU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court) KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
BU +5 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court) BU +5 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU 0 BU on road ( +4 neutral court) KU -16 BU on road (-12 neutral court)
KU +2 OU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU +10 OU at home ( +6 neutral court) BU +14 OU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU -12 BU on road ( -8 neutral court) KU -15 BU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court) KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
BU -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral court) BU -10 TTU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU +2 BU on road ( +6 neutral court) KU -2 BU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court) KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
BU -7 OSU at home (-11 neutral court) BU +2 OSU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU +17 BU on road (+21 neutral court) KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court) KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
BU +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral court) BU +4 WVU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU 0 BU on road ( +4 neutral court) KU +18 BU on road (+22 neutral court)
KU +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court) KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU +25 KSU at home (+21 neutral court) BU +15 KSU on road (+19 neutral court)
KU -10 BU on road ( -6 neutral court) KU -16 BU on road (-12 neutral court)
KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court)
BU +17 UT at home (+13 neutral court)
KU -16 BU on road (-12 neutral court)
KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court)
BU +16 BU on road (+20 neutral court)
The average is 2.47 points in favor of Baylor, but with a scatter of 12.28 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes James Akinjo (guard)
most points Adam Flagler (guard)
most rebounds Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (forward)
most assists James Akinjo (guard)
most steals James Akinjo (guard)
most blocks Flo Thamba (forward)
most turnovers James Akinjo (guard)
most fouls Matthew Mayer (guard)
As is well known, Tchatchoua was lost for the rest of the season after tearing
multiple ligaments in his knee. Guard LJ Cryer has been nursing a foot injury
and isn't expected back until early next month. Guard Langston Love has missed
the entire season with a torn ACL.
23-4 23-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Baylor
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall -1.88 71 73 43 # 3 # 18 # 5 # 22
Sagarin Predictor -2.21 71 73 41.2 # 3 # 18 # 4 # 22
Sagarin Golden Mean -1.26 71 73 # 2 # 18 # 6 # 22
Sagarin Recent Games -0.07 72 72 # 4 # 18 # 12 # 22
Sagarin Eigenvector -0.02 72 72 50
Massey -4.00 72 76 37 # 4 # 6 # 3 # 29
Pomeroy -2.60 74 76 # 5 # 6 # 4 # 16
Greenfield -3.50 73 76.5 # 5 # 10 # 6 # 4
Dunkel -12.50 65 77 # 9 # 3
Vegas (via Dunkel) -3.50 73 76
Dolphin Predictive -2.58 74 76 41.2 # 4 # 5 # 6 # 4
Real Time -12.00 63 75 28.3 # 1 # 2 # 10 # 37
Seven Overtimes +1.00 72 71 46 # 3 # 1 # 20 # 37
DPPI -7.86 68 76 27.9 # 6 # 2 # 7 # 34
ESPN BPI -5.30 30.9 # 9 # 10 # 7 # 16
Whitlock -1.18 # 3 # 2 # 6 # 24
Colley Matrix +0.98 # 1 # 3 # 8 # 28
NCAA NET # 5 # 6
LRMC # 7 # 2 # 8 # 35
common opponents -2.47
Massey composite # 3 # 6
Pomeroy offense # 4 # 9
Pomeroy defense # 31 # 15
Pomeroy tempo # 66 #154
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -3.39 70.8 74.5 38.4
scatter 3.89 3.3 2.0 7.9
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to
where it started at 26-5:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 24 Michigan State 87 74 +6.33 +6.67
HOME #217 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.62 +1.38
HOME #243 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +26.46 +2.54
NEUT # 80 North Texas 71 59 +11.55 +0.45
NEUT # 50 Dayton 73 74 +9.08 -10.08
NEUT #102 Iona College 96 83 +14.05 -1.05
AWAY # 49 St. John's 95 75 +6.72 +13.28
HOME #173 UTEP 78 52 +22.15 +3.85
HOME #117 Missouri 102 65 +17.96 +19.04
HOME #129 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +19.21 -11.21
HOME #123 Nevada 88 61 +18.51 +8.49
HOME #107 George Mason 76 67 +16.66 -7.66
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.54 +4.46
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.62 -7.38
HOME # 51 Iowa State 62 61 +11.57 -10.57
HOME # 57 West Virginia 85 59 +12.11 +13.89
AWAY # 43 Oklahoma 67 64 +5.88 -2.88
AWAY # 69 Kansas State 78 75 +8.42 -5.42
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.02 -1.02
HOME # 5 Kentucky 62 80 +2.55 -20.55
AWAY # 51 Iowa State 70 61 +6.93 +2.07
HOME # 4 Baylor 83 59 +2.44 +21.56
AWAY # 17 Texas 76 79 +1.49 -4.49
HOME # 43 Oklahoma 71 69 +10.52 -8.52
HOME # 46 Oklahoma State 76 62 +11.18 +2.82
AWAY # 57 West Virginia 71 58 +7.47 +5.53
HOME # 69 Kansas State 102 83 +13.06 +5.94
AWAY # 4 Baylor -2.20 0.412
AWAY # 55 TCU +7.35 0.778
HOME # 55 TCU +11.99 0.894
HOME # 17 Texas +6.13 0.747
Here is Baylor's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #352 Incarnate Word 87 60 +37.07 -10.07
HOME #220 Nicholls State 89 60 +24.65 +4.35
HOME #338 Central Arkansas 92 47 +34.07 +10.93
HOME # 93 Stanford 86 48 +15.03 +22.97
NEUT # 86 Arizona State 75 63 +12.05 -0.05
NEUT # 62 VCU(Va. Commonwealth) 69 61 +10.02 -2.02
NEUT # 24 Michigan State 75 58 +6.21 +10.79
HOME #354 Ark.-Pine Bluff 99 54 +38.61 +6.39
HOME # 9 Villanova 57 36 +3.57 +17.43
AWAY # 33 Oregon 78 70 +5.16 +2.84
HOME #296 Alcorn State 94 57 +30.37 +6.63
HOME #336 Northwestern State 104 68 +33.65 +2.35
AWAY # 51 Iowa State 77 72 +6.81 -1.81
HOME # 43 Oklahoma 84 74 +10.40 -0.40
AWAY # 55 TCU 76 64 +7.23 +4.77
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 62 65 +3.90 -6.90
HOME # 46 Oklahoma State 54 61 +11.06 -18.06
AWAY # 57 West Virginia 77 68 +7.35 +1.65
AWAY # 43 Oklahoma 65 51 +5.76 +8.24
HOME # 69 Kansas State 74 49 +12.94 +12.06
AWAY # 21 Alabama 78 87 +2.61 -11.61
HOME # 57 West Virginia 81 77 +11.99 -7.99
AWAY # 3 Kansas 59 83 -2.44 -21.56
AWAY # 69 Kansas State 75 60 +8.30 +6.70
HOME # 17 Texas 80 63 +6.01 +10.99
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 73 83 -0.74 -9.26
HOME # 55 TCU 72 62 +11.87 -1.87
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma State 66 64 +6.42 -4.42
HOME # 3 Kansas +2.20 0.588
AWAY # 17 Texas +1.37 0.557
HOME # 51 Iowa State +11.45 0.852
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, DocBlues, hoshi, jaythawk1
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