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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Kentucky game
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2 years 9 months ago #28256
by asteroid
Once again, I'm waiting on Sagarin. I'll post what I have now and plan on an
update a couple hours before the game.
According to Pomeroy, we're featuring the #3 and #4 offensive teams in today's
game. What does that mean? I predict a final score of Kansas 150, Kentucky 95.
Oh wait, that was 1989. Time warp.
Dunkel is the pessimist, predicting Kansas to lose by 1. Everybody else is
picking the Jayhawks, with the lone common opponent (Misery) suggesting a 14 point
win for Kansas. Colley is next with an 11.3 point margin for Kansas. RealTime,
even with his enormous home court advantage, only has Kansas by 10 points. The
most reliable prognosticators have it around 5 points.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UK KU Defensive Stats UK KU
Points/Game 82.3 81.5 Opp Points/Game 64.3 67.9
Avg Score Margin +18.0 +13.6 Opp Effective FG % 46.0 47.9
Assists/Game 16.9 16.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.7 10.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 41.7 37.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 26.2 24.3
Effective FG % 54.7 55.6 Blocks/Game 4.9 4.3
Off Rebound % 37.4 35.4 Steals/Game 7.0 6.7
FTA/FGA 0.249 0.314 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.3 15.8
Turnover % 14.4 15.1
My Stats Comparison KU UK
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.67 +2.91
inconsistency 8.87 10.75
trend -0.33 ± 0.37 +0.27 ± 0.42
mental toughness -0.17 ± 0.29 -0.05 ± 0.22
average total pts 149.47 146.45
Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Misery:
KU +37 Mizz at home (+33 neutral court)
UK +27 Mizz at home (+23 neutral court)
KU +14 UK at home (+10 neutral court)
That's a pretty favorable comparison for Kansas. However, the Jayhawks played
17 points above expectation. Of course, Kentucky also played above expectation,
but by just 9 points. Remove that 8 point difference, and the comparison still
favors Kansas by 6 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Kellan Grady (guard)
most points Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most rebounds Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most assists Sahvir Wheeler (guard)
most steals Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most blocks Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most turnovers Sahvir Wheeler (guard)
most fouls Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
Guard TyTy Washington didn't play against Mississippi State due to an ankle injury,
and we don't know if he'll be available to play against the Jayhawks. That could be
a huge factor, as TyTy is second on the team in minutes played and in points scored.
Reserve forward Jacob Toppin left the previous game with an ankle injury, but his
status is also unavailable; he's seventh on the team in minutes played. Reserve
forward Daimion Collins has an unspecified problem, and an unspecified return date;
he's eighth on the team in minutes played. Reserve gaurd C. J. Fredrick is out with
a hamstring injury. So the key to the game is likely to be how well Kansas can
contain Tshiebwe. Put Marcus Garrett on him. Oh wait...
17-2 16-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kentucky
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall # 4 # 18 # 15 # 98
Sagarin Predictor + 4.41 67.2 # 4 # 18 # 15 # 98
Sagarin Golden Mean # 3 # 18 # 14 # 98
Sagarin Recent Games # 5 # 18 # 12 # 98
Sagarin Eigenvector
Massey + 3.00 77 74 59 # 6 # 11 # 11 # 72
Pomeroy + 2.33 77 75 # 9 # 12 # 7 # 91
Greenfield + 5.00 78.5 73.5 # 8 # 13 # 6 # 16
Dunkel - 1.00 74 75 # 10 # 11
Vegas (via Dunkel) + 5.00 78.5 73.5
Dolphin Predictive + 3.11 79 76 60.3 # 10 # 8 # 6 # 12
Real Time +10.00 81 71 72.8 # 2 # 5 # 19 # 84
Seven Overtimes + 6.00 77 71 67 # 3 # 3 # 19 # 55
DPPI + 4.40 78 73 64.9 # 6 # 7 # 9 # 67
ESPN BPI + 2.60 59.5 # 9 # 20 # 7 # 46
Whitlock + 4.46 # 5 # 8 # 8 # 62
Colley Matrix +11.26 # 2 # 5 # 35 #103
NCAA NET # 7 # 9
LRMC # 15* # # 52* #
common opponents +14.00
Massey composite # 5 # 12
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average + 5.33 77.8 73.6 64.4
scatter 3.94 1.9 1.7 5.1
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to where
it started at 26-5:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 19 Michigan State 87 74 +4.52 +8.48
HOME #208 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.43 +1.57
HOME #209 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +24.44 +4.56
NEUT # 84 North Texas 71 59 +12.45 -0.45
NEUT # 61 Dayton 73 74 +10.43 -11.43
NEUT # 95 Iona College 96 83 +13.18 -0.18
AWAY # 70 St. John's 95 75 +8.32 +11.68
HOME #184 UTEP 78 52 +22.93 +3.07
HOME #130 Missouri 102 65 +19.88 +17.12
HOME #147 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +21.03 -13.03
HOME #109 Nevada 88 61 +17.73 +9.27
HOME #105 George Mason 76 67 +17.07 -8.07
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.79 +4.21
AWAY # 15 Texas Tech 67 75 +0.44 -8.44
HOME # 43 Iowa State 62 61 +11.55 -10.55
HOME # 48 West Virginia 85 59 +11.84 +14.16
AWAY # 30 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.29 -1.29
AWAY # 68 Kansas State 78 75 +8.23 -5.23
HOME # 15 Texas Tech 94 91 +5.80 -2.80
HOME # 8 Kentucky +4.41 0.672
AWAY # 43 Iowa State +6.19 0.727
HOME # 2 Baylor +1.49 0.564
AWAY # 16 Texas +0.98 0.543
HOME # 30 Oklahoma +9.65 0.833
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +12.15 0.882
AWAY # 48 West Virginia +6.48 0.786
HOME # 68 Kansas State +13.59 0.938
AWAY # 2 Baylor -3.87 0.338
AWAY # 60 TCU +7.72 0.791
HOME # 60 TCU +13.08 0.915
HOME # 16 Texas +6.34 0.759
Here is Kentucky's season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 9 Duke 71 79 +0.29 -8.29
HOME #318 Robert Morris 100 60 +30.18 +9.82
HOME #266 Mount St. Mary's 80 55 +26.87 -1.87
HOME #110 Ohio 77 59 +16.05 +1.95
HOME #287 Albany-NY 86 61 +27.90 -2.90
HOME #292 North Florida(UNF) 86 52 +28.08 +5.92
HOME #334 Central Michigan 85 57 +32.19 -4.19
HOME #219 Southern U. 76 64 +23.14 -11.14
AWAY # 65 Notre Dame 62 66 +6.43 -10.43
NEUT # 32 North Carolina 98 69 +5.65 +23.35
HOME #128 Western Kentucky 95 60 +17.94 +17.06
HOME #130 Missouri 83 56 +18.15 +8.85
HOME #267 High Point 92 48 +26.90 +17.10
AWAY # 10 LSU 60 65 -2.30 -2.70
HOME #159 Georgia 92 77 +20.22 -5.22
AWAY # 87 Vanderbilt 78 65 +8.28 +4.72
HOME # 13 Tennessee 107 79 +3.76 +24.24
AWAY # 66 Texas A&M 64 58 +6.44 -0.44
AWAY # 11 Auburn 71 80 -2.26 -6.74
HOME # 38 Mississippi State 82 74 +8.96 -0.96
AWAY # 4 Kansas -4.41 0.327
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, hoshi
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2 years 9 months ago - 2 years 9 months ago #28257
by hoshi
“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits”. Albert Einstein
Thanks Asteroid, up early again or just a late night? Was at the 1978 game. Hope the ending is better, or at least no timeouts when we are out of them. We do have Self and not Owens.
“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits”. Albert Einstein
Last Edit: 2 years 9 months ago by hoshi.
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2 years 9 months ago #28260
by asteroid
According to Pomeroy, we're featuring the #3 and #4 offensive teams in today's
game. What does that mean? I predict a final score of Kansas 150, Kentucky 95.
Oh wait, that was 1989. Time warp.
Dunkel is the pessimist, predicting Kansas to lose by 1. Everybody else is
picking the Jayhawks, with the lone common opponent (Misery) suggesting a 14 point
win for Kansas. Colley is next with an 11.3 point margin for Kansas. RealTime,
even with his enormous home court advantage, only has Kansas by 10 points. The
most reliable prognosticators have it around 5 points.
None of the trend and mental toughness values are statistically significant,
though Kentucky's trend is positive, while the trend for Kansas is still
negative. Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas shrinks to three-quarters
of a point. Talk about nail-biter! Toss the Chiefs' game in there, and we've
had pretty steady diet of those this past week.
Sagarin has the total points at 150.6, while Vegas has it at 152. One wonders
what it is that makes them think they'll score more points than their combined
average, which is only 148. Not a huge difference, but still.
In all-time wins, so far this season Kansas has managed to close the four-game
gap by just one game. Lose today and we're right back where we started the
season, or win today and cut the gap in half. How the season plays out may
depend on how deeply each team makes it in the Big Dance.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UK KU Defensive Stats UK KU
Points/Game 82.3 81.5 Opp Points/Game 64.3 67.9
Avg Score Margin +18.0 +13.6 Opp Effective FG % 46.0 47.9
Assists/Game 16.9 16.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.7 10.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 41.7 37.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 26.2 24.3
Effective FG % 54.7 55.6 Blocks/Game 4.9 4.3
Off Rebound % 37.4 35.4 Steals/Game 7.0 6.7
FTA/FGA 0.249 0.314 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.3 15.8
Turnover % 14.4 15.1
My Stats Comparison KU UK
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.66 +2.94
inconsistency 8.89 10.81
trend -0.33 ± 0.38 +0.25 ± 0.43
mental toughness -0.19 ± 0.30 -0.05 ± 0.22
average total pts 149.47 146.45
Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Misery:
KU +37 Mizz at home (+33 neutral court)
UK +27 Mizz at home (+23 neutral court)
KU +14 UK at home (+10 neutral court)
That's a pretty favorable comparison for Kansas. However, the Jayhawks played
17 points above expectation. Of course, Kentucky also played above expectation,
but by just 9 points. Remove that 8 point difference, and the comparison still
favors Kansas by 6 points.
KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court) KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KSU -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral court)
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Kellan Grady (guard)
most points Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most rebounds Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most assists Sahvir Wheeler (guard)
most steals Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most blocks Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most turnovers Sahvir Wheeler (guard)
most fouls Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
Guard TyTy Washington didn't play against Mississippi State due to an ankle injury,
and we don't know if he'll be available to play against the Jayhawks. That could be
a huge factor, as TyTy is second on the team in minutes played and in points scored.
Reserve forward Jacob Toppin left the previous game with an ankle injury, but his
status is also unavailable; he's seventh on the team in minutes played. Reserve
forward Daimion Collins has an unspecified problem, and an unspecified return date;
he's eighth on the team in minutes played. Reserve gaurd C. J. Fredrick is out with
a hamstring injury. So the key to the game is likely to be how well Kansas can
contain Tshiebwe. Put Marcus Garrett on him. Oh wait...
17-2 16-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kentucky
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + 4.65 78 73 67 # 4 # 17 # 8 # 90
Sagarin Predictor + 4.25 77 73 67.2 # 5 # 17 # 8 # 90
Sagarin Golden Mean + 5.84 78 72 # 3 # 17 # 11 # 90
Sagarin Recent Games + 5.03 78 73 # 4 # 17 # 11 # 90
Sagarin Eigenvector + 7.00 79 72 74
Massey + 3.00 77 74 59 # 6 # 11 # 11 # 72
Pomeroy + 2.33 77 75 # 9 # 12 # 7 # 91
Greenfield + 5.00 78.5 73.5 # 8 # 13 # 6 # 16
Dunkel - 1.00 74 75 # 10 # 11
Vegas (via Dunkel) + 5.00 78.5 73.5
Dolphin Predictive + 3.11 79 76 60.3 # 10 # 8 # 6 # 12
Real Time +10.00 81 71 72.8 # 2 # 5 # 19 # 84
Seven Overtimes + 6.00 77 71 67 # 3 # 3 # 19 # 55
DPPI + 4.40 78 73 64.9 # 6 # 7 # 9 # 67
ESPN BPI + 2.60 59.5 # 9 # 20 # 7 # 46
Whitlock + 4.46 # 5 # 8 # 8 # 62
Colley Matrix +11.26 # 2 # 5 # 35 #103
NCAA NET # 7 # 9
LRMC # 15* # # 52* #
common opponents +14.00
Massey composite # 5 # 12
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average + 5.39 77.9 73.2 65.7
scatter 3.48 1.6 1.5 5.5
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to where
it started at 26-5:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 19 Michigan State 87 74 +4.77 +8.23
HOME #211 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.23 +1.77
HOME #210 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +24.20 +4.80
NEUT # 89 North Texas 71 59 +12.79 -0.79
NEUT # 65 Dayton 73 74 +10.79 -11.79
NEUT # 94 Iona College 96 83 +13.22 -0.22
AWAY # 72 St. John's 95 75 +8.55 +11.45
HOME #185 UTEP 78 52 +22.83 +3.17
HOME #133 Missouri 102 65 +19.73 +17.27
HOME #146 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +20.92 -12.92
HOME #109 Nevada 88 61 +17.48 +9.52
HOME #103 George Mason 76 67 +16.91 -7.91
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.90 +4.10
AWAY # 15 Texas Tech 67 75 +0.47 -8.47
HOME # 43 Iowa State 62 61 +11.49 -10.49
HOME # 47 West Virginia 85 59 +11.78 +14.22
AWAY # 28 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.23 -1.23
AWAY # 69 Kansas State 78 75 +8.43 -5.43
HOME # 15 Texas Tech 94 91 +5.69 -2.69
HOME # 8 Kentucky +4.25 0.666
AWAY # 43 Iowa State +6.27 0.729
HOME # 2 Baylor +1.32 0.557
AWAY # 16 Texas +1.04 0.546
HOME # 28 Oklahoma +9.45 0.828
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +12.12 0.881
AWAY # 47 West Virginia +6.56 0.789
HOME # 69 Kansas State +13.65 0.938
AWAY # 2 Baylor -3.90 0.337
AWAY # 59 TCU +7.79 0.793
HOME # 59 TCU +13.01 0.914
HOME # 16 Texas +6.26 0.756
Here is Kentucky's season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 9 Duke 71 79 +0.37 -8.37
HOME #307 Robert Morris 100 60 +29.60 +10.40
HOME #262 Mount St. Mary's 80 55 +26.53 -1.53
HOME #107 Ohio 77 59 +15.54 +2.46
HOME #287 Albany-NY 86 61 +28.07 -3.07
HOME #283 North Florida(UNF) 86 52 +27.81 +6.19
HOME #335 Central Michigan 85 57 +32.27 -4.27
HOME #220 Southern U. 76 64 +23.25 -11.25
AWAY # 66 Notre Dame 62 66 +6.56 -10.56
NEUT # 32 North Carolina 98 69 +5.71 +23.29
HOME #128 Western Kentucky 95 60 +17.94 +17.06
HOME #133 Missouri 83 56 +18.09 +8.91
HOME #267 High Point 92 48 +26.85 +17.15
AWAY # 10 LSU 60 65 -2.18 -2.82
HOME #157 Georgia 92 77 +20.25 -5.25
AWAY # 87 Vanderbilt 78 65 +8.44 +4.56
HOME # 14 Tennessee 107 79 +3.72 +24.28
AWAY # 64 Texas A&M 64 58 +6.52 -0.52
AWAY # 11 Auburn 71 80 -2.08 -6.92
HOME # 38 Mississippi State 82 74 +8.97 -0.97
AWAY # 5 Kansas -4.25 0.334
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2 years 9 months ago #28261
by asteroid
A late night. Almost always late nights.
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