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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Baylor game
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2 years 9 months ago #28327
by asteroid
The top two teams in the Big 12 facing off. It doesn't get any bigger than this, at
least during the regular season. But ESPN's College Game Day won't be there for it.
Perhaps just as well, considering how things went when they were there for Kentucky.
As I mentioned in the latest Big 12 projection, today's matchup between the conference's
top two teams has major implications for the projected standings. Only 1.04 projected
wins separate Kansas from Baylor, and Kansas has a 0.582 probability of beating Baylor.
If that happens as projected, Kansas would gain 0.418 of a projected win, climbing to
14.7 projected wins, while Baylor would lose 0.418 of a projected win, dropping to 12.8
projected wins, and the revised ratings would likely widen that a bit more, so Kansas
would command a two-win lead in the projected standings. However, if Kansas were to
lose, the Jayhawks would drop 0.582 of a projected win, falling to 13.7 projected wins,
while the Bears would gain 0.582 of a projected win, climbing to 13.8 projected wins,
and Baylor would reclaim first place by a small fraction of a win, plus whatever the
revised ratings would show.
Most of the prognosticators have picked Kansas in the game, thanks to the home court
advantage, as most of them also have Baylor ranked higher than Kansas. Dunkel is the
most pessimistic, picking Baylor to win by 3.5 points. RealTime might also be a
pessimist; his Gamer predicted has Baylor by a point, but when you look at the
schedule for Kansas, he has the scores reversed, with Kansas winning by a point.
How many times do I need to say that RealTime is not ready for Prime Time? The most
optimistic is the common opponent comparison, which has Kansas by 6.7 points, primarily
because Baylor's two conference home losses produce unfavorable comparisons for them.
The average is 2.24 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 2.38 points.
That's basically a one-possession game, so it could easily go either way, especially
considering the 9.6 point inconsistencies for these two teams.
Kansas averages games with 148 total points, while Baylor averages games with 140
total points, so one might expect this game to feature around 144 total points.
The DPPI has projected 152 total points, while RealTime has it at 139 total points,
so not a lot of spread in that expectation either.
Injuries might play a role, as a couple of key Bears have missed some action
recently. Ditto for Kansas, though Agbaji has tested negative and has been cleared
to play. In his absence, others needed to step up, which may put the Jayhawks in
a better position for the bench to contribute going forward.
Although Baylor is projected to lose today, it's their only projected loss the rest
of the conference season. They're currently favored by a mere 0.1 point in Lubbock,
and by just 2.0 points in Austin. Their third-most difficult remaining game in the
home tilt with Kansas, in which they are favored by 3.5 points.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats BU KU Defensive Stats BU KU
Points/Game 78.8 80.0 Opp Points/Game 61.4 68.2
Avg Score Margin +17.4 +11.9 Opp Effective FG % 48.0 48.2
Assists/Game 17.2 16.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.2 10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.5 36.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.7 24.3
Effective FG % 55.2 55.4 Blocks/Game 3.3 4.1
Off Rebound % 36.3 34.2 Steals/Game 9.5 6.8
FTA/FGA 0.260 0.305 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.7 15.5
Turnover % 16.1 15.6
My Stats Comparison KU BU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.21 +1.76
inconsistency 9.54 9.79
trend -0.49 ± 0.33 -0.46 ± 0.32
mental toughness -0.35 ± 0.29 -0.03 ± 0.18
average total pts 148.24 140.14
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, six in conference plus Michigan State, two of which
Kansas has played twice (ISU and TTU), and two of which Baylor has played twice (OU
and WVU), giving us eleven scores to compare:
KU +13 MSU neutral (+13 neutral court)
BU +17 MSU neutral (+17 neutral court)
KU 0 BU at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court) KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
BU +5 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court) BU +5 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU +8 BU at home ( +4 neutral court) KU -8 BU at home (-12 neutral court)
KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU +10 OU at home ( +6 neutral court) BU +14 OU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU +5 BU at home ( +1 neutral court) KU -7 BU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court) KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
BU -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral court) BU -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU +10 BU at home ( +6 neutral court) KU +7 BU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
BU -7 OSU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU +30 BU at home (+26 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court) KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
BU +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral court) BU +4 WVU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +13 BU at home ( +9 neutral court) KU +26 BU at home (+22 neutral court)
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU +25 KSU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU -10 BU at home (-14 neutral court)
The average is 6.73 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 13.03 points.
The Oklahoma State comparison is particularly favorable for Kansas, given that
Baylor lost to the Cowboys at home, while Kansas beat them in Stillwater. The
West Virginia comparison is also favorable for Kansas, given the large margin
of victory in Lawrence. The Iowa State and Oklahoma comparisons are pretty
much a wash, as is the Michigan State comparison. Baylor comes out on top in
the Kansas State comparison.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes James Akinjo (guard)
most points L. J. Cryer (guard)
most rebounds Jonathan Tchatchoua (forward)
most assists James Akinjo (guard)
most steals James Akinjo (guard)
most blocks Flo Thamba (forward)
most turnovers James Akinjo (guard)
most fouls Matthew Mayer (guard)
Guard Adam Flagler did not play in the previous game because of a knee injury;
whether he will be available for today's game wasn't stated. He is second on
the team in minutes played and third in points, so has been a major contributor.
L. J. Cryer did not play in the previous two games because of a foot injury;
whether he will be available for today's game wasn't stated. As their leading
scorer, the outcome of this game depends significantly on his status. Reserve
guard Langston Love is out for the rest of season with a torn ACL.
18-3 19-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Baylor
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + 2.12 73 71 58 # 5 # 12 # 4 # 31
Sagarin Predictor + 1.75 73 71 57.2 # 5 # 12 # 3 # 31
Sagarin Golden Mean + 2.56 73 70 # 4 # 12 # 3 # 31
Sagarin Recent Games + 4.04 74 70 # 11 # 12 # 14 # 31
Sagarin Eigenvector + 2.59 73 70 60
Massey + 1.00 74 73 51 # 8 # 8 # 4 # 49
Pomeroy + 0.31 74 73 # 10 # 5 # 3 # 34
Greenfield + 2.50 74 72 # 9 # 8 # 4 # 6
Dunkel - 3.50 70 73 # 10 # 2
Vegas (via Dunkel) + 2.50 74 72
Dolphin Predictive + 1.73 76 74 55.9 # 11 # 5 # 5 # 7
Real Time - 1.00 69 70 48.7 # 2 # 3 # 1 # 75
Seven Overtimes + 6.00 75 69 71 # 4 # 1 # 17 # 40
DPPI + 1.80 77 75 56.0 # 7 # 2 # 4 # 43
ESPN BPI + 1.90 57.2 # 12 # 11 # 7 # 28
Whitlock + 2.00 # 6 # 2 # 4 # 35
Colley Matrix + 5.25 # 2 # 2 # 6 # 36
NCAA NET # 9 # 5
LRMC # 15* # # 8* #
common opponents + 6.73
Massey composite # 7 # 3
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average + 2.24 73.5 71.6 57.2
scatter 2.38 2.1 1.8 6.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection remains at 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 20 Michigan State 87 74 +4.04 +8.96
HOME #202 Tarleton State 88 62 +23.54 +2.46
HOME #213 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +24.34 +4.66
NEUT # 91 North Texas 71 59 +12.19 -0.19
NEUT # 55 Dayton 73 74 +9.22 -10.22
NEUT # 97 Iona College 96 83 +12.90 +0.10
AWAY # 68 St. John's 95 75 +7.96 +12.04
HOME #173 UTEP 78 52 +22.12 +3.88
HOME #119 Missouri 102 65 +18.91 +18.09
HOME #132 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +19.55 -11.55
HOME #125 Nevada 88 61 +19.16 +7.84
HOME #101 George Mason 76 67 +16.05 -7.05
AWAY # 58 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.72 +4.28
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.79 -7.21
HOME # 45 Iowa State 62 61 +10.99 -9.99
HOME # 47 West Virginia 85 59 +11.41 +14.59
AWAY # 35 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.68 -1.68
AWAY # 72 Kansas State 78 75 +8.19 -5.19
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.49 -1.49
HOME # 7 Kentucky 62 80 +3.23 -21.23
AWAY # 45 Iowa State 70 61 +5.71 +3.29
HOME # 3 Baylor +1.75 0.572
AWAY # 17 Texas +1.13 0.549
HOME # 35 Oklahoma +9.96 0.831
HOME # 58 Oklahoma State +12.00 0.878
AWAY # 47 West Virginia +6.13 0.762
HOME # 72 Kansas State +13.47 0.930
AWAY # 3 Baylor -3.53 0.357
AWAY # 51 TCU +6.37 0.737
HOME # 51 TCU +11.65 0.877
HOME # 17 Texas +6.41 0.756
Here is Baylor's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #350 Incarnate Word 87 60 +37.62 -10.62
HOME #220 Nicholls State 89 60 +25.63 +3.37
HOME #343 Central Arkansas 92 47 +35.96 +9.04
HOME # 98 Stanford 86 48 +16.43 +21.57
NEUT #110 Arizona State 75 63 +15.42 -3.42
NEUT # 62 VCU(Va. Commonwealth) 69 61 +10.96 -2.96
NEUT # 20 Michigan State 75 58 +4.93 +12.07
HOME #355 Ark.-Pine Bluff 99 54 +39.89 +5.11
HOME # 8 Villanova 57 36 +4.27 +16.73
AWAY # 31 Oregon 78 70 +4.78 +3.22
HOME #288 Alcorn State 94 57 +30.11 +6.89
HOME #329 Northwestern State 104 68 +33.86 +2.14
AWAY # 45 Iowa State 77 72 +6.60 -1.60
HOME # 35 Oklahoma 84 74 +10.85 -0.85
AWAY # 51 TCU 76 64 +7.26 +4.74
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 62 65 +5.38 -8.38
HOME # 58 Oklahoma State 54 61 +12.89 -19.89
AWAY # 47 West Virginia 77 68 +7.02 +1.98
AWAY # 35 Oklahoma 65 51 +5.57 +8.43
HOME # 72 Kansas State 74 49 +14.36 +10.64
AWAY # 19 Alabama 78 87 +2.28 -11.28
HOME # 47 West Virginia 81 77 +12.30 -8.30
AWAY # 5 Kansas -1.75 0.428
AWAY # 72 Kansas State +9.08 0.837
HOME # 17 Texas +7.30 0.782
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech +0.10 0.504
HOME # 51 TCU +12.54 0.891
AWAY # 58 Oklahoma State +7.61 0.768
HOME # 5 Kansas +3.53 0.643
AWAY # 17 Texas +2.02 0.585
HOME # 45 Iowa State +11.88 0.873
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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