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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma State game
- asteroid
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3 years 3 weeks ago #28409
by asteroid
A concerning statistic: Kansas has played just four conference games above
expectation and seven below expectation. One of those four good games was
the conference season opener in Stillwater, typically a tough place for Kansas
to play, so there is some hope that the Jayhawks can put together another
above-expectation performance. Having gotten Clemence back may help. Either
Martin's knee needs to recover, or Yesefu needs to provide consistent help off
the bench, or Pettiford needs to provide consistent help off the bench, because
if our starting guards play 38 or 39 minutes, tired legs toward the end of games
will likely turn into more missed charities, and those can be crucial in close
games.
The various prognosticators are all picking Kansas to win. Dunkel is the
pessimist at just a 5.5 point margin. Colley's ratings imply a 16.7 point
margin, which is the most optimistic. Most are in the 10 to 11 point range,
with common opponents approaching 12 points.
None of the trend or mental toughness values are statistically significant,
but taken at face value (the Cowboys have a slightly positive trend), the
margin for Kansas drops to 9.4 points.
The two teams average 142 total points, which is exactly what Dunkel is
assuming, while Vegas has it at 144 points.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OSU KU Defensive Stats OSU KU
Points/Game 69.8 79.6 Opp Points/Game 66.5 68.3
Avg Score Margin +3.3 +11.3 Opp Effective FG % 46.6 47.6
Assists/Game 13.0 15.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.3 10.2
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.4 36.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.4 24.6
Effective FG % 48.6 55.8 Blocks/Game 5.2 4.3
Off Rebound % 31.5 33.7 Steals/Game 9.4 6.5
FTA/FGA 0.347 0.316 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.8 15.5
Turnover % 18.0 15.9
My Stats Comparison KU OSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.70 +0.56
inconsistency 10.22 11.35
trend -0.25 ± 0.30 +0.11 ± 0.34
mental toughness -0.17 ± 0.29 -0.05 ± 0.27
average total pts 147.92 136.33
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference, three of which Kansas has played
twice (Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma), and two of which Oklahoma State has played
twice (Texas, West Virginia), plus the head-to-head in Stillwater, giving us thirteen
scores to compare:
KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court) KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court)
OSU +13 UT at home ( +9 neutral court) OSU -5 UT on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU -4 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court) KU +6 OSU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court) KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
OSU -10 WVU on road ( -6 neutral court) OSU +23 WVU at home (+19 neutral court)
KU +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court) KU +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
OSU -21 TTU on road (-17 neutral court) OSU -21 TTU on road (-17 neutral court)
KU +17 OSU at home (+13 neutral court) KU +20 OSU at home (+16 neutral court)
KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court)
OSU +7 BU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court) KU +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
OSU -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court) OSU -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU +8 OSU at home ( +4 neutral court) KU +24 OSU at home (+20 neutral court)
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +2 OU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU +9 OU at home ( +5 neutral court) OSU +9 OU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU -3 OSU at home ( -7 neutral court) KU +6 OSU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
KU +19 OSU at home (+15 neutral court)
The average is 11.92 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 10.33 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points Avery Anderson III (guard)
most rebounds Isaac Likekele (guard)
most assists Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals Avery Anderson III (guard)
most blocks Moussa Cisse (forward)
most turnovers Avery Anderson III (guard)
most fouls Avery Anderson III (guard)
Reserve guard Chris Harris Jr. has been recuperating from surgery for a torn ACL;
no timetable for a return.
20-4 12-12
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +11.19 76 65 83 # 5 # 8 # 44 # 16
Sagarin Predictor +10.98 76 65 84.5 # 6 # 8 # 46 # 16
Sagarin Golden Mean +12.04 77 65 # 2 # 8 # 51 # 16
Sagarin Recent Games +10.31 76 66 # 78 # 8 # 47 # 16
Sagarin Eigenvector +15.71 79 63 90
Massey + 8.00 77 69 77 # 7 # 5 # 42 # 9
Pomeroy +10.50 75 65 # 8 # 3 # 49 # 7
Greenfield +10.50 77 66.5 # 7 # 4 # 35 # 21
Dunkel + 5.50 74 68 # 9 # 81
Vegas (via Dunkel) +10.50 77 67
Dolphin Predictive +10.78 78 67 82.7 # 8 # 2 # 33 # 19
Real Time +18.00 85 67 85.1 # 5 # 3 # 92 # 4
Seven Overtimes +14.00 78 64 86 # 3 # 1 # 76 # 6
DPPI +12.54 77 65 83.6 # 7 # 2 # 75 # 4
ESPN BPI +12.70 86.9 # 10 # 4 # 43 # 9
Whitlock +13.34 # 5 # 2 # 60 # 5
Colley Matrix +16.73 # 2 # 3 # 86 # 6
NCAA NET # 8 # 48
LRMC # 15* # # 26* #
common opponents +11.92
Massey composite # 4 # 60
Pomeroy offense # 3 #127
Pomeroy defense # 40 # 14
Pomeroy tempo # 80 # 98
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +11.96 77.3 65.9 84.3
scatter 2.97 2.6 1.6 3.6
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 21 Michigan State 87 74 +4.87 +8.13
HOME #216 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.31 +1.69
HOME #232 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.17 +3.83
NEUT # 85 North Texas 71 59 +11.76 +0.24
NEUT # 48 Dayton 73 74 +8.73 -9.73
NEUT #102 Iona College 96 83 +13.63 -0.63
AWAY # 61 St. John's 95 75 +7.44 +12.56
HOME #170 UTEP 78 52 +21.92 +4.08
HOME #118 Missouri 102 65 +17.84 +19.16
HOME #126 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +18.59 -10.59
HOME #121 Nevada 88 61 +18.08 +8.92
HOME #103 George Mason 76 67 +16.40 -7.40
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.08 +4.92
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.38 -7.62
HOME # 57 Iowa State 62 61 +11.99 -10.99
HOME # 47 West Virginia 85 59 +11.11 +14.89
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.49 -1.49
AWAY # 62 Kansas State 78 75 +7.67 -4.67
HOME # 13 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.52 -1.52
HOME # 5 Kentucky 62 80 +2.36 -20.36
AWAY # 57 Iowa State 70 61 +7.09 +1.91
HOME # 3 Baylor 83 59 +1.44 +22.56
AWAY # 16 Texas 76 79 +0.70 -3.70
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 71 69 +9.39 -7.39
HOME # 46 Oklahoma State +10.98 0.845
AWAY # 47 West Virginia +6.21 0.743
HOME # 62 Kansas State +12.57 0.904
AWAY # 3 Baylor -3.46 0.370
AWAY # 54 TCU +6.84 0.748
HOME # 54 TCU +11.74 0.875
HOME # 16 Texas +5.60 0.718
Here is Oklahoma State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #225 UT Arlington 88 45 +16.32 +26.68
HOME #144 Oakland-Mich. 55 56 +11.62 -12.62
HOME #287 Prairie View A&M 72 59 +20.73 -7.73
HOME #253 UMass Lowell 80 58 +18.40 +3.60
NEUT #111 NC State 74 68 +6.07 -0.07
HOME #174 College of Charleston 96 66 +13.45 +16.55
AWAY #137 Oral Roberts 78 77 +6.19 -5.19
HOME # 77 Wichita State 51 60 +5.08 -14.08
HOME # 23 Xavier-Ohio 71 77 -0.61 -5.39
HOME #172 Cleveland State 98 93 +13.43 -8.43
NEUT # 7 Houston 61 72 -8.08 -2.92
HOME # 6 Kansas 63 74 -6.08 -4.92
HOME # 16 Texas 64 51 -2.93 +15.93
AWAY # 47 West Virginia 60 70 -2.32 -7.68
AWAY # 13 Texas Tech 57 78 -8.91 -12.09
AWAY # 3 Baylor 61 54 -11.99 +18.99
HOME # 54 TCU 57 56 +3.21 -2.21
AWAY # 16 Texas 51 56 -7.83 +2.83
HOME # 57 Iowa State 81 84 +3.46 -6.46
AWAY # 38 Florida 72 81 -3.55 -5.45
AWAY # 62 Kansas State 68 71 -0.86 -2.14
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 64 55 +0.86 +8.14
AWAY # 54 TCU 73 77 -1.69 -2.31
HOME # 47 West Virginia 81 58 +2.58 +20.42
AWAY # 6 Kansas -10.98 0.155
HOME # 62 Kansas State +4.04 0.653
HOME # 3 Baylor -7.09 0.260
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma -4.04 0.360
AWAY # 57 Iowa State -1.44 0.450
HOME # 13 Texas Tech -4.01 0.356
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, hoshi, jaythawk1
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