Big 12 projection, Round 8.5

TCU getting the upset win over Pomeroy's #1 defensive team, coupled with Oklahoma State's
come from ahead loss to Florida, was enough to move the Horned Frogs into seventh place
at the expense of the Cowboys.  The Jayhawks' embarrassment at the hands of Kentucky cost
them 0.3 projected wins in the revised ratings, but still sit atop the conference's
projected standings.

                      Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd.8+
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  7  Kansas          13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   13.8     6  1  @ISU (Tu)   KU  by  5.6
#  2  Baylor          14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.4     6  2   WVU (Mo)   BU  by 13.1
# 13  Texas Tech      10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   11.6     5  3   UT  (Tu)   TTU by  3.7
# 17  Texas           10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0   10.1     5  3  @TTU (Tu)              
# 34  Oklahoma         9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.8     3  5   TCU (Mo)   OU  by  5.2
# 43  Iowa State       6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.5     3  5   KU  (Tu)              
# 57  TCU              5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    7.2     3  3  @OU  (Mo)              
# 53  Oklahoma State   7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    7.1     3  5  @KSU (We)              
# 47  West Virginia    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2     2  5  @BU  (Mo)              
# 75  Kansas State     4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.3     2  6   OSU (We)   KSU by  0.8

Because Saturday's games were all non-conference, I did not do the full set of
prognostications, so those season standings are unchanged.  Also, the road win
and home loss statistics for conference games are also unchanged.  They won't
be repeated here.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +2.05    West Virginia     7.47
Baylor          +1.75    Kansas State      8.85
Kansas State    +1.03    Texas             8.93
Texas Tech      +0.99    Baylor            9.80
TCU             +0.76    Kansas            9.86
Oklahoma        +0.72    TCU              10.38
Oklahoma State  +0.30    Texas Tech       10.48
Kansas          +0.16    Oklahoma         10.98
Texas           +0.15    Iowa State       11.34
West Virginia   -0.98    Oklahoma State   11.36

Trend and mental toughness ratings are now showing some statistical significance for Kansas,
and the news isn't good.  Four consecutive below-expectation performances, including the worst
of the season.  Baylor's trend isn't much better.  The top of the Big 12 let the conference
down against the SEC.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.55 +/- 0.47    Iowa State      +0.36 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      +0.36 +/- 0.38    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.35    Texas Tech      +0.01 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.01 +/- 0.42    Baylor          -0.02 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.09 +/- 0.33    Oklahoma        -0.04 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -0.22 +/- 0.40    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State  -0.24 +/- 0.45    TCU             -0.05 +/- 0.25
West Virginia   -0.25 +/- 0.29    Texas           -0.14 +/- 0.16
Baylor          -0.40 +/- 0.35    West Virginia   -0.21 +/- 0.17
Kansas          -0.61 +/- 0.37    Kansas          -0.37 +/- 0.30

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          79.95   Texas           55.29   Kansas          149.10   Baylor          +16.90
Baylor          78.10   Texas Tech      61.05   Baylor          139.29   Texas Tech      +13.00
Texas Tech      74.05   Baylor          61.19   Oklahoma State  136.25   Texas           +12.62
Oklahoma        70.29   Iowa State      61.29   Texas Tech      135.10   Kansas          +10.80
Oklahoma State  68.90   TCU             62.56   Oklahoma        134.38   Iowa State       +7.48
Iowa State      68.76   Kansas State    63.45   West Virginia   133.80   Oklahoma         +6.19
TCU             68.11   Oklahoma        64.10   TCU             130.67   TCU              +5.56
Texas           67.90   West Virginia   66.15   Iowa State      130.05   Kansas State     +3.10
West Virginia   67.65   Oklahoma State  67.35   Kansas State    130.00   Oklahoma State   +1.55
Kansas State    66.55   Kansas          69.15   Texas           123.19   West Virginia    +1.50

It took roughly half the conference season to get everyone into the Top 100 in Schedule
Strength.  Will they all make it into the Top 50?

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State  79.83 (12) down 2
Kansas          79.30 (14) up  2
Kansas State    79.10 (18) down 3
Oklahoma        78.68 (22) up  1
Baylor          78.27 (25) up  6
West Virginia   78.04 (27) up  2
Iowa State      76.90 (47) down 17
Texas Tech      75.90 (66) up  3
TCU             75.66 (72) up 12
Texas           74.65 (95) up  9