Big 12 projection, Round 14

Oklahoma State prevailed at home against Kansas State as expected and swapped places in
the projected standings as a result.  Iowa State also prevailed at home against Oklahoma
as expected and also swapped places in the projected standings as a result, though the
size of the final margin was shockingly large for the Cyclones, and enough for Iowa State
to also climb past TCU, a loser to Baylor.  Texas Tech's six-point road win in Austin is
arguably better than Baylor's ten-point home win over TCU, so Tech swapped places in the
projected standings with Baylor.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  4  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3 
# 12  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1 
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3 
# 16  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5 
# 49  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6 
# 64  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8 
# 55  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2 
# 56  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0 
# 32  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0 
# 50  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2 

                      Rd.10  Rd.11  Rd.12  Rd.13  Rd.14
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction   Prob
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------  ----
#  4  Kansas          14.7   14.1   14.2   14.4   14.7    11  2   KSU (Tu)   KU  by 12.8  .915
# 12  Texas Tech      12.5   11.7   11.9   12.4   13.0    10  4   OU  (Tu)   TTU by  8.2  .771
#  3  Baylor          12.6   12.9   13.2   12.6   12.8    10  4  @OSU (Mo)   BU  by  7.1  .747
# 16  Texas           10.1   10.6   10.3   10.7   10.2     8  6   TCU (We)   UT  by  8.5  .816
# 49  Oklahoma State   7.1    6.7    7.2    7.0    7.4     6  8   BU  (Mo)                .253
# 64  Kansas State     6.7    6.5    7.2    7.6    7.2     6  8  @KU  (Tu)                .085
# 55  Iowa State       6.9    6.2    5.6    6.2    6.8     5  9   WVU (We)   ISU by  2.3  .589
# 56  TCU              7.2    7.7    7.5    6.9    6.7     5  7   WVU (Mo)   TCU by  1.6  .568
# 32  Oklahoma         6.4    7.2    7.0    6.6    6.0     4 10  @TTU (Tu)                .229
# 50  West Virginia    5.9    6.4    5.9    5.4    5.2     3 10  @TCU (Mo)                .432

Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 14.  Honorable mention to Sagarin's Eignevector
Analysis.  RealTime pulled up the rear, and Seven Overtimes was AWOL.  Greenfield retains the season
lead by a half point over Vegas and 1.1 points over Dolphin.  Dunkel remains the bottom feeder for the
season.

One road win was projected for Round 14, but two happened, the expected one and the Texas Tech
win in Austin, so we're still three road wins ahead of the long-term one-in-three average.  One
road win is projected by Round 15, namely Baylor in Stillwater, but the Cowboys are one of the
two teams to beat Baylor in Waco.

Road wins (26 out of 68)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
5 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU  KSU         0 Kansas                                         +5 KU 
5 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU WVU         0 Texas Tech                                     +3 BU
3 Kansas State   UT  TCU ISU                 2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +3 TTU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  2 Oklahoma State KU  ISU                         +1 UT 
3 Texas          KSU TCU OU                  2 Texas          KSU TTU                         -1 KSU
3 Texas Tech     BU  WVU UT                  4 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU  KSU                 -1 OSU
2 Iowa State     OSU TCU                     4 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU  BU                  -1 TCU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         4 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU UT                  -2 ISU          
1 Oklahoma State BU                          4 TCU            BU  UT  KSU ISU                 -3 OU 
0 West Virginia                              4 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU KU                  -4 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +1.41    West Virginia     8.53
Kansas State    +1.23    Kansas State      8.76
Baylor          +1.17    Texas             8.92
Kansas          +0.83    TCU               9.82
Texas Tech      +0.76    Kansas            9.88
Oklahoma State  +0.49    Texas Tech       10.28
TCU             +0.22    Baylor           10.39
Oklahoma        +0.16    Oklahoma State   10.85
Texas           +0.08    Oklahoma         11.77
West Virginia   -1.28    Iowa State       11.93

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.23 +/- 0.25    Iowa State      +0.26 +/- 0.18
TCU             +0.16 +/- 0.29    Kansas State    +0.07 +/- 0.15
Kansas State    +0.15 +/- 0.23    Texas Tech      +0.04 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma State  +0.06 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.21
Texas           -0.12 +/- 0.22    TCU             -0.02 +/- 0.20
Kansas          -0.14 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma State  -0.06 +/- 0.24
Iowa State      -0.14 +/- 0.30    Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.28
West Virginia   -0.15 +/- 0.23    West Virginia   -0.16 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma        -0.25 +/- 0.29    Baylor          -0.17 +/- 0.17
Baylor          -0.43 +/- 0.25    Texas           -0.17 +/- 0.13

We made it all the way to Round 14 before somebody dropped into negative scoring margin
territory.  The Mountaineers could climb back into positive territory, as the predicted
margins in their last five games are all less than 4 points, thus potentially winnable.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          78.69   Texas           58.30   Kansas          146.81   Baylor          +13.59
Baylor          77.04   Texas Tech      61.70   Baylor          140.48   Texas Tech      +11.37
Texas Tech      73.07   Iowa State      62.22   Oklahoma State  137.35   Kansas          +10.58
Oklahoma State  69.54   Baylor          63.44   West Virginia   134.92   Texas            +9.48
Oklahoma        69.07   TCU             64.38   Texas Tech      134.78   Iowa State       +4.67
Kansas State    68.04   Oklahoma        65.30   Oklahoma        134.37   Oklahoma         +3.78
Texas           67.78   Kansas State    65.35   Kansas State    133.38   TCU              +3.12
TCU             67.50   West Virginia   67.58   TCU             131.88   Kansas State     +2.69
West Virginia   67.35   Oklahoma State  67.81   Iowa State      129.11   Oklahoma State   +1.73
Iowa State      66.89   Kansas          68.12   Texas           126.07   West Virginia    -0.23

All conference members are now in the Top 50 in schedule strength.  Playing Baylor on the
road netted TCU 14 spots in the rankings.  Although West Virginia is at the bottom of the
conference, playing the Mountaineers on the road still enabled Kansas to climb 3 spots.
Oklahoma State dropped 8 spots by playing at home against Kansas State, which could be a
preview of what could happen to Kansas after Tuesday's game.  Texas still has to play
both Baylor and Kansas, the latter on the road, and TCU still has to play Texas and
Kansas twice, so we could potentially see everybody in the Top 30.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          80.94 ( 6) up   3
Kansas State    80.57 (14) up   2
Oklahoma        80.51 (16) up   1
West Virginia   80.40 (18) up   5
Oklahoma State  80.39 (19) down 8
Baylor          80.07 (23) down 2
Iowa State      79.53 (26) down 1
Texas Tech      79.28 (27) up   6
Texas           78.59 (37) up   6
TCU             78.20 (46) up  14