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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
- asteroid
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2 years 9 months ago #28389
by asteroid
"Texas has yet to win a game when they've allowed that many [60s] points."
And once again I jinxed the Jayhawks. Raise your hand if you expected total
points of 155. On the one hand, I feel bad for the Jayhawks, because that
was a winnable game. Kansas should have gone into halftime tied, but went
braindead and gave up 5 quick points. Then a repeat in the second half,
giving up 7 unanswered points at the end to squander a 4 point lead. On the
other hand, you can beat the odds by only so much, and history has shown that
the actual conference record at the end of the season differs from the
predicted conference record made at the beginning of the season usually by
a win or two, more rarely in the two to three wins range, and almost never
by more than three wins. Recall that Kansas was predicted to finish with a
14-4 conference record, so you had to expect more losses. The game in Waco
is still a projected loss (though it would have to be quite a turnaround
from the result in Lawrence), and the most likely loss of the rest was the
game in Austin. From a tournament seeding perspective, yesterday was NOT a
"bad" loss. But still.
Well, it's an early tip, so I won't spend much time with commentary. At
least Sagarin and Dunkel have their predictions up, so I won't have to
stay up much later. It is worth noting that after a brutal stretch, Kansas
is now into a four-game stretch with three double-digit predicted margins
(all home games) and one two-possession margin (a road trip to Morgantown),
so boosting that conference record to 12-2 ought to be eminently doable.
Meanwhile, Baylor faces Texas in Waco, where the Bears have lost twice so
far this season.
Oklahoma has played above-expectation by more than 10 points on four
eccasions, including their most recent game against Texas Tech, and that
would be enough to overcome the margin for today's game. Out of 24 games
played, that represents a one in six chance of winning, about 16.7 percent.
Similarly, Kansas has played below-expectation by more than 10 points on
four occasions. Out of 23 games played, that represents a 17.4 percent
chance of losing. Those average to 17 percent chance of losing, compared
to the 17.7 percent chance computed from the average of all the various
prognostications.
The trends for Kansas and Oklahoma are effectively identical. The Sooners
have the better mental toughness rating, but neither is statistically
significant. The trend analysis bumps up the margin for Kansas by a
fraction of a point to 10.6.
Dunkel is the most optimistic at 17 points, followed closely by Colley.
The most pessimistic is Sagarin's Recent Games, which favors the Jayhawks
by a hair under 8 points, very similar to Massey's margin. Common
opponents has it at 11.6 points, thanks to the Baylor comparison. The
average of the various prognostications is 11.4 points with Kansas on top.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 69.8 80.0 Opp Points/Game 63.6 68.3
Avg Score Margin +6.1 +11.7 Opp Effective FG % 47.7 47.3
Assists/Game 14.3 16.1 Off Rebounds/Gm 6.9 10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 32.4 37.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.9 24.7
Effective FG % 54.8 55.7 Blocks/Game 1.8 4.2
Off Rebound % 24.6 33.8 Steals/Game 7.8 6.6
FTA/FGA 0.275 0.310 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.8 15.6
Turnover % 19.8 16.0
My Stats Comparison KU OU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.74 +0.48
inconsistency 10.24 11.49
trend -0.17 ± 0.33 -0.17 ± 0.34
mental toughness -0.19 ± 0.29 0.00 ± 0.21
average total pts 148.26 133.38
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference, two of which Kansas has played
twice (Iowa State and Texas Tech), and one of which Oklahoma has played twice (Baylor),
plus the head-to-head in Norman, giving us eleven scores to compare:
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OU +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +13 OU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court) KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court)
OU -10 BU on road ( -6 neutral court) OU -14 BU at home (-18 neutral court)
KU +30 OU at home (+26 neutral court) KU +42 OU at home (+38 neutral court)
KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court) KU +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
OU +13 ISU at home ( +9 neutral court) OU +13 ISU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU -8 OU at home (-12 neutral court) KU +8 OU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU -3 UT on road ( +1 neutral court)
OU -14 UT on road (-10 neutral court)
KU +15 OU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
OU +10 WVU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU +12 OU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
OU -9 OSU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +24 OU at home (+20 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court) KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
OU +15 TTU at home (+11 neutral court) OU +15 TTU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU -8 OU at home (-12 neutral court) KU -11 OU at home (-15 neutral court)
KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +11 OU at home ( +7 neutral court)
The average is 11.64 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 16.50 points.
The Baylor comparison is particularly favorable for Kansas.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Umoja Gibson (guard)
most points Umoja Gibson (guard)
most rebounds Jalen Hill (forward)
most assists Jordan Goldwire (guard)
most steals Jordan Goldwire (guard)
most blocks Jalen Hill (forward)
most turnovers Jordan Goldwire (guard)
most fouls Tanner Groves (forward)
Reserve guard Marvin Johnson has been out for the last three games with an ankle
injury and is not expected to play. Reserve guard Bijan Cortes is supposedly out
for today's game for unstated reasons; he's ninth on the team in minutes played.
19-4 14-10
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +10.08 74 64 81 # 3 # 8 # 34 # 22
Sagarin Predictor +10.00 74 64 82.1 # 5 # 8 # 35 # 22
Sagarin Golden Mean +10.76 75 64 # 2 # 8 # 36 # 22
Sagarin Recent Games + 7.94 73 65 # 8 # 8 # 30 # 22
Sagarin Eigenvector +13.96 76 62 88
Massey + 8.00 75 67 77 # 7 # 6 # 34 # 23
Pomeroy + 9.46 75 65 # 6 # 2 # 30 # 17
Greenfield +10.50 76 66 # 7 # 5 # 33 # 24
Dunkel +17.00 82 65 # 9 # 54
Vegas (via Dunkel) +10.50 76 66
Dolphin Predictive + 9.61 76 67 80.1 # 6 # 2 # 28 # 18
Real Time +13.00 82 69 76.6 # 3 # 3 # 36 # 26
Seven Overtimes +11.00 76 65 84 # 3 # 1 # 42 # 44
DPPI +12.91 80 67 86.2 # 6 # 2 # 69 # 24
ESPN BPI +11.60 86.0 # 10 # 7 # 37 # 18
Whitlock +11.29 # 5 # 2 # 38 # 17
Colley Matrix +16.76 # 2 # 3 # 72 # 23
NCAA NET # 7 # 40
LRMC # 15* # # 43* #
common opponents +11.64
Massey composite # 4 # 49
Pomeroy offense # 3 # 62
Pomeroy defense # 36 # 30
Pomeroy tempo # 70 #262
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +11.44 76.4 65.4 82.3
scatter 2.52 2.9 1.7 4.1
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 23 Michigan State 87 74 +5.54 +7.46
HOME #209 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.24 +1.76
HOME #234 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.54 +3.46
NEUT # 88 North Texas 71 59 +12.31 -0.31
NEUT # 55 Dayton 73 74 +9.59 -10.59
NEUT #104 Iona College 96 83 +13.95 -0.95
AWAY # 63 St. John's 95 75 +8.15 +11.85
HOME #163 UTEP 78 52 +21.69 +4.31
HOME #120 Missouri 102 65 +18.34 +18.66
HOME #124 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +18.88 -10.88
HOME #119 Nevada 88 61 +18.30 +8.70
HOME #100 George Mason 76 67 +16.16 -7.16
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.85 +4.15
AWAY # 14 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.27 -7.73
HOME # 53 Iowa State 62 61 +12.09 -11.09
HOME # 45 West Virginia 85 59 +11.09 +14.91
AWAY # 35 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.95 -1.95
AWAY # 64 Kansas State 78 75 +8.17 -5.17
HOME # 14 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.79 -1.79
HOME # 7 Kentucky 62 80 +2.92 -20.92
AWAY # 53 Iowa State 70 61 +7.03 +1.97
HOME # 3 Baylor 83 59 +2.21 +21.79
AWAY # 16 Texas 76 79 +0.51 -3.51
HOME # 35 Oklahoma +10.01 0.821
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +11.91 0.872
AWAY # 45 West Virginia +6.03 0.746
HOME # 64 Kansas State +13.23 0.914
AWAY # 3 Baylor -2.85 0.392
AWAY # 56 TCU +7.07 0.754
HOME # 56 TCU +12.13 0.880
HOME # 16 Texas +5.57 0.717
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #334 Northwestern State 77 59 +26.33 -8.33
HOME #302 UTSA 96 44 +23.42 +28.58
NEUT #172 East Carolina 79 74 +12.22 -7.22
NEUT #210 Indiana State 87 63 +14.27 +9.73
NEUT # 57 Utah State 70 73 +2.28 -5.28
HOME #350 Houston Baptist 57 40 +29.22 -12.22
AWAY # 95 Central Florida(UCF) 65 62 +2.96 +0.04
HOME # 33 Florida 74 67 +2.33 +4.67
HOME #112 Butler 62 66 +10.30 -14.30
NEUT # 22 Arkansas 88 66 -2.30 +24.30
HOME #232 UT Arlington 70 50 +18.02 +1.98
HOME #288 Alcorn State 72 48 +22.44 +1.56
HOME # 64 Kansas State 71 69 +5.75 -3.75
AWAY # 3 Baylor 74 84 -10.33 +0.33
HOME # 53 Iowa State 79 66 +4.61 +8.39
AWAY # 16 Texas 52 66 -6.97 -7.03
AWAY # 56 TCU 58 59 -0.41 -0.59
HOME # 5 Kansas 64 67 -4.95 +1.95
HOME # 3 Baylor 51 65 -5.27 -8.73
AWAY # 45 West Virginia 72 62 -1.45 +11.45
AWAY # 10 Auburn 68 86 -8.35 -9.65
HOME # 56 TCU 63 72 +4.65 -13.65
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 55 64 -0.63 -8.37
HOME # 14 Texas Tech 70 55 -2.69 +17.69
AWAY # 5 Kansas -10.01 0.179
HOME # 16 Texas -1.91 0.427
AWAY # 53 Iowa State -0.45 0.484
AWAY # 14 Texas Tech -7.75 0.241
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +4.43 0.655
HOME # 45 West Virginia +3.61 0.643
AWAY # 64 Kansas State +0.69 0.527
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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