Big 12 projection, Round 13

Iowa State got the road win in Fort Worth, while West Virginia could not pull off a road
win in Manhattan, so the Mountaineers slide into last place in the conference.  Meanwhile,
Oklahoma State, despite losing in Lawrence, leapfrogged TCU, because the Horned Frogs's
home loss in a toss-up game hurt a lot more than a highly probable road loss by the
Cowboys.  But the biggest gainer of the round was Kansas State, whose home win over the
Mountaineers enabled the Wildcats to leapfrog both the Horned Frogs and the Cowboys into
the upper division.  Did they also earn a spot in the Big Dance as a result of being in
the top half of the Big 12?

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  4  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3 
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3 
# 12  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1 
# 16  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5 
# 64  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8 
# 49  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6 
# 56  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0 
# 32  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0 
# 55  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2 
# 50  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2 

                      Rd.10  Rd.11  Rd.12  Rd.13
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction   Prob
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------  ----
#  4  Kansas          14.7   14.1   14.2   14.4    10  2  @WVU (Sa)   KU  by  6.4  .754   
#  3  Baylor          12.6   12.9   13.2   12.6     9  4   TCU (Sa)   BU  by 12.5  .885   
# 12  Texas Tech      12.5   11.7   11.9   12.4     9  4  @UT  (Sa)                .457   
# 16  Texas           10.1   10.6   10.3   10.7     8  5   TTU (Sa)   UT  by  1.0  .543   
# 64  Kansas State     6.7    6.5    7.2    7.6     6  7  @OSU (Sa)                .353   
# 49  Oklahoma State   7.1    6.7    7.2    7.0     5  8   KSU (Sa)   OSU by  3.8  .647   
# 56  TCU              7.2    7.7    7.5    6.9     5  6  @BU  (Sa)                .115   
# 32  Oklahoma         6.4    7.2    7.0    6.6     4  9  @ISU (Sa)                .494   
# 55  Iowa State       6.9    6.2    5.6    6.2     4  9   OU  (Sa)   ISU by  0.2  .506   
# 50  West Virginia    5.9    6.4    5.9    5.4     3  9   KU  (Sa)                .245   

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 13.  Nobody else was even close.  It was
the second win of the season for Seven Overtimes.  RealTime pulled up the rear.  Greenfield retains the
season lead, with Dunkel as the bottom feeder.

Two road wins were projected for Round 13, but only one of them actually occurred (Texas at Oklahoma),
while one of the close projected home wins turned into a road win (Iowa State at TCU), so we are
three road wins ahead of the long-term average of one in three.  Only one road win is projected for
Round 14, namely Kansas at West Virginia.

Road wins (24 out of 63)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
5 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU  KSU         0 Kansas                                         +4 KU 
4 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU             0 Texas Tech                                     +3 BU
3 Kansas State   UT  TCU ISU                 1 Texas          KSU                             +2 TTU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +2 UT 
3 Texas          KSU TCU OU                  2 Oklahoma State KU  ISU                         -1 KSU
2 Iowa State     OSU TCU                     3 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU                     -1 OSU
2 Texas Tech     BU  WVU                     4 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU  KSU                 -1 TCU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         4 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU  BU                  -2 ISU          
1 Oklahoma State BU                          4 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU UT                  -3 OU 
0 West Virginia                              4 TCU            BU  UT  KSU ISU                 -3 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +1.26    West Virginia     8.54
Kansas State    +1.12    Kansas State      8.96
Iowa State      +1.08    Texas             9.00
Texas Tech      +0.79    Kansas            9.96
Kansas          +0.70    TCU              10.08
Oklahoma        +0.54    Texas Tech       10.34
Oklahoma State  +0.53    Baylor           10.64
TCU             +0.19    Oklahoma State   11.12
Texas           +0.18    Oklahoma         11.15
West Virginia   -1.13    Iowa State       11.47

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.21 +/- 0.27    Iowa State      +0.24 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    +0.17 +/- 0.25    Kansas State    +0.07 +/- 0.16
TCU             +0.15 +/- 0.32    Oklahoma        +0.03 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State  +0.07 +/- 0.31    Texas Tech      +0.02 +/- 0.16
Texas           -0.07 +/- 0.24    TCU             -0.04 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.08 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma State  -0.07 +/- 0.25
West Virginia   -0.14 +/- 0.24    Texas           -0.15 +/- 0.14
Kansas          -0.19 +/- 0.28    Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.28
Iowa State      -0.31 +/- 0.30    Baylor          -0.16 +/- 0.18
Baylor          -0.44 +/- 0.27    West Virginia   -0.17 +/- 0.18

We made it two-thirds of the way through the conference season with everybody still in
positive scoring margin territory.  Usually the weaker teams will run up gawdy scoring
margins against cupcake non-conference opponents, and then the numbers sag after
conference play begins.  Someone is bound to go negative before the post-season.  It
could happen to West Virginia this weekend, if Kansas can escape Morgantown with a
solid victory.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          78.92   Texas           58.12   Kansas          147.52   Baylor          +13.88
Baylor          77.31   Texas Tech      62.04   Baylor          140.73   Texas Tech      +11.42
Texas Tech      73.46   Iowa State      62.46   Oklahoma State  136.40   Kansas          +10.32
Oklahoma        69.58   Baylor          63.42   Texas Tech      135.50   Texas           +10.23
Oklahoma State  69.12   TCU             64.13   West Virginia   135.16   Oklahoma         +4.58
Texas           68.35   Kansas State    64.76   Oklahoma        134.58   Iowa State       +4.19
West Virginia   67.80   Oklahoma        65.00   Kansas State    132.28   TCU              +3.52
TCU             67.65   Oklahoma State  67.28   TCU             131.78   Kansas State     +2.76
Kansas State    67.52   West Virginia   67.36   Iowa State      129.12   Oklahoma State   +1.84
Iowa State      66.65   Kansas          68.60   Texas           126.46   West Virginia    +0.44

Just one team outside the Top 50 in schedule strength, and TCU is certain to make it
into the Top 50, given that their remaining seven games include two with Kansas, one
at Baylor (this weekend), one with Texas Tech, and one at Texas.  Seven teams are
already in he Top 25, and they won't change too much.  Oklahoma State was briefly
back on top of the conference, having played a tough opponent on the road, while
Kansas played a lower division opponent at home, but the revised ratings caused the
Cowboys to slide a few spots while Kansas remained steady.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          80.68 ( 9) down 1
Oklahoma State  80.61 (11) up   4
Kansas State    80.35 (16) down 7
Oklahoma        80.31 (17) even  
Baylor          80.12 (21) even  
West Virginia   79.96 (23) down 3
Iowa State      79.41 (25) even  
Texas Tech      78.66 (33) up   4
Texas           78.15 (43) up  10
TCU             77.53 (60) down 2