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Big 12 projection, Round 10

  • asteroid
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2 years 9 months ago #28343 by asteroid 
Easy come, easy go?  All TCU had to do to solidify their spot in the upper division was to beat
bottom feeder Kansas State, and the Horned Frogs were even at home, but they didn't take advantage
of that golden opportunity.  Did Iowa State take advantage of TCU's slip-up to slide back into the
upper division?  No, they lost badly to Texas, scoring a mere 44 points in the process.  Did
Oklahoma take advantage?  No, they lost to in-state rival Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  So was the
win by the Cowboys enough for them to climb all the way into the upper division and leapfrog three
other teams?  Almost, but they fell 0.05 of a projected win short.  Why not settle things on the
court?  They'll do just that on Tuesday, with the Cowboys traveling to Fort Worth.  What TCU's loss
did do was to allow the Wildcats to claw their way over both West Virginia and Oklahoma out of the
conference cellar.  Meanwhile, the revised ratings didn't give the Kansas projected win total much
of a boost, but they did cost the Bears a bit, so the Jayhawks' lead is now a little over 2 wins.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  4  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3 
#  5  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3 
# 12  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1 
# 16  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5 
# 58  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0 
# 51  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6 
# 50  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2 
# 65  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8 
# 37  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0 
# 49  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2 

                      Rd.10
Pred                  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  Kansas          14.7     8  1  @UT  (Mo)   KU  by  0.9
#  5  Baylor          12.6     7  3  @KSU (We)   BU  by  8.1
# 12  Texas Tech      12.5     7  3  @OU  (We)   TTU by  3.5
# 16  Texas           10.1     6  4   KU  (Mo)              
# 58  TCU              7.2     4  4   OSU (Tu)   TCU by  2.1
# 51  Oklahoma State   7.1     4  6  @TCU (Tu)              
# 50  Iowa State       6.9     3  7  @WVU (Tu)              
# 65  Kansas State     6.7     4  6   BU  (We)              
# 37  Oklahoma         6.4     3  7   TTU (We)              
# 49  West Virginia    5.9     2  7   ISU (Tu)   WVU by  2.6

Rounding caused the total wins to be 90.1; if that bothers you, take 0.1 projected win from
the Cyclones.

Greenfield and Vegas shared honors for best prognostications in Round 10.  Colley followed his
win in Round 9 by pulling up the rear in Round 10.  Greenfield retains the season lead by a half point
over Vegas.  RealTime has taken over last place in the season standings.

Two road wins in Round 10, the projected one in Morgantown, plus Kansas State in Fort Worth, so we
remain four road wins ahead of the long-term average of one in three.  Three road wins are projected
for Round 11, all by the three front-runners.

Road wins (20 out of 48)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
4 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU              0 Kansas                                         +4 KU 
4 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU             0 Texas Tech                                     +2 BU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  1 Texas          KSU                             +2 TTU
2 Kansas State   UT  TCU                     2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +1 UT 
2 Texas          KSU TCU                     2 Oklahoma State KU  ISU                          0 TCU
2 Texas Tech     BU  WVU                     3 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU                      -1 KSU
1 Iowa State     OSU                         3 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU                      -1 OSU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         3 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU                     -2 ISU          
1 Oklahoma State BU                          3 TCU            BU  UT  KSU                     -2 OU 
0 West Virginia                              3 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU                     -3 WVU

Six teams involved in above/below-expectation games by more than the conference average, so the
inconsistency values jumped.  West Virginia has been the most consistent, but consistently
mediocre.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +1.48    West Virginia     7.34
Kansas State    +1.39    Kansas State      9.14
Baylor          +1.29    Texas             9.19
Texas Tech      +1.13    Texas Tech        9.99
Kansas          +0.77    Kansas           10.39
TCU             +0.53    TCU              10.75
Oklahoma State  +0.39    Baylor           10.76
Oklahoma        +0.29    Oklahoma State   10.86
Texas           +0.26    Oklahoma         11.13
West Virginia   -0.77    Iowa State       11.38

Good to see Kansas finally play signifiantly above expectation, and at just the right time.
Now out of the cellar in terms of trend, but the Jayhawks need another strong effort in Austin
to get out of the cellar in terms of mental toughness.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.37 +/- 0.31    Iowa State      +0.25 +/- 0.18
TCU             +0.33 +/- 0.42    Kansas State    +0.07 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.19 +/- 0.31    Texas Tech      +0.03 +/- 0.16
Texas            0.00 +/- 0.30    TCU             -0.01 +/- 0.25
West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma State  -0.10 +/- 0.37    Oklahoma        -0.06 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.36    West Virginia   -0.12 +/- 0.16
Iowa State      -0.21 +/- 0.36    Texas           -0.14 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma        -0.41 +/- 0.35    Baylor          -0.16 +/- 0.19
Baylor          -0.67 +/- 0.31    Kansas          -0.17 +/- 0.31

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          79.64   Texas           55.61   Kansas          147.95   Baylor          +14.57
Baylor          77.39   Texas Tech      60.83   Baylor          140.22   Texas Tech      +12.74
Texas Tech      73.57   Iowa State      61.78   Oklahoma State  135.59   Texas           +11.91
Oklahoma        69.30   Baylor          62.83   Oklahoma        134.41   Kansas          +11.32
Oklahoma State  68.64   TCU             63.20   Texas Tech      134.39   Iowa State       +5.39
TCU             68.05   Kansas State    63.64   West Virginia   133.95   Oklahoma         +4.87
Texas           67.52   Oklahoma        64.43   TCU             131.25   TCU              +4.85
West Virginia   67.41   West Virginia   66.55   Kansas State    130.77   Kansas State     +3.50
Iowa State      67.17   Oklahoma State  66.95   Iowa State      128.96   Oklahoma State   +1.68
Kansas State    67.14   Kansas          68.32   Texas           123.13   West Virginia    +0.86

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          80.13 ( 8) up   4
Oklahoma State  79.93 (13) down 4
Kansas State    79.69 (15) up   2
West Virginia   79.28 (18) up   3
Oklahoma        78.96 (22) even
Baylor          78.84 (24) up   6
Iowa State      78.50 (29) up   5
Texas Tech      77.36 (51) up   5
TCU             76.35 (68) down 4
Texas           75.91 (74) up   3
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2 years 9 months ago #28345 by HawkErrant
I like the three predicted road wins, but I’m hoping that only the KU prediction holds.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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2 years 9 months ago #28354 by Socalhawk
Thank you for all this great data.
I find the league SOS impressive, with UT the highest @#74 and they still have to play BU and KU twice and TT once. Having the highest SOS for the Big12 is not new. My question is has the Big12 had all teams SOS in the top 60, 50, before?

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2 years 9 months ago #28355 by CorpusJayhawk
Socal, only on this board can fans get the kind of data you see here. Here is the SOS since 1997. If you would like it back to 1950 I can do that as well. Of course the season is not over and the SOS will improve for the Big 12 as the season progresses. But this season does not yet approach the best season ever.

--That would be 2017 when the average SOS in the Big 12 was 13.9. That is amazing.
-- Since 1997 KU easily and by a wide margin has the best have SOS rank at 15.7.
-- Texas A&M had the worst average SOS rank at 62.6.
-- Of the current Big 12 teams, Baylor has the worst average SOS rank at 49.5.
-- Kansas has had the toughest SOS 13 of the 26 years and been 2nd 5 times.
-- Baylor has had the lowest SOS rank the most at 7 times.
-- At this moment this season is the 11th best SOS for the Big 12 but it will surely be in the top 5 by the end of the season.
-- The best of the worst was 2016 when Oklahoma St. had the worst SOS rank in the Big 12 but was 35th in the country.
-- In the last 11 years, KU has had the best SOS in the Big 12 8 times
-- Since Self has been at Kansas, KU has had the No. 1 SOS in the country an incredible 5 times.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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2 years 9 months ago #28358 by Socalhawk
Corpus,
Thank you for your timely and through reply. 2017 is truly amazing and will be difficult to replicate. I am guessing these are the numbers behind your “win normalization” chart a couple of weeks back.
These are stellar and I believe this should be pinned at the top of this page.
Thanks again
RCJGKU

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