Big 12 projection, Round 11

With the bottom six teams so close to one another, some shuffling is to be expected after each
round.  Oklahoma's upset win over Texas Tech enabled the Sooners to leapfrom three teams into
sixth place in the projected standings.  Iowa State's unexpectedly large loss to West Virginia
caused the Cyclones to slide into last place.  The cushion for Kansas shrank by almost a full
win, but Texas is poised to help Kansas on Saturday by even more than it hurt on Monday.


                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  5  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3 
#  4  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3 
# 13  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1 
# 16  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5 
# 56  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0 
# 35  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0 
# 50  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6 
# 66  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8 
# 47  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2 
# 57  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2 

                      Rd.10  Rd.11
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction   Prob
----  -------------- ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------  ----
#  5  Kansas          14.7   14.1     8  2   OU  (Sa)   KU  by 10.0  .821
#  4  Baylor          12.6   12.9     8  3   UT  (Sa)   BU  by  6.0  .726
# 13  Texas Tech      12.5   11.7     7  4   TCU (Sa)   TTU by  9.8  .826
# 16  Texas           10.1   10.6     7  4  @BU  (Sa)                .274
# 56  TCU              7.2    7.7     5  4  @TTU (Sa)                .174
# 35  Oklahoma         6.4    7.2     4  7  @KU  (Sa)                .179
# 50  Oklahoma State   7.1    6.7     4  7   WVU (Sa)   OSU by  1.7  .573
# 66  Kansas State     6.7    6.5     4  7  @ISU (Sa)                .367
# 47  West Virginia    5.9    6.4     3  7  @OSU (Sa)                .427
# 57  Iowa State       6.9    6.2     3  8   KSU (Sa)   ISU by  3.5  .633

RealTime took honors for best prognostications in Round 11.  Well, even a broken clock is right twice
a day.  Honorable mention to the BPI.  But RealTime did pick Texas over Kansas, as did several others,
but only RealTime picked Oklahoma over Texas Tech.  Dunkel never changed that 26 point win prediction
for Kansas, so Dunkel easily took last place in Round 11 and racked up enough points to take a commanding
lead for last place in the season standings.  Greenfield retains the season lead over Vegas by a half
point.

Three road wins were projected for Round 11, but only one happened.  No road wins are projected
for Round 12.

Road wins (21 out of 53)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
5 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU  KSU         0 Kansas                                         +4 KU 
4 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU             0 Texas Tech                                     +3 BU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  1 Texas          KSU                             +2 TTU
2 Kansas State   UT  TCU                     2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +1 UT 
2 Texas          KSU TCU                     2 Oklahoma State KU  ISU                          0 TCU
2 Texas Tech     BU  WVU                     3 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU                      -1 OSU
1 Iowa State     OSU                         3 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU                     -2 ISU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         3 TCU            BU  UT  KSU                     -2 KSU          
1 Oklahoma State BU                          3 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU                     -2 OU 
0 West Virginia                              4 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU  BU                  -3 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +1.44    West Virginia     7.79
Baylor          +1.25    Kansas State      9.05
Kansas State    +1.05    Texas             9.11
Kansas          +0.70    Kansas           10.24
Texas Tech      +0.66    TCU              10.38
Oklahoma        +0.48    Texas Tech       10.55
TCU             +0.40    Baylor           10.63
Oklahoma State  +0.29    Oklahoma State   10.76
Texas           +0.22    Oklahoma         11.46
West Virginia   -0.58    Iowa State       11.53

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.30 +/- 0.38    Iowa State      +0.22 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      +0.14 +/- 0.32    Kansas State    +0.05 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.21
West Virginia   +0.07 +/- 0.25    Texas Tech      -0.01 +/- 0.17
Texas           +0.02 +/- 0.27    TCU             -0.02 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  -0.10 +/- 0.35    Oklahoma State  -0.04 +/- 0.25
Kansas          -0.18 +/- 0.33    West Virginia   -0.11 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma        -0.18 +/- 0.34    Texas           -0.12 +/- 0.15
Iowa State      -0.32 +/- 0.34    Baylor          -0.14 +/- 0.18
Baylor          -0.53 +/- 0.30    Kansas          -0.18 +/- 0.29

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          79.57   Texas           56.54   Kansas          148.26   Baylor          +14.75
Baylor          77.38   Texas Tech      61.12   Baylor          140.00   Texas Tech      +11.75
Texas Tech      72.88   Iowa State      62.42   Oklahoma State  136.22   Texas           +11.37
Oklahoma        69.25   Baylor          62.62   West Virginia   134.30   Kansas          +10.87
Oklahoma State  68.91   TCU             63.76   Texas Tech      134.00   Oklahoma         +5.12
TCU             68.38   Oklahoma        64.12   Oklahoma        133.38   Iowa State       +4.67
Texas           67.92   Kansas State    64.22   TCU             132.14   TCU              +4.62
West Virginia   67.83   West Virginia   66.48   Kansas State    130.96   Kansas State     +2.52
Iowa State      67.08   Oklahoma State  67.30   Iowa State      129.50   Oklahoma State   +1.61
Kansas State    66.74   Kansas          68.70   Texas           124.46   West Virginia    +1.35

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          80.54 ( 8) even  
Kansas State    80.30 (11) up   4
Oklahoma State  80.21 (13) even  
Oklahoma        79.40 (20) up   2
West Virginia   79.36 (21) down 3
Baylor          79.21 (22) up   2
Iowa State      79.02 (25) up   4
Texas Tech      77.96 (37) up  14
Texas           76.70 (66) up   8
TCU             76.63 (67) up   1