Big 12 projection, Round 9

TCU's road win over Oklahoma, coupled with Iowa State's home loss to Kansas, was enough to
propel the Horned Frogs into fifth place and the upper division.  Oklahoma's loss to a lower-
ranked team was arguably worse than Iowa State's loss to a higher-ranked team, so the
Cyclones and Sooners also swapped places in the projected standings.  No other changes.
Saturday's matchup between the conference's top two teams has major implications for the
projected standings.  Only 1.04 projected wins separate Kansas from Baylor, and Kansas has
a 0.582 probability of beating Baylor.  If that happens as projected, Kansas would gain
0.418 of a projected win, climbing to 14.7 projected wins, while Baylor would lose 0.418 of
a projected win, dropping to 12.8 projected wins, and the revised ratings would likely
widen that a bit more, so Kansas would command a two-win lead in the projected standings.
However, if Kansas were to lose, the Jayhawks would drop 0.582 of a projected win, falling
to 13.7 projected wins, while the Bears would gain 0.582 of a projected win, climbing to
13.8 projected wins, and Baylor would reclaim first place by a small fraction of a win,
plus whatever the revised ratings would show.  Bedlam Part 1 could also shake things up in
the lower division.  TCU is in a great position to solidify their spot in the upper division
with a projected home win over Kansas State.

                      Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Kansas          13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3     7  1   BU  (Sa)   KU  by  2.0
#  4  Baylor          14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3     7  2  @KU  (Sa)              
# 12  Texas Tech      10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1     6  3  @WVU (Sa)   TTU by  4.3
# 17  Texas           10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5     5  4   ISU (Sa)   UT  by  7.1
# 50  TCU              5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0     4  3   KSU (Sa)   TCU by  4.3
# 43  Iowa State       6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2     3  6  @UT  (Sa)              
# 36  Oklahoma         9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0     3  6  @OSU (Sa)              
# 55  Oklahoma State   7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6     3  6   OU  (Sa)   OSU by  0.7
# 45  West Virginia    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2     2  6   TTU (Sa)              
# 69  Kansas State     4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8     3  6  @TCU (Sa)              

Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 9, with honorable mention to my trend analysis,
which was just a tenth of a point behind Colley.  RealTime pulled the rear by a wide margin.  Greenfield
now has the season lead by a half point over Vegas, with Dolphin just 0.3 points behind Vegas.  Dunkel
pulls up the rear on the season.

Two road wins in Round 9, the projected one in Ames, plus TCU in Norman, so we are four road wins
ahead of the long-term average of one in three.  Only one road win is projected for Round 10,
namely Texas Tech in Morgantown.

Road wins (18 out of 43)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
4 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU              0 Kansas                                         +4 KU 
4 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU             0 Texas Tech                                     +2 BU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  1 Texas          KSU                             +1 TCU
2 Texas          KSU TCU                     2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +1 TTU
1 Iowa State     OSU                         2 Oklahoma State KU  ISU                         +1 UT 
1 Kansas State   UT                          2 TCU            BU  UT                          -1 OSU
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         2 West Virginia  BU  OU                          -2 ISU
1 Oklahoma State BU                          3 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU                      -2 KSU          
1 Texas Tech     BU                          3 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU                      -2 OU 
0 West Virginia                              3 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU                     -2 WVU

West Virginia is the only team in the conference that is over-rated.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +1.94    West Virginia     7.54
Iowa State      +1.62    Kansas State      8.67
Texas Tech      +1.05    Texas             8.96
Kansas State    +0.96    Kansas            9.62
TCU             +0.88    Baylor            9.80
Oklahoma        +0.34    Texas Tech       10.35
Texas           +0.29    TCU              10.62
Oklahoma State  +0.17    Oklahoma State   10.93
Kansas          +0.08    Iowa State       11.02
West Virginia   -0.77    Oklahoma         11.18

Still don't like seeing Kansas at the bottom of the conference in both trend and mental toughness.
But Baylor is neck-and-neck with Kansas in trend.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.66 +/- 0.43    Iowa State      +0.32 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      +0.41 +/- 0.34    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.32    TCU             +0.03 +/- 0.25
Iowa State      -0.07 +/- 0.38    Texas Tech      +0.03 +/- 0.17
West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.28    Baylor          -0.03 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.16 +/- 0.31    Oklahoma        -0.04 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State  -0.23 +/- 0.40    Oklahoma State  -0.08 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma        -0.35 +/- 0.38    West Virginia   -0.12 +/- 0.16
Baylor          -0.46 +/- 0.32    Texas           -0.16 +/- 0.15
Kansas          -0.48 +/- 0.34    Kansas          -0.32 +/- 0.29

We made it halfway through the conference season with everybody still in positive scoring
margin territory.  Usually the weaker teams will run up gawdy scoring margins against
cupcake non-conference opponents, and then the numbers sag after conference play begins.
Someone is bound to go negative before the post-season.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          79.57   Texas           56.18   Kansas          148.24   Baylor          +16.14
Baylor          78.14   Texas Tech      61.27   Baylor          140.14   Texas Tech      +12.82
Texas Tech      74.09   Iowa State      61.82   Oklahoma State  136.38   Texas           +11.64
Oklahoma        69.86   Baylor          62.00   Texas Tech      135.36   Kansas          +10.90
Oklahoma State  68.95   TCU             62.47   West Virginia   134.95   Iowa State       +6.45
TCU             68.42   Kansas State    63.76   Oklahoma        134.41   TCU              +5.95
Iowa State      68.27   Oklahoma        64.55   TCU             130.89   Oklahoma         +5.32
West Virginia   68.19   West Virginia   66.76   Kansas State    130.43   Kansas State     +2.90
Texas           67.82   Oklahoma State  67.43   Iowa State      130.09   Oklahoma State   +1.52
Kansas State    66.67   Kansas          68.67   Texas           124.00   West Virginia    +1.43

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State  79.98 ( 9) up   3
Kansas          79.72 (12) up   2
Kansas State    79.28 (17) up   1
West Virginia   78.83 (21) up   6
Oklahoma        78.78 (22) even
Baylor          78.21 (30) down 5
Iowa State      77.78 (34) up  13
Texas Tech      76.69 (56) up  10
TCU             76.29 (64) up   8
Texas           75.52 (77) up  18