predictions for Iowa State game

Four consecutive below-expectation performances by the Jayhawks, and six out of the
last seven.  They are due for an above-expectation performance.  Will it happen
today despite Hilton Magic?

Iowa State has the conference's best mental toughness rating, and it is statistically
significant.  Meanwhile, Kansas has the conference's worst trend rating, and it is
also statistically significant.  Still, they are not enough to overcome the 5.7 point
margin that Sagarin Predictor expects, though they do reduce it to just 1.3 points,
so it could be yet another one of those nail-biters we've come to expect.

If you're familiar with the phrase "The Ramans do things in threes", then you can
appreciate that a week ago, we had three remarkable games, one in Manhattan, one
in Arrowhead, and one in Lawrence, that worked in Kansas fans' favor.  Are we going
to see the flip side of that?  It was a rotten Saturday in Lawrence, a rotten Sunday
in Arrowhead, and now a Tuesday trip to Ames that the Ramans would expect to also be
rotten.

Indeed, RealTime is picking the Cyclones by 9, Seven Overtimes is picking the
Cyclones by 4, and Dunkel is picking the Cyclones by a half point.  The rest,
however, are picking Kansas, with Sagarin Predictor the most optimistic of the
bunch as a bit under 6 points.  The average is just 2.2 points, making it a
one-possession game.  Play too many of those, and you're bound to get burned,
just like the Chiefs on Sunday.  Live by the sudden death, die by the sudden
death.

Against Kentucky, it was clearly a rebounding issue.  The shots from beyond the
arc were a wash.  Kansas made a higher percentage of charities, though attempted
far fewer, but that was only a four-point differential.  Two-point shot attempts
were nearly equal, but Kentucky made a higher number, partially fueled by
offensive rebounds.  Self said it earlier:  how the season goes for Kansas largely
depends on how DMac plays.  He's been Jekyll and Hyde so far this season, and we
just don't know who is going to show up in Ames today.  Fortunately, Iowa State's
offense runs through a smaller guard, so the match-up is more favorable for Kansas.

Not sure why Sagarin is predicting total points of just under 136, given that both
teams are averaging over 146 total points.  I'll take the over.  We'll see how the
Jayhawks react to Saturday's wake-up call.

Still waiting on the DPPI prediction.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      ISU     KU      Defensive Stats      ISU     KU
Points/Game         69.6    80.6     Opp Points/Game     60.5    68.6
Avg Score Margin    +9.1   +12.0     Opp Effective FG %  46.2    48.3
Assists/Game        14.6    16.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.4    10.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.5    36.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.7    24.1
Effective FG %      51.1    55.1     Blocks/Game          3.1     4.2
Off Rebound %       28.4    34.4     Steals/Game          8.9     6.6
FTA/FGA            0.299   0.307     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.5    15.7
Turnover %          17.8    15.1

My Stats Comparison        KU             ISU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.12           +1.94    
inconsistency          9.87           11.23    
trend                 -0.61 ± 0.37    -0.01 ± 0.42
mental toughness      -0.37 ± 0.30    +0.35 ± 0.17
average total pts      149.10         146.45    

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, three in conference, one of which both Kansas
and Iowa State have played twice (for which I'll use only the home-home and
road-road permutations), plus Misery, and the head-to-read in Lawrence, giving
us six scores to compare:

KU  +37 Mizz at home (+33 neutral court)                                       
ISU +17 Mizz at home (+13 neutral court)
KU  +16 ISU  at home (+20 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU  at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
ISU  +4 TTU  at home (  0 neutral court)     ISU -12 TTU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU   -5 ISU  on road ( -1 neutral court)     KU    0 ISU on road ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +3 OU   on road ( +7 neutral court)
ISU -13 OU   on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU  +12 ISU  on road (+16 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU  on road (+15 neutral court)
ISU  +3 OSU  on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +4 ISU  on road ( +8 neutral court)

KU   +1 ISU  at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU   -7 ISU  on road ( -3 neutral court)

The average is 3.33 points in favor Kansas, with a scatter of 9.2 points.
Remove the non-conference game, and the average drops to just two-thirds
of a point in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Izaiah Brockington (guard)
most points        Izaiah Brockington (guard)
most rebounds      Izaiah Brockington (guard)
most assists       Tyrese Hunter (guard)
most steals        Tyrese Hunter (guard)
most blocks        George Conditt IV (forward)
most turnovers     Tyrese Hunter (guard)
most fouls         George Conditt IV (forward)

                                                          17-3           16-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        + 5.30   71   65       69       #  6   # 14    # 42   # 48
Sagarin Predictor      + 5.65   71   65       70.3     #  6   # 14    # 44   # 48 
Sagarin Golden Mean    + 5.29   71   65                #  4   # 14    # 37   # 48 
Sagarin Recent Games   + 0.68   68   68                # 16   # 14    # 32   # 48 
Sagarin Eigenvector    + 4.12   70   66       65    
Massey                 + 3.00   72   69       61       # 10   # 12    # 27   # 63
Pomeroy                + 1.70   68   67                # 11   # 11    # 24   # 50
Greenfield             + 4.50   71   67                # 10   #  9    # 49   # 35
Dunkel                 - 0.50   65   65                # 11           # 30
Vegas (via Dunkel)     + 4.50   71   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 2.92   71   68       60.2     # 13   #  8    # 25   # 23
Real Time              - 9.00   71   80       30.1     #  3   #  3    # 13   #102 
Seven Overtimes        - 4.00   68   72       36       #  4   #  1    # 37   # 78
DPPI                                                   #  6   #  7    #      #    
ESPN BPI               + 1.50                 56.0     # 13   # 17    # 38   # 30
Whitlock               + 3.53                          #  6   #  4    # 25   # 45
Colley Matrix          + 5.16                          #  2   #  2    # 34   # 73
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 25 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #148*  #   
common opponents       + 3.33         
Massey composite                                       #  9           # 26
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 2.22   69.9 68.0     56.0
scatter                  3.81    2.0  4.1     15.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back down to
25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 19 Michigan State              87  74    +3.81    +9.19
HOME   #202 Tarleton State              88  62   +23.37    +2.63
HOME   #210 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +23.78    +5.22
NEUT   # 91 North Texas                 71  59   +12.12    -0.12
NEUT   # 65 Dayton                      73  74   +10.28   -11.28
NEUT   # 98 Iona College                96  83   +12.55    +0.45
AWAY   # 66 St. John's                  95  75    +7.83   +12.17
HOME   #175 UTEP                        78  52   +22.08    +3.92
HOME   #140 Missouri                   102  65   +19.84   +17.16
HOME   #143 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +20.15   -12.15
HOME   #115 Nevada                      88  61   +17.83    +9.17
HOME   #101 George Mason                76  67   +15.98    -6.98
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State              74  63    +6.33    +4.67
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.75    -7.25
HOME   # 44 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.03   -10.03
HOME   # 45 West Virginia               85  59   +11.22   +14.78
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.40    -1.40
AWAY   # 73 Kansas State                78  75    +8.17    -5.17
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.63    -1.63
HOME   #  8 Kentucky                    62  80    +3.05   -21.05
AWAY   # 44 Iowa State                            +5.65             0.703
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +1.70             0.569
AWAY   # 16 Texas                                 +0.40             0.517
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                              +9.78             0.826
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                       +11.71             0.864
AWAY   # 45 West Virginia                         +5.84             0.748
HOME   # 73 Kansas State                         +13.55             0.926
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -3.68             0.354
AWAY   # 48 TCU                                   +6.10             0.726
HOME   # 48 TCU                                  +11.48             0.871
HOME   # 16 Texas                                 +5.78             0.730

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #267 Kennesaw State              84  73   +19.45    -8.45
HOME   #134 Oregon State                60  50   +11.00    -1.00
HOME   #326 Alabama State               68  60   +23.85   -15.85
HOME   #317 Grambling State             82  47   +23.12   +11.88
NEUT   # 22 Xavier-Ohio                 82  70    -3.53   +15.53
NEUT   # 54 Memphis                     78  59    +0.68   +18.32
HOME   #355 Ark.-Pine Bluff             83  64   +30.46   -11.46
AWAY   # 64 Creighton                   64  58    -0.90    +6.90
HOME   # 20 Iowa                        73  53    -1.66   +21.66
HOME   #298 Jackson State               47  37   +21.59   -11.59
HOME   #299 SE Louisiana                77  54   +21.83    +1.17
HOME   #353 Chicago State               79  48   +28.74    +2.26
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      72  77    -6.64    +1.64
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  51  47    -3.71    +7.71
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                    66  79    -3.94    -9.06
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                      61  62   -11.03   +10.03
HOME   # 16 Texas                       79  70    -2.56   +11.56
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  60  72    -9.09    -2.91
HOME   # 48 TCU                         44  59    +3.14   -18.14
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State              84  81    -2.01    +5.01
HOME   #140 Missouri                    67  50   +11.50    +5.50
HOME   #  6 Kansas                                -5.65             0.297
AWAY   # 16 Texas                                 -7.94             0.217
AWAY   # 45 West Virginia                         -2.50             0.396
HOME   # 73 Kansas State                          +5.21             0.697
AWAY   # 48 TCU                                   -2.24             0.418
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                              +1.44             0.552
HOME   # 45 West Virginia                         +2.88             0.619
AWAY   # 73 Kansas State                          -0.17             0.493
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +3.37             0.617
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                               -12.02             0.127

DPPI now included.  As the DPPI predicted margin matched the average, the average
did not change.  However, since the earlier posting, we've learned that Ochai is out
because of COVID protocol.  How many points is he worth over the next man up?

                                                          17-3           16-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        + 5.30   71   65       69       #  6   # 14    # 42   # 48
Sagarin Predictor      + 5.65   71   65       70.3     #  6   # 14    # 44   # 48 
Sagarin Golden Mean    + 5.29   71   65                #  4   # 14    # 37   # 48 
Sagarin Recent Games   + 0.68   68   68                # 16   # 14    # 32   # 48 
Sagarin Eigenvector    + 4.12   70   66       65    
Massey                 + 3.00   72   69       61       # 10   # 12    # 27   # 63
Pomeroy                + 1.70   68   67                # 11   # 11    # 24   # 50
Greenfield             + 4.50   71   67                # 10   #  9    # 49   # 35
Dunkel                 - 0.50   65   65                # 11           # 30
Vegas (via Dunkel)     + 4.50   71   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 2.92   71   68       60.2     # 13   #  8    # 25   # 23
Real Time              - 9.00   71   80       30.1     #  3   #  3    # 13   #102 
Seven Overtimes        - 4.00   68   72       36       #  4   #  1    # 37   # 78
DPPI                   + 2.20   73   70.5     54.4     #  8   #  3    # 29   # 51 
ESPN BPI               + 1.50                 56.0     # 13   # 17    # 38   # 30
Whitlock               + 3.53                          #  6   #  4    # 25   # 45
Colley Matrix          + 5.16                          #  2   #  2    # 34   # 73
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 25 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #148*  #   
common opponents       + 3.33         
Massey composite                                       #  9           # 26
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 2.22   70.1 68.2     55.8
scatter                  3.70    2.1  4.0     14.0