predictions for Kansas State game

On paper, it's the easiest remaining regular season game, to be followed on
Saturday by the most difficult remaining regular season game.  However, based
on the earlier contests against these two opponents, it could be the other
way around.  Kansas had an easy time with Baylor and struggled with Kansas
State, falling behind by 16 at the half and giving up 50 points in that half
to a team that normally scores more like 34 points in a half.  Nijel Pack was
all-world from behind the arc in that game, so one might think that the key to
winning today is to control Pack.  But could somebody else step up if the
Jayhawks did succeed in containing Pack?  At least this time Kansas has the
home court advantage.

All the prognosticators have Kansas winning by double digits.  RealTime, with
his enormous home court advantage, is the most optimistic, giving Kansas a
21 point margin, while Massey is the pessimist at just 11 points, though
Sagarin Recent Games is just 0.01 point more than Massey, and Pomeroy just
0.05 points more.  The average is 13.9 points with a scatter of 3.0 points.
(N.B.  Seven Overtimes' predictions are still AWOL, which is puzzling, given
that his rankings showed the updated records through Saturday's games.)

Kansas has played only a single game below expectation by enough to lose
(the Kentucky game, which was also in Allen Field House).  That's out of 26
games, for a 3.8 percent chance of losing.  Meanwhile, Kansas State has
played above expectation by enough to overcome the margin on three ocassions,
namely North Dakota, Texas Tech, and TCU, that last one coming on the road.
That's also out of 26 games, for an 11.5 percent chance of winning.  The
two average to a 7.7 percent chance of Kansas suffering the upset, a fair
bit less than the 12.3 percent average of the various probabilities shown
in the table below.

None of the trend or mental toughness value are statistically significant,
though they're both positive for Kansas State and both negative for Kansas.
Taken at face value, they decrease the Sagarin Predictor margin from 12.8
to 11.1 points.

Baylor and Texas Tech are favored in all their remaining games, so Kansas
can't afford to lose this game and still win the conference championship
outright, given that Baylor is favored on Saturday.  Basically, Kansas
needs to defeat the Wildcats and the Horned Frogs (twice), while splitting
the two remaining tough games against Baylor and Texas.  That'll win the
championship outright.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      KSU     KU      Defensive Stats      KSU     KU
Points/Game         68.3    79.2     Opp Points/Game     65.0    67.7
Avg Score Margin    +3.3   +11.5     Opp Effective FG %  47.2    46.8
Assists/Game        12.9    15.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.0    10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.7    37.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.5    25.0
Effective FG %      48.7    55.1     Blocks/Game          1.7     4.2
Off Rebound %       24.7    33.7     Steals/Game          7.1     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.292   0.324     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.2    15.5
Turnover %          14.7    15.8

My Stats Comparison        KU             KSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.83           +1.24    
inconsistency          9.84            8.80    
trend                 -0.14 ± 0.26    +0.15 ± 0.23
mental toughness      -0.17 ± 0.28    +0.07 ± 0.15
average total pts      146.81         133.38    

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference, three of which Kansas has played
twice (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State), two of which Kansas State has played twice
(Texas, Baylor), and two of which both have played twice (West Virginia, Oklahoma State),
in which case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the
head-to-head in Manhattan, giving us fifteen scores to compare:

KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)
KSU  -2 OU  on road ( +2 neutral court)     KSU  -2 OU  on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +9 KSU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU    0 KSU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)     KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KSU -13 UT  at home (-17 neutral court)     KSU  +1 UT  on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU  +22 KSU at home (+18 neutral court)     KU    0 KSU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU  +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
KSU  -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral court)     KSU  +5 WVU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +20 KSU at home (+16 neutral court)     KU  +25 KSU at home (+21 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KSU +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)     KSU +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU   -4 KSU at home ( -8 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU at home (-11 neutral court)

KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)     KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)
KSU -25 BU  on road (-21 neutral court)     KSU -15 BU  at home (-19 neutral court)
KU  +45 KSU at home (+41 neutral court)     KU  +43 KSU at home (+39 neutral court)

KU  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)     KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
KSU  +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KSU  -3 OSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)     KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral court)

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KSU  +6 ISU on road (+10 neutral court)     KSU  +6 ISU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU   +7 KSU at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   -9 KSU at home (-13 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU  +11 KSU at home ( +7 neutral court)

The Baylor comparison is particularly favorable for Kansas, while the Texas Tech
comparison favors Kansas State.  The average is 13.0 points in favor of Kansas,
with a scatter of 16.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Nijel Pack (guard)
most points        Nijel Pack (guard)
most rebounds      Mark Smith (guard)
most assists       Markquis Nowell (guard)
most steals        Markquis Nowell (guard)
most blocks        Davion Bradford (forward)
most turnovers     Markquis Nowell (guard)
most fouls         Mark Smith (guard)

Reserve guard Maximus Edwards is out for the season with a leg injury.  Reserve
forward Seryee Lewis will likely miss the entire season with a knee injury.
Reserve forward Logan Landers and reserve guard Trey Harris were recently in
COVID protocol, so could become available at any time.

                                                          22-4           14-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +12.90   76   63       86       #  3   # 10    # 68   # 17
Sagarin Predictor      +12.80   75   63       91.5     #  4   # 10    # 67   # 17 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +13.59   76   62                #  2   # 10    # 65   # 17 
Sagarin Recent Games   +11.01   75   64                #  6   # 10    # 48   # 17 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +17.61   78   70       92    
Massey                 +11.00   75   64       85       #  4   #  4    # 56   # 19
Pomeroy                +11.05   76   65                #  5   #  3    # 56   # 11
Greenfield             +12.00   77   65                #  5   #  8    # 63   # 29
Dunkel                 +18.50   83   65                #  9           # 85
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +12.00   77   65                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +11.64   77   65       84.8     #  5   #  3    # 49   # 21
Real Time              +21.00   86   65       87.9     #  4   #  3    #118   # 55 
Seven Overtimes                                        #  3   #  1    #138   # 32
DPPI                   +11.94   76   64       83.5     #  6   #  2    # 83   # 34 
ESPN BPI               +15.00                 91.2     #  9   #  6    # 64   #  7
Whitlock               +13.58                          #  4   #  2    # 60   # 24
Colley Matrix          +17.64                          #  1   #  3    # 92   # 43
NCAA NET                                               #  5           # 60 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #121*  #   
common opponents       +13.00         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 68
Pomeroy offense                                        #  4           # 75
Pomeroy defense                                        # 28           # 51
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 84           #251
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +13.90   77.5 64.6     87.7
scatter                  3.01    3.3  1.9      3.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to
where it started at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 22 Michigan State              87  74    +5.67    +7.33
HOME   #218 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.66    +1.34
HOME   #233 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.65    +3.35
NEUT   # 77 North Texas                 71  59   +11.54    +0.46
NEUT   # 51 Dayton                      73  74    +8.97    -9.97
NEUT   #103 Iona College                96  83   +13.61    -0.61
AWAY   # 45 St. John's                  95  75    +6.22   +13.78
HOME   #176 UTEP                        78  52   +22.01    +3.99
HOME   #120 Missouri                   102  65   +17.92   +19.08
HOME   #127 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +18.78   -10.78
HOME   #118 Nevada                      88  61   +17.80    +9.20
HOME   #106 George Mason                76  67   +16.34    -7.34
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma State              74  63    +6.49    +4.51
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.33    -7.67
HOME   # 52 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.33   -10.33
HOME   # 57 West Virginia               85  59   +11.87   +14.13
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                    67  64    +5.31    -2.31
AWAY   # 67 Kansas State                78  75    +8.22    -5.22
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.25    -1.25
HOME   #  6 Kentucky                    62  80    +2.64   -20.64
AWAY   # 52 Iowa State                  70  61    +6.75    +2.25
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      83  59    +2.25   +21.75
AWAY   # 15 Texas                       76  79    +1.28    -4.28
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.89    -7.89
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma State              76  62   +11.07    +2.93
AWAY   # 57 West Virginia               71  58    +7.29    +5.71
HOME   # 67 Kansas State                         +12.80             0.915
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -2.33             0.409
AWAY   # 56 TCU                                   +7.17             0.767
HOME   # 56 TCU                                  +11.75             0.884
HOME   # 15 Texas                                 +5.86             0.734

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #324 Florida A&M                 67  57   +22.04   -12.04
HOME   #341 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           79  64   +24.16    -9.16
NEUT   # 20 Arkansas                    64  72    -5.96    -2.04
NEUT   # 14 Illinois                    64  72    -8.14    +0.14
HOME   #340 North Dakota                84  42   +23.98   +18.02
HOME   #268 Albany-NY                   71  43   +17.70   +10.30
AWAY   # 75 Wichita State               65  59    -1.38    +7.38
HOME   # 37 Marquette                   63  64    -0.55    -0.45
HOME   #332 Green Bay                   82  64   +22.58    -4.58
AWAY   #136 Nebraska                    67  58    +4.47    +4.53
HOME   #316 McNeese State               74  59   +21.41    -6.41
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                    69  71    -5.20    +3.20
HOME   # 15 Texas                       57  70    -4.65    -8.35
AWAY   # 57 West Virginia               68  71    -3.22    +0.22
HOME   # 56 TCU                         57  60    +1.24    -4.24
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  62  51    -6.26   +17.26
AWAY   # 15 Texas                       66  65    -9.23   +10.23
HOME   #  4 Kansas                      75  78    -8.22    +5.22
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      49  74   -12.84   -12.16
AWAY   # 83 Mississippi                 56  67    -0.81   -10.19
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma State              71  68    +0.56    +2.44
AWAY   # 56 TCU                         75  63    -3.34   +15.34
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      60  75    -8.26    -6.74
AWAY   # 52 Iowa State                  75  69    -3.76    +9.76
HOME   # 57 West Virginia               78  73    +1.36    +3.64
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma State              79  82    -4.02    +1.02
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -12.80             0.085
HOME   # 52 Iowa State                            +0.82             0.531
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                           -10.84             0.129
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                              -0.62             0.476