Big 12 projection, Round 8

Oklahoma back to fifth place after their road win in Morgantown, leapfrogging Oklahoma State and TCU
who both lost.  Iowa State also leapfrogged both of those teams, plus West Virginia, into sixth place.
Mountaineers slip into ninth place.  Should be an interesting Saturday, as only the Iowa State hosting
Misery game is projected as a double-digit margin

                      Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  Kansas          14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1     6  1   Kent(Sa)   KU  by  4.4
#  2  Baylor          14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4     6  2  @Alab(Sa)   BU  by  3.5
# 15  Texas Tech       9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4     5  3   MsSt(Sa)   TTU by  7.6
# 16  Texas           11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0     5  3   Tenn(Sa)   UT  by  1.8
# 30  Oklahoma         8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0     3  5  @Aub (Sa)   Aub by  7.5
# 43  Iowa State       7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4     3  5   Mizz(Sa)   ISU by 11.0
# 50  Oklahoma State   6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1     3  5  @Fla (Sa)   Fla by  5.5
# 60  TCU              6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9     3  3   LSU (Sa)   LSU by  5.6
# 48  West Virginia    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2     2  5  @Ark (Sa)   Ark by  4.9
# 68  Kansas State     4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5     2  6  @Miss(Sa)   Mis by  0.1

Sagarin's Eigenvector analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 8, with honorable
mention to my performance adjustment to Sagarin Predictor, which came within a point.  Sagarin
Recent Games pulled up the rear, which doesn't surprise me, given how poorly Kansas State did
after a series of three strong performances.  Pomeroy now has the season lead by a hair over
my performance adjustment to Sagarin Predictor.  Greenfield and Andy Dolphin tied for third and
Vegas a close fifth.  Dunkel still pulling up the rear for the season, with Sagarin Eigenvector
in second-last, and RealTime and Colley tied for third-last.  But just 2.5 points per game
separate the worst from first.

Three road wins in Round 8, only one of which had been projected.  Round 9 isn't until after the
Challenge with the SEC.  Stay tuned.

Road wins (16 out of 38)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
4 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU              0 Kansas                                         +3 KU 
3 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU                 0 Texas Tech                                     +2 BU
2 TCU            KSU ISU                     1 Texas          KSU                             +1 TTU
2 Texas          KSU TCU                     2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +1 UT 
1 Kansas State   UT                          2 Iowa State     BU  TCU                          0 TCU
1 Oklahoma State BU                          2 Oklahoma       KU  BU                          -1 ISU
1 Texas Tech     BU                          2 Oklahoma State KU  ISU                         -1 OU 
1 Iowa State     OSU                         2 TCU            BU  UT                          -1 OSU          
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         2 West Virginia  BU  OU                          -2 KSU
0 West Virginia                              3 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU                      -2 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +2.22    West Virginia     7.40
Iowa State      +1.98    Kansas State      8.83
Kansas State    +1.05    Kansas            8.87
Kansas          +0.67    Texas             9.14
Oklahoma        +0.67    Baylor            9.59
Texas Tech      +0.59    Texas Tech        9.71
TCU             +0.39    TCU              10.13
Texas           +0.35    Oklahoma         10.96
Oklahoma State  +0.28    Iowa State       11.50
West Virginia   -0.98    Oklahoma State   11.51

Three consecutive below expectation performances for Kansas, and five out of the last six, putting
the Jayhawks at the bottom of the trend statistic rankings.  We're due for an above-expectation
performance.  At least those below-expectation performances haven't been by enough to cause losses.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.38 +/- 0.51    Iowa State      +0.36 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    +0.27 +/- 0.37    Kansas State    +0.07 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech      +0.21 +/- 0.38    Baylor          +0.05 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      -0.07 +/- 0.46    Oklahoma        +0.03 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.07 +/- 0.44    Texas Tech       0.00 +/- 0.16
Texas           -0.10 +/- 0.36    Oklahoma State  -0.03 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State  -0.20 +/- 0.49    TCU             -0.13 +/- 0.25
Baylor          -0.24 +/- 0.38    Texas           -0.15 +/- 0.16
West Virginia   -0.24 +/- 0.31    Kansas          -0.17 +/- 0.29
Kansas          -0.33 +/- 0.37    West Virginia   -0.21 +/- 0.17

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          81.00   Texas           55.40   Kansas          149.47   Baylor          +18.00
Baylor          78.00   Baylor          60.00   Baylor          138.00   Texas           +13.40
Texas Tech      74.05   Texas Tech      61.50   Texas Tech      135.55   Texas Tech      +12.55
Oklahoma        70.30   Iowa State      61.75   Oklahoma State  135.37   Kansas          +12.53
Iowa State      68.95   TCU             62.12   Oklahoma        133.40   Iowa State       +7.20
Texas           68.80   Oklahoma        63.10   West Virginia   133.21   Oklahoma         +7.20
Oklahoma State  68.63   Kansas State    63.37   Iowa State      130.70   TCU              +5.59
TCU             67.71   West Virginia   65.68   Kansas State    130.37   Kansas State     +3.63
West Virginia   67.53   Oklahoma State  66.74   TCU             129.82   Oklahoma State   +1.89
Kansas State    67.00   Kansas          68.47   Texas           124.20   West Virginia    +1.84

Only one team now outside of the Top 100 in Schedule Strength; Texas hasn't played anybody among
the top three in the conference so far, but four of their next five games are against Top 15
opponents, including Tennessee in the Challenge with the SEC.  That'll get them out of triple
digit territory.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  79.32 ( 10) down 2
Kansas State    78.98 ( 15) up 10
Kansas          78.91 ( 16) up  2
Oklahoma        77.89 ( 23) up  9
West Virginia   77.55 ( 29) up  8
Iowa State      77.53 ( 30) up  9
Baylor          77.52 ( 31) down 5
Texas Tech      75.55 ( 69) up 29
TCU             75.01 ( 84) up 12
Texas           74.13 (104) up 16