predictions for Texas game

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asteroid
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2 years 9 months ago #28346 by asteroid

Texas allows the fewest points in the Big 12 at just 55.6 per game.  Some attribute
that to a stellar defense, but some of that has to do with their pace of the game.
Their defense *is* good, but only 9th-best among Division I teams, according to
Pomeroy (note that Pomeroy has Texas Tech with the 2nd-best defense in Division I,
and Kansas managed to score 67 against them in their crib, and 75 in Allen Field
House, in the 40 minutes of regulation).  Meanwhile, the Longhorns' tempo is ranked
#347 by Pomeroy, and that's out of 358 teams, making Texas the 12th-slowest-playing
team in Division I.

Now, let's look at what other teams have done against the Longhorns.  Gonzaga
scored 86 against Texas in the second game of the season.  That's the most Texas
has given up, and it was a losing effort.  The second-most allowed by Texas was
79 points to Iowa State in Ames, and that was also a losing effort.  Third-most
was 77 points to Texas Tech in Lubbock, and that was another losing effort.
Fourth-most was 66 points to Kansas State, at home in Austin, and that was yet
again another losing effort.  Fifth-most was 64 points at Seton Hall, another
losing effort.  Tied for fifth-most with 64 points was the Oklahoma State game
in Stillwater, another losing effort.  You have to get all the way down to the
seventh-most points allowed, 59 to West Virginia, at home in Austin, before you
find a game that Texas actually won.  So they may hold opponents to low scores,
but they struggle to score themselves.  If Kansas can score in the 60s, Texas
has yet to win a game when they've allowed that many points.  And Kansas *is*
the Big 12's highest scoring team.  It is worth noting that despite allowing
79 points to Iowa State in Ames, Texas held the Cyclones to just 41 points in
Austin on Saturday.  The Cyclones were as cold as the weather in Texas over the
weekend.

The prognosticators are split over this game.  RealTime has Texas by 5 points,
the most pessimistic of the lot, but RealTime is known to use a huge home court
advantage, so this particular prediction is not too surprising.  But the BPI
has Texas by 2.2 points, the DPPI has Texas by  1.1 points, Massey has Texas by
1 point, Pomeroy has Texas by a quarter of a point, and Sagarin Recent Games has
Texas by a sixth of a point.  The rest are picking Kansas, with Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis and Colley equally optimistic with a margin of 7.7 points
in favor of Kansas.  But nowhere is the split is more obvious than it is with
Greenfield.  A few hours ago, when I started preparing the data for this posting,
Greenfield had picked Texas by 1.5 points, but he's now got Kansas by a point!

I don't know if Dunkel screwed up again, or if he took notice of Saturday's
drubbing of Baylor and is predicting a repeat, but at of 14:30 UT, he has
Kansas by 26 points.  I've computed the averages below without that outlier
prediction.  But it would be nice.  Dunkel has it as just 118 total points,
a full 5 points fewer than Texas games usually total, and 30 points fewer
than Kansas games usually total.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UT      KU      Defensive Stats      UT      KU
Points/Game         68.2    80.2     Opp Points/Game     54.9    67.8
Avg Score Margin   +13.3   +12.4     Opp Effective FG %  45.1    47.4
Assists/Game        14.1    16.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.7    10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.7    37.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.6    24.7
Effective FG %      51.9    55.4     Blocks/Game          3.4     4.2
Off Rebound %       30.7    34.2     Steals/Game          8.4     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.299   0.304     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.1    15.4
Turnover %          16.3    15.8

My Stats Comparison        KU             UT
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.72           +0.30    
inconsistency         10.41            9.19    
trend                 -0.15 ± 0.36     0.00 ± 0.30
mental toughness      -0.17 ± 0.31    -0.14 ± 0.15
average total pts      147.95         123.13    

Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas has played
twice (Texas Tech), two of which Texas has played twice (Kansas State, Oklahoma State),
and one of which both have played twice (Iowa State), in which case I'll use only the
home-home and road-road permutations, giving us ten scores to compare:

KU  +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
UT  +15 WVU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU   +7 UT  on road (+11 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UT  +13 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     UT   -1 KSU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU  -14 UT  on road (-10 neutral court)     KU   +8 UT  on road (+12 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
UT  -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)     UT   +5 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +20 UT  on road (+24 neutral court)     KU  +10 UT  on road (+14 neutral court)

KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)
UT  +14 OU  at home (+10 neutral court)
KU   -7 UT  on road ( -3 neutral court)

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
UT   -9 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)     UT  +22 ISU at home (+18 neutral court)
KU  +14 UT  on road (+18 neutral court)     KU  -25 UT  on road (-21 neutral court)

KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
UT  -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)     UT  -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU   +1 UT  on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +4 UT  on road ( +8 neutral court)

The average is 1.80 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 13.60 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Marcus Carr (guard)
most points        Timmy Allen (forward)
most rebounds      Timmy Allen (forward)
most assists       Marcus Carr (guard)
most steals        Andrew Jones (guard)
most blocks        Dylan Disu (forward)
most turnovers     Marcus Carr (guard)
most fouls         two-way tie


                                                          19-3           17-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Texas 
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        + 1.28   64   63       55       #  3   #  8    # 15   # 74
Sagarin Predictor      + 1.05   64   63       54.3     #  4   #  8    # 16   # 74 
Sagarin Golden Mean    + 2.23   65   62                #  2   #  8    # 16   # 74 
Sagarin Recent Games   - 0.16   63   63                #  7   #  8    # 13   # 74 
Sagarin Eigenvector    + 7.67   67   60       76    
Massey                 - 1.00   66   67       47       #  5   #  8    # 15   # 75
Pomeroy                - 0.25   65   66                #  8   #  3    # 14   # 75
Greenfield             + 1.00   68   67                #  6   #  6    # 15   # 24
Dunkel                 +26.00   72   46                #  9           # 20
Vegas (via Dunkel)     + 1.50   68   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 0.30   66   66       51.1     #  6   #  4    # 14   # 14
Real Time              - 5.00   73   78       39.6     #  1   #  2    # 22   #118 
Seven Overtimes        + 1.00   68   67       75       #  2   #  1    # 39   # 76
DPPI                   - 1.10   68   69       46.5     #  6   #  2    # 14   # 77 
ESPN BPI               - 2.20                 41.2     # 10   #  7    # 16   # 50
Whitlock               + 2.97                          #  6   #  2    # 19   # 72
Colley Matrix          + 7.66                          #  2   #  2    # 37   # 84
NCAA NET                                               #  8           # 15 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 28*  #   
common opponents       + 1.80         
Massey composite                                       #  4           # 16
Pomeroy offense                                        #  3           # 42
Pomeroy defense                                        # 30           #  9
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 79           #347
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 1.10   66.5 66.0     54.0
scatter                  3.09    2.6  4.4     13.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to where it
started at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 21 Michigan State              87  74    +5.19    +7.81
HOME   #210 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.59    +1.41
HOME   #219 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.10    +3.90
NEUT   # 86 North Texas                 71  59   +12.37    -0.37
NEUT   # 59 Dayton                      73  74   +10.29   -11.29
NEUT   # 99 Iona College                96  83   +13.67    -0.67
AWAY   # 66 St. John's                  95  75    +8.33   +11.67
HOME   #164 UTEP                        78  52   +22.17    +3.83
HOME   #117 Missouri                   102  65   +18.42   +18.58
HOME   #124 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +19.41   -11.41
HOME   #122 Nevada                      88  61   +19.15    +7.85
HOME   #103 George Mason                76  67   +16.71    -7.71
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma State              74  63    +7.08    +3.92
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.43    -7.57
HOME   # 50 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.90   -10.90
HOME   # 49 West Virginia               85  59   +11.86   +14.14
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma                    67  64    +5.69    -2.69
AWAY   # 64 Kansas State                78  75    +8.29    -5.29
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.71    -1.71
HOME   #  7 Kentucky                    62  80    +3.17   -21.17
AWAY   # 50 Iowa State                  70  61    +6.76    +2.24
HOME   #  6 Baylor                      83  59    +2.76   +21.24
AWAY   # 16 Texas                                 +1.05             0.543
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma                             +10.83             0.843
HOME   # 51 Oklahoma State                       +12.22             0.875
AWAY   # 49 West Virginia                         +6.72             0.772
HOME   # 64 Kansas State                         +13.43             0.915
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                -2.38             0.411
AWAY   # 58 TCU                                   +7.60             0.764
HOME   # 58 TCU                                  +12.74             0.886
HOME   # 16 Texas                                 +6.19             0.736

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #352 Houston Baptist             92  48   +33.71   +10.29
AWAY   #  1 Gonzaga                     74  86   -10.38    -1.62
HOME   #206 Northern Colorado           62  49   +20.76    -7.76
HOME   #281 San Jose State              79  45   +25.79    +8.21
HOME   #224 California Baptist          68  44   +21.68    +2.32
HOME   #188 Sam Houston State           73  57   +19.53    -3.53
HOME   #287 UTRGV                       88  58   +26.26    +3.74
AWAY   # 27 Seton Hall                  60  64    +0.40    -4.40
HOME   #355 Ark.-Pine Bluff             63  31   +35.73    -3.73
NEUT   # 90 Stanford                    60  53    +9.08    -2.08
HOME   #319 Alabama State               68  48   +28.68    -8.68
HOME   #349 Incarnate Word              78  33   +33.19   +11.81
HOME   # 49 West Virginia               74  59    +8.24    +6.76
AWAY   # 64 Kansas State                70  57    +4.67    +8.33
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma State              51  64    +3.46   -16.46
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma                    66  52    +7.21    +6.79
AWAY   # 50 Iowa State                  70  79    +3.14   -12.14
HOME   # 64 Kansas State                65  66    +9.81   -10.81
HOME   # 51 Oklahoma State              56  51    +8.60    -3.60
AWAY   # 58 TCU                         73  50    +3.98   +19.02
HOME   # 13 Tennessee                   52  51    +1.22    -0.22
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  64  77    -4.05    -8.95
HOME   # 50 Iowa State                  63  41    +8.28   +13.72
HOME   #  4 Kansas                                -1.05             0.457
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                -6.00             0.274
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma                              +2.07             0.580
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +1.09             0.545
HOME   # 58 TCU                                   +9.12             0.819
AWAY   # 49 West Virginia                         +3.10             0.645
HOME   #  6 Baylor                                -0.86             0.466
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                                -6.19             0.264

The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, newtonhawk, jaythawk1

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konza63
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c'85 Towering toward the Blue

2 years 9 months ago #28347 by konza63

This will be the first game involving Jerrance Howard for the burnt orange. As you'll recall, he left KU and Self for Texas and Beard over the off-season, in what was a lateral move. I suspect he will be the guy on the UT staff who prepared tonight's scouting report, since he was an assistant at KU for many years and presumably knows Self's tendencies inside and out.

Just an added wrinkle to tonight's game that hasn't been there before. I suspect it will add a little extra juice to this one for Self. Hope the guys come out of Austin with a win - this is one of the 4 truly tough games left on our schedule, and would go a long way toward advancing KU's path to the league title (outright or shared).

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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AZhawk87
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2 years 9 months ago #28351 by AZhawk87

The Howard move was bizarre/fascinating to me. At first I thought he was leaving to put distance between himself and any KU recruiting wrongdoings, as he's been at the center of our recruiting for several years (including most of the guys we've had issues with). But then, why would TX take someone who might be involved in that mess, particularly from a school in its own conference.

Then I look at Hudy going to UT, and then Howard. Maybe UT just has the $$ to cherry pick the best from KU to improve their program, and to get an inside scoop advantage to KU's and Self's mindset. Maybe UT is actually a stepping stone for KU folks to move to a larger program with more resources.

I think Hudy may already be gone, so not sure that worked out for her, and we'll see how things go for Howard.

Either way, TX taking our people in the same conference is just strange.

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CorpusJayhawk
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2 years 9 months ago #28353 by CorpusJayhawk

I was never a Jerrance Howard fan. I think he was a really weak link in the coaching staff. Joe Dooley was the stud and Kurtis Townsend is right there as well. I personally think Jeremy Case is a stud and possibly a future super stud. Q is also a stud. I think Norm is decent but it seems to me our bigs have not developed quite as much under him as under Danny. I don't really have an opinion on Danny as an HC but he was a fantastic assistant. I like our coaching staff now. I hope we can keep them all together for awhile.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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AZhawk87
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2 years 9 months ago #28356 by AZhawk87

This may rile some feathers, but I've had reasons to interact professionally with Danny several times since he left KU, and have found him to be stand offish, bordering on unfriendly. He may just be shy or reserved, but there wasn't much about him that inspired me to want to work with him. That would certainly play into his recruiting ability as a head coach. I still have nothing but wonderful memories of him as a player though, and believe he was a sure thing hall of famer but for his knee injuries.

I wonder if his fairly average career as a head coach may be due to that personality, while his success at KU with the bigs was him being able to focus on skill development and not so much on being the face/personality of the program.

Regardless, I'd love to see him return to Self's staff and coach up our bigs.

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asteroid
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2 years 9 months ago #28357 by asteroid

As of 21:30 UT, Dunkel has NOT made any change to his prediction of Kansas by 26. That would make the score 72 to 46 for his prediction of 118 total points.

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