Big 12 projection, Round 15

Iowa State got the home win over West Virginia, while Oklahoma State lost to Baylor, and
Kansas State lost to Kansas, allowing the Cyclones to leapfrog both into the upper division.
It was only three rounds ago that Iowa State was at the bottom of the conference.  How quickly
things can change.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9  Rd.10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  3  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3   14.7 
# 12  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1   12.5 
#  4  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3   12.6 
# 17  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5   10.1 
# 53  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2    6.9 
# 46  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6    7.1 
# 69  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8    6.7 
# 55  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0    7.2 
# 43  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0    6.4 
# 57  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2    5.9 

                      Rd.11  Rd.12  Rd.13  Rd.14  Rd.15
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction   Prob
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------  ----
#  3  Kansas          14.1   14.2   14.4   14.7   14.8    12  2  @BU  (Sa)                .412   
# 12  Texas Tech      11.7   11.9   12.4   13.0   13.3    11  4  @TCU (Sa)   TTU by  5.7  .715   
#  4  Baylor          12.9   13.2   12.6   12.8   13.0    11  4   KU  (Sa)   BU  by  2.2  .588   
# 17  Texas           10.6   10.3   10.7   10.2   10.4     9  6  @WVU (Sa)   UT  by  3.7  .670   
# 53  Iowa State       6.2    5.6    6.2    6.8    7.2     6  9  @KSU (Sa)                .468   
# 46  Oklahoma State   6.7    7.2    7.0    7.4    7.1     6  9  @OU  (Sa)                .397   
# 69  Kansas State     6.5    7.2    7.6    7.2    7.1     6  9   ISU (Sa)   KSU by  0.8  .532   
# 55  TCU              7.7    7.5    6.9    6.7    7.0     6  8   TTU (Sa)                .285   
# 43  Oklahoma         7.2    7.0    6.6    6.0    5.8     4 11   OSU (Sa)   OU  by  3.0  .603   
# 57  West Virginia    6.4    5.9    5.4    5.2    4.3     3 12   UT  (Sa)                .330   

My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 15, its fourth win of the season.
Dunkel pulled up the rear again.  Greenfield retains the season lead by a half point over Vegas.
Dunkel is still at the bottom of the heap for the season.  Seven Overtimes reappeared for
Wednesday's games, but missed out on nine games.

Only road win was projected for Round 15, and it is the only one that happened, leaving us two
road wins ahead of he long-term average of one-in-three.  Two road wins are projected for Round 16,
with Texas favored in Morgantown and Texas Tech favored in Fort Worth.

Road wins (27 out of 74)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
6 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU  KSU OSU     0 Kansas                                         +5 KU 
5 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU WVU         0 Texas Tech                                     +4 BU
3 Kansas State   UT  TCU ISU                 2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +3 TTU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  2 Texas          KSU TTU                         +1 UT 
3 Texas          KSU TCU OU                  3 Oklahoma State KU  ISU BU                      -1 KSU
3 Texas Tech     BU  WVU UT                  4 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU  KSU                 -1 TCU
2 Iowa State     OSU TCU                     4 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU  BU                  -2 ISU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         4 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU UT                  -2 OSU          
1 Oklahoma State BU                          4 TCU            BU  UT  KSU ISU                 -3 OU 
0 West Virginia                              4 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU KU                  -4 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +1.53    West Virginia     8.27
Baylor          +1.15    Texas             8.72
Kansas State    +1.06    Kansas State      8.73
Texas Tech      +1.05    TCU               9.54
Kansas          +0.85    Kansas            9.64
Oklahoma State  +0.29    Baylor           10.19
TCU             +0.27    Texas Tech       10.47
Texas           +0.17    Oklahoma State   10.66
Oklahoma        +0.04    Iowa State       11.67
West Virginia   -1.03    Oklahoma         11.88

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.31 +/- 0.24    Iowa State      +0.25 +/- 0.18
TCU             +0.18 +/- 0.25    Texas Tech      +0.05 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.08 +/- 0.22    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  +0.08 +/- 0.27    TCU             -0.02 +/- 0.19
Kansas          -0.07 +/- 0.24    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.23
Texas           -0.11 +/- 0.21    Oklahoma        -0.06 +/- 0.21
Iowa State      -0.14 +/- 0.28    West Virginia   -0.16 +/- 0.17
West Virginia   -0.15 +/- 0.19    Kansas          -0.17 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma        -0.34 +/- 0.28    Texas           -0.18 +/- 0.13
Baylor          -0.43 +/- 0.23    Baylor          -0.19 +/- 0.17

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          79.48   Texas           58.64   Kansas          148.22   Baylor          +13.32
Baylor          76.71   Texas Tech      61.07   Baylor          140.11   Texas Tech      +11.68
Texas Tech      72.75   Iowa State      62.96   Oklahoma State  137.07   Kansas          +10.74
Oklahoma State  69.26   Baylor          63.39   West Virginia   136.32   Texas            +9.32
Kansas State    68.67   TCU             64.88   Kansas State    135.30   Iowa State       +4.46
Oklahoma        68.18   Oklahoma        65.25   Texas Tech      133.82   Oklahoma         +2.93
Texas           67.96   Kansas State    66.63   Oklahoma        133.43   TCU              +2.92
West Virginia   67.96   Oklahoma State  67.81   TCU             132.69   Kansas State     +2.04
TCU             67.81   West Virginia   68.36   Iowa State      130.39   Oklahoma State   +1.44
Iowa State      67.43   Kansas          68.74   Texas           126.61   West Virginia    -0.39

Just like last round, playing the weakest team in the conference (according to Sagarin Predictor)
at home really hurt the schedule strength ranking for Kansas.  However, it should recover
significantly by playing the strongest opponent in the conference (again according to Sagarin
Predictor) on the road, which happens on Saturday.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas State    81.03 ( 7) up   7
Oklahoma        81.01 (10) up   6
West Virginia   80.72 (15) up   3
Oklahoma State  80.64 (16) up   3
Kansas          80.64 (17) down 11
Baylor          80.15 (22) up   1
Iowa State      79.43 (26) even  
Texas Tech      79.24 (30) down 3
TCU             78.72 (39) up   7
Texas           78.57 (43) down 6