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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
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2 years 9 months ago #28443
by asteroid
Well, at least it wasn't another below-expectation performance. It could have been
a significant above-expectation performance, but the Jayhawks took their collective
foot off the accelerator. Today's opponent also produced one of the Jayhawks'
above-expectation performances earlier in the season, so let's hope history will
repeat itself.
The predictions scatter a bit more than usual this time around. Although everyone
is picking Kansas, RealTime is the pessimist with a meager 1 point margin, due to
the enormous home court advantage he uses. Sagarin's eigenvector analysis provides
us with the most optimistic margin at 11.7 points. The average is at 7.0 points.
None of the trend or mental toughness values have any statistical significance, but
if taken at face value, the margin is effectively unchanged.
I should note that Dunkel has been loading his predictions in chronological order,
and with Kansas playing such a late game, he doesn't have his predictions for that
game up yet, though the rest of the Big 12's games are posted. Also, Seven
Overtimes is apparently asleep at the wheel. Zero games are shown for Saturday.
So we'll go with what I have for now. I'll do an update closer to tip-off.
Sagarin has the total points as 141, which is pretty close to the average of the
two teams' average total points.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats WVU KU Defensive Stats WVU KU
Points/Game 68.3 79.5 Opp Points/Game 66.9 68.0
Avg Score Margin +1.4 +11.4 Opp Effective FG % 48.5 47.4
Assists/Game 10.2 15.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.3 10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 33.3 37.2 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.0 24.6
Effective FG % 46.9 55.3 Blocks/Game 5.0 4.3
Off Rebound % 28.4 33.7 Steals/Game 8.1 6.5
FTA/FGA 0.368 0.320 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.2 15.4
Turnover % 16.0 15.7
My Stats Comparison KU WVU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.67 -1.13
inconsistency 10.03 8.60
trend -0.20 ± 0.28 -0.14 ± 0.24
mental toughness -0.17 ± 0.28 -0.17 ± 0.18
average total pts 147.52 135.16
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference, two of which Kansas has played
twice (Oklahoma, Iowa State), two of which West Virginia has played twice (Kansas State,
Baylor), and two of which both have played twice (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech), in which
case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us fourteen scores to compare:
KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court)
WVU -15 UT on road (-11 neutral court)
KU +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court) WVU -5 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU +4 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court) KU +4 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court) KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
WVU +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court) WVU -23 OSU on road (-19 neutral court)
KU 0 WVU on road ( +4 neutral court) KU +30 WVU on road (+34 neutral court)
KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court) KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court)
WVU -9 BU at home (-13 neutral court) WVU -4 BU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU +29 WVU on road (+33 neutral court) KU +16 WVU on road (+20 neutral court)
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
WVU -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court) WVU -7 TTU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU +1 WVU on road ( +5 neutral court) KU +6 WVU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU +2 OU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU -10 OU at home (-14 neutral court) WVU -10 OU at home (-14 neutral court)
KU +8 WVU at home (+12 neutral court) KU +17 WVU on road (+21 neutral court)
KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court) KU +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
WVU +16 ISU at home (+12 neutral court) WVU +16 ISU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU -19 WVU on road (-15 neutral court) KU -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
KU +18 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
Only the Iowa State comparison favors West Virginia. The average favors Kansas by
8.5 points, with a scatter of 12.9 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Sean McNeil (guard)
most points Taz Sherman (guard)
most rebounds Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
most assists Taz Sherman (guard)
most steals Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most blocks Dimon Carrigan (forward)
most turnovers Taz Sherman (guard)
most fouls Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
21-4 14-11
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + 6.95 74 67 74 # 3 # 10 # 50 # 23
Sagarin Predictor + 6.57 74 67 75.9 # 4 # 10 # 51 # 23
Sagarin Golden Mean + 7.25 74 67 # 2 # 10 # 48 # 23
Sagarin Recent Games +10.81 76 65 # 7 # 10 # 99 # 23
Sagarin Eigenvector +11.65 76 65 84
Massey + 5.00 74 69 68 # 7 # 5 # 52 # 11
Pomeroy + 7.00 75 68 # 6 # 3 # 62 # 9
Greenfield + 4.50 75 70.5 # 7 # 6 # 51 # 27
Dunkel # 9 # 81
Vegas (via Dunkel)
Dolphin Predictive + 6.06 76 70 70.1 # 7 # 3 # 59 # 23
Real Time + 1.00 77 76 50.3 # 4 # 5 # 74 # 10
Seven Overtimes # 3 # 1 # 81 # 3
DPPI + 5.23 73 68 66.9 # 7 # 2 # 83 # 6
ESPN BPI + 5.40 69.5 # 10 # 8 # 50 # 7
Whitlock + 8.55 # 5 # 2 # 63 # 9
Colley Matrix +10.52 # 2 # 4 # 67 # 18
NCAA NET # 7 # 69
LRMC # 15* # # 17* #
common opponents + 8.50
Massey composite # 6 # 59
Pomeroy offense # 3 # 94
Pomeroy defense # 34 # 37
Pomeroy tempo # 81 #142
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +7.00 74.9 68.4 69.8
scatter 2.75 1.3 3.1 9.6
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 23 Michigan State 87 74 +5.41 +7.59
HOME #224 Tarleton State 88 62 +25.02 +0.98
HOME #234 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.57 +3.43
NEUT # 82 North Texas 71 59 +11.69 +0.31
NEUT # 48 Dayton 73 74 +8.80 -9.80
NEUT #102 Iona College 96 83 +13.62 -0.62
AWAY # 46 St. John's 95 75 +6.13 +13.87
HOME #167 UTEP 78 52 +21.72 +4.28
HOME #120 Missouri 102 65 +18.09 +18.91
HOME #128 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +19.06 -11.06
HOME #119 Nevada 88 61 +17.84 +9.16
HOME #104 George Mason 76 67 +16.10 -7.10
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.53 +4.47
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.32 -7.68
HOME # 55 Iowa State 62 61 +11.80 -10.80
HOME # 51 West Virginia 85 59 +11.25 +14.75
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.85 -1.85
AWAY # 66 Kansas State 78 75 +8.12 -5.12
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.36 -1.36
HOME # 5 Kentucky 62 80 +2.51 -20.51
AWAY # 55 Iowa State 70 61 +7.12 +1.88
HOME # 3 Baylor 83 59 +2.01 +21.99
AWAY # 16 Texas 76 79 +1.13 -4.13
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 71 69 +9.53 -7.53
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State 76 62 +11.21 +2.79
AWAY # 51 West Virginia +6.57 0.759
HOME # 66 Kansas State +12.80 0.911
AWAY # 3 Baylor -2.67 0.398
AWAY # 60 TCU +7.45 0.771
HOME # 60 TCU +12.13 0.886
HOME # 16 Texas +5.81 0.729
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #155 Oakland-Mich. 60 53 +12.23 -5.23
HOME #127 Pittsburgh 74 59 +10.06 +4.94
NEUT #266 Elon 87 68 +16.75 +2.25
NEUT # 36 Marquette 71 82 -1.27 -9.73
NEUT # 78 Clemson 66 59 +2.50 +4.50
HOME #237 Eastern Kentucky 80 77 +16.81 -13.81
HOME #192 Bellarmine 74 55 +14.38 +4.62
HOME #284 Radford 67 51 +20.26 -4.26
HOME # 18 Connecticut 56 53 -2.80 +5.80
HOME #130 Kent State 63 50 +10.31 +2.69
AWAY # 47 UAB 65 59 -2.52 +8.52
HOME #249 Youngstown State 82 52 +17.92 +12.08
AWAY # 16 Texas 59 74 -7.78 -7.22
HOME # 66 Kansas State 71 68 +3.89 -0.89
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State 70 60 +2.30 +7.70
AWAY # 4 Kansas 59 85 -11.25 -14.75
HOME # 3 Baylor 68 77 -6.90 -2.10
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 65 78 -9.23 -3.77
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 62 72 +0.62 -10.62
AWAY # 20 Arkansas 68 77 -6.63 -2.37
AWAY # 3 Baylor 77 81 -11.58 +7.58
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 53 60 -4.55 -2.45
HOME # 55 Iowa State 79 63 +2.89 +13.11
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 58 81 -2.38 -20.62
AWAY # 66 Kansas State 73 78 -0.79 -4.21
HOME # 4 Kansas -6.57 0.241
AWAY # 60 TCU -1.46 0.438
AWAY # 55 Iowa State -1.79 0.430
HOME # 16 Texas -3.10 0.362
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma -4.06 0.342
HOME # 60 TCU +3.22 0.635
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, hoshi, newtonhawk
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- asteroid
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2 years 9 months ago #28452
by asteroid
Hmm, still nothing from Seven Overtimes. However, Dunkel finally got his prediction
posted, and he turned out to pick the Mountaineers by 1.5 points, becoming the most
pessimistic of the lot. The average is down to 6.4 points in favor of Kansas, coming
very close to the Sagarin Predictor margin used to compute the probabilities.
West Virginia has been even worse than Kansas with regard to playing below-expectation
games in conference action. Just three above-expectation outcomes, with nine on the
negative side. At least all three of the good games were by enough to overcome the
6.6 point Sagarin Predictor margin. Not sure why Dunkel is expecting that to happen,
though.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats WVU KU Defensive Stats WVU KU
Points/Game 68.3 79.5 Opp Points/Game 66.9 68.0
Avg Score Margin +1.4 +11.4 Opp Effective FG % 48.5 47.4
Assists/Game 10.2 15.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.3 10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 33.3 37.2 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.0 24.6
Effective FG % 46.9 55.3 Blocks/Game 5.0 4.3
Off Rebound % 28.4 33.7 Steals/Game 8.1 6.5
FTA/FGA 0.368 0.320 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.2 15.4
Turnover % 16.0 15.7
My Stats Comparison KU WVU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.67 -1.13
inconsistency 10.03 8.60
trend -0.20 ± 0.28 -0.14 ± 0.24
mental toughness -0.17 ± 0.28 -0.17 ± 0.18
average total pts 147.52 135.16
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference, two of which Kansas has played
twice (Oklahoma, Iowa State), two of which West Virginia has played twice (Kansas State,
Baylor), and two of which both have played twice (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech), in which
case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us fourteen scores to compare:
KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court)
WVU -15 UT on road (-11 neutral court)
KU +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court) WVU -5 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU +4 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court) KU +4 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court) KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
WVU +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court) WVU -23 OSU on road (-19 neutral court)
KU 0 WVU on road ( +4 neutral court) KU +30 WVU on road (+34 neutral court)
KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court) KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court)
WVU -9 BU at home (-13 neutral court) WVU -4 BU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU +29 WVU on road (+33 neutral court) KU +16 WVU on road (+20 neutral court)
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
WVU -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court) WVU -7 TTU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU +1 WVU on road ( +5 neutral court) KU +6 WVU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU +2 OU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU -10 OU at home (-14 neutral court) WVU -10 OU at home (-14 neutral court)
KU +8 WVU at home (+12 neutral court) KU +17 WVU on road (+21 neutral court)
KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court) KU +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
WVU +16 ISU at home (+12 neutral court) WVU +16 ISU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU -19 WVU on road (-15 neutral court) KU -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
KU +18 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
Only the Iowa State comparison favors West Virginia. The average favors Kansas by
8.5 points, with a scatter of 12.9 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Sean McNeil (guard)
most points Taz Sherman (guard)
most rebounds Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
most assists Taz Sherman (guard)
most steals Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most blocks Dimon Carrigan (forward)
most turnovers Taz Sherman (guard)
most fouls Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
21-4 14-11
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + 6.95 74 67 74 # 3 # 10 # 50 # 23
Sagarin Predictor + 6.57 74 67 75.9 # 4 # 10 # 51 # 23
Sagarin Golden Mean + 7.25 74 67 # 2 # 10 # 48 # 23
Sagarin Recent Games +10.81 76 65 # 7 # 10 # 99 # 23
Sagarin Eigenvector +11.65 76 65 84
Massey + 5.00 74 69 68 # 7 # 5 # 52 # 11
Pomeroy + 7.00 75 68 # 6 # 3 # 62 # 9
Greenfield + 4.50 75 70.5 # 7 # 6 # 51 # 27
Dunkel - 1.50 75 77 # 9 # 71
Vegas (via Dunkel) + 5.00 76 71
Dolphin Predictive + 6.06 76 70 70.1 # 7 # 3 # 59 # 23
Real Time + 1.00 77 76 50.3 # 4 # 5 # 74 # 10
Seven Overtimes # 3 # 1 # 81 # 3
DPPI + 5.23 73 68 66.9 # 7 # 2 # 83 # 6
ESPN BPI + 5.40 69.5 # 10 # 8 # 50 # 7
Whitlock + 8.55 # 5 # 2 # 63 # 9
Colley Matrix +10.52 # 2 # 4 # 67 # 18
NCAA NET # 7 # 69
LRMC # 15* # # 17* #
common opponents + 8.50
Massey composite # 6 # 59
Pomeroy offense # 3 # 94
Pomeroy defense # 34 # 37
Pomeroy tempo # 81 #142
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +6.38 75.0 69.3 69.8
scatter 3.32 1.2 3.7 9.6
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 23 Michigan State 87 74 +5.41 +7.59
HOME #224 Tarleton State 88 62 +25.02 +0.98
HOME #234 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.57 +3.43
NEUT # 82 North Texas 71 59 +11.69 +0.31
NEUT # 48 Dayton 73 74 +8.80 -9.80
NEUT #102 Iona College 96 83 +13.62 -0.62
AWAY # 46 St. John's 95 75 +6.13 +13.87
HOME #167 UTEP 78 52 +21.72 +4.28
HOME #120 Missouri 102 65 +18.09 +18.91
HOME #128 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +19.06 -11.06
HOME #119 Nevada 88 61 +17.84 +9.16
HOME #104 George Mason 76 67 +16.10 -7.10
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.53 +4.47
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.32 -7.68
HOME # 55 Iowa State 62 61 +11.80 -10.80
HOME # 51 West Virginia 85 59 +11.25 +14.75
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.85 -1.85
AWAY # 66 Kansas State 78 75 +8.12 -5.12
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.36 -1.36
HOME # 5 Kentucky 62 80 +2.51 -20.51
AWAY # 55 Iowa State 70 61 +7.12 +1.88
HOME # 3 Baylor 83 59 +2.01 +21.99
AWAY # 16 Texas 76 79 +1.13 -4.13
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 71 69 +9.53 -7.53
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State 76 62 +11.21 +2.79
AWAY # 51 West Virginia +6.57 0.759
HOME # 66 Kansas State +12.80 0.911
AWAY # 3 Baylor -2.67 0.398
AWAY # 60 TCU +7.45 0.771
HOME # 60 TCU +12.13 0.886
HOME # 16 Texas +5.81 0.729
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #155 Oakland-Mich. 60 53 +12.23 -5.23
HOME #127 Pittsburgh 74 59 +10.06 +4.94
NEUT #266 Elon 87 68 +16.75 +2.25
NEUT # 36 Marquette 71 82 -1.27 -9.73
NEUT # 78 Clemson 66 59 +2.50 +4.50
HOME #237 Eastern Kentucky 80 77 +16.81 -13.81
HOME #192 Bellarmine 74 55 +14.38 +4.62
HOME #284 Radford 67 51 +20.26 -4.26
HOME # 18 Connecticut 56 53 -2.80 +5.80
HOME #130 Kent State 63 50 +10.31 +2.69
AWAY # 47 UAB 65 59 -2.52 +8.52
HOME #249 Youngstown State 82 52 +17.92 +12.08
AWAY # 16 Texas 59 74 -7.78 -7.22 below
HOME # 66 Kansas State 71 68 +3.89 -0.89 below
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State 70 60 +2.30 +7.70 above
AWAY # 4 Kansas 59 85 -11.25 -14.75 below
HOME # 3 Baylor 68 77 -6.90 -2.10 below
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 65 78 -9.23 -3.77 below
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 62 72 +0.62 -10.62 below
AWAY # 20 Arkansas 68 77 -6.63 -2.37
AWAY # 3 Baylor 77 81 -11.58 +7.58 above
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 53 60 -4.55 -2.45 below
HOME # 55 Iowa State 79 63 +2.89 +13.11 above
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 58 81 -2.38 -20.62 below
AWAY # 66 Kansas State 73 78 -0.79 -4.21 below
HOME # 4 Kansas -6.57 0.241
AWAY # 60 TCU -1.46 0.438
AWAY # 55 Iowa State -1.79 0.430
HOME # 16 Texas -3.10 0.362
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma -4.06 0.342
HOME # 60 TCU +3.22 0.635
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant
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