Big 12 projection, Round 12

Even though Oklahoma played above expectation, the loss to Kansas, coupled with the
wins by Oklahoma State and Kansas State, caused the Sooners to slide from sixth place
to eighth place.  Iowa State has now been eliminated from the conference championship,
as the best they can do is to end with 9 conference wins, and either Baylor or Kansas
is guaranteed to have at least 10 wins.  Effectively, however, the bottom half of the
conference is out of the running, with Texas and TCU on life support.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  6  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3 
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3 
# 13  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1 
# 16  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5 
# 54  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0 
# 47  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6 
# 61  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8 
# 33  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0 
# 48  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2 
# 57  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2 

                      Rd.10  Rd.11  Rd.12
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction   Prob
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------  ----
#  6  Kansas          14.7   14.1   14.2     9  2   OSU (Mo)   KU  by 11.0  .846          
#  3  Baylor          12.6   12.9   13.2     9  3  @TTU (We)   BU  by  0.6  .522          
# 13  Texas Tech      12.5   11.7   11.9     8  4   BU  (We)                .478          
# 16  Texas           10.1   10.6   10.3     7  5  @OU  (Tu)   UT  by  1.4  .553          
# 54  TCU              7.2    7.7    7.5     5  5   ISU (Tu)   TCU by  2.6  .595          
# 47  Oklahoma State   7.1    6.7    7.2     5  7  @KU  (Mo)                .154          
# 61  Kansas State     6.7    6.5    7.2     5  7   WVU (Mo)   KSU by  1.0  .545          
# 33  Oklahoma         6.4    7.2    7.0     4  8   UT  (Tu)                .447          
# 48  West Virginia    5.9    6.4    5.9     3  8  @KSU (Mo)                .455          
# 57  Iowa State       6.9    6.2    5.6     3  9  @TCU (Tu)                .405          

No road wins were projected for Round 12, but one happened.  Two road wins are projected for
Round 13, though both are close games and might not happen; however, two of the home favorites
are also expected to be close games, so those could turn into road wins.

Road wins (22 out of 58)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
5 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU  KSU         0 Kansas                                         +4 KU 
4 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU             0 Texas Tech                                     +3 BU
3 Kansas State   UT  TCU ISU                 1 Texas          KSU                             +2 TTU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +1 UT 
2 Texas          KSU TCU                     2 Oklahoma State KU  ISU                          0 TCU
2 Texas Tech     BU  WVU                     3 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU                     -1 KSU
1 Iowa State     OSU                         3 TCU            BU  UT  KSU                     -1 OSU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         3 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU                     -2 OU           
1 Oklahoma State BU                          4 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU  KSU                 -3 ISU
0 West Virginia                              4 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU  BU                  -3 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +1.28    West Virginia     8.72
Iowa State      +1.25    Kansas State      9.02
Kansas State    +1.11    Texas             9.14
Texas Tech      +0.75    Kansas           10.20
Kansas          +0.65    TCU              10.23
Oklahoma        +0.59    Texas Tech       10.37
Oklahoma State  +0.54    Baylor           10.63
TCU             +0.28    Oklahoma         11.27
Texas           +0.23    Oklahoma State   11.39
West Virginia   -1.15    Iowa State       11.59

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.24 +/- 0.35    Iowa State      +0.23 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    +0.17 +/- 0.27    Kansas State    +0.06 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma        +0.03 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State  +0.12 +/- 0.34    Texas Tech      -0.01 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma        -0.09 +/- 0.32    TCU             -0.03 +/- 0.22
Texas           -0.10 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.27
West Virginia   -0.11 +/- 0.26    Baylor          -0.13 +/- 0.18
Kansas          -0.24 +/- 0.30    West Virginia   -0.15 +/- 0.18
Baylor          -0.39 +/- 0.29    Texas           -0.17 +/- 0.14
Iowa State      -0.40 +/- 0.32    Kansas          -0.18 +/- 0.29

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          79.12   Texas           57.40   Kansas          147.92   Baylor          +14.68
Baylor          77.40   Texas Tech      61.52   Baylor          140.12   Texas Tech      +11.64
Texas Tech      73.16   Baylor          62.72   Oklahoma State  136.33   Texas           +10.40
Oklahoma State  69.33   Iowa State      63.00   Texas Tech      134.68   Kansas          +10.33
Oklahoma        69.32   Oklahoma        64.32   West Virginia   134.50   Oklahoma         +5.00
TCU             68.50   Kansas State    64.33   Oklahoma        133.64   Iowa State       +4.08
Texas           67.80   TCU             64.50   TCU             133.00   TCU              +4.00
West Virginia   67.50   Oklahoma State  67.00   Kansas State    131.50   Kansas State     +2.83
Kansas State    67.17   West Virginia   67.00   Iowa State      130.08   Oklahoma State   +2.33
Iowa State      67.08   Kansas          68.79   Texas           125.20   West Virginia    +0.50

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          80.68 ( 8) even  
Kansas State    80.51 ( 9) up   2
Oklahoma State  80.10 (15) down 2
Oklahoma        80.06 (17) up   3
West Virginia   79.69 (20) up   1
Baylor          79.61 (21) up   1
Iowa State      79.15 (25) even  
Texas Tech      78.06 (37) even  
Texas           77.65 (53) up  13
TCU             77.41 (58) up   9