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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Texas Tech game
- asteroid
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2 years 10 months ago #28202
by asteroid
"So the Jayhawks shouldn't have to worry too much about the Kansas State offense."
And then Pack goes crazy from behind the arc, and the Wildcats score 50 points
in the first half. I suppose I should have also pointed out that Kansas allows
the most points of any Big 12 team, though some of that *is* due to pace. It
just goes to show you that in this league, you cannot take anybody lightly, not
even the kittens. The second half was more like what I expected out of Kansas
State offensively.
But what about today's game, the first Big Monday appearance of the season?
Recall that Kansas lost in Lubbock when the Red Raiders were *without* their
two leading scorers. Since then, we've had a few more common opponents, and
those comparisons suggest that Kansas should be a 5.2 point favorite, in line
with most of the other prognostications.
Everyone is picking the Jayhawks, with Dunkel being the most optimistic at
12.0 points. RealTime is the second-most optimistic; recall that RealTime uses
an enormous home court advantage, and it's worth mentioning that the RealTime
web site hasn't been updated to include the results of the last four games,
despite the banner claiming that it updates every 5 minutes! That explains
Tech's strength of schedule still being ranked #264. So the prediction is
out-of-date. Colley's ratings suggest a 10.8 point margin, however, almost as
optimistic. The pessimist is Massey, who has the margin at just 5.0 points.
The average is 7.3 points, with a scatter of 2.2 points.
None of the trend or mental toughness ratings are statistically significant,
but taken at face value (Tech's trend is somewhat positive), the margin for
Kansas shrinks to 3.7 points.
Texas Tech has the conference's second-stingiest defense. Having said that,
maybe Harris will go crazy from behind the arc and the Jayhawks will hang 50
on the Red Raiders in the first half.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats TTU KU Defensive Stats TTU KU
Points/Game 73.9 80.8 Opp Points/Game 59.1 66.7
Avg Score Margin +14.8 +14.2 Opp Effective FG % 45.2 47.7
Assists/Game 14.1 16.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.1 10.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 38.1 36.6 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.4 23.9
Effective FG % 52.8 56.1 Blocks/Game 3.1 4.4
Off Rebound % 34.6 35.6 Steals/Game 7.9 6.8
FTA/FGA 0.373 0.307 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.4 15.7
Turnover % 17.0 15.2
My Stats Comparison KU TTU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.81 +0.81
inconsistency 8.96 9.98
trend -0.32 ± 0.41 +0.21 ± 0.43
mental toughness -0.20 ± 0.31 -0.02 ± 0.17
average total pts 147.50 132.95
Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all in conference, one of which Texas Tech has
already played twice (Iowa State), plus the head-to-head in Lubbock, giving us
six scores to compare:
KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court) KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
TTU -4 ISU on road ( 0 neutral court) TTU +12 ISU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU +1 TTU at home ( -3 neutral court) KU -7 TTU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
TTU +21 OSU at home (+17 neutral court)
KU +2 TTU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TTU -11 KSU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU +18 TTU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
TTU +13 WVU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU 0 TTU at home ( -4 neutral court)
The average is 5.17 points in favor of Kansas, though perhaps that last one
should carry more weight. Then again, Tech was missing two key players the
last time we played them, so should we expect an even more difficult game
this time around?
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Kevin McCullar (guard)
most points Terrance Shannon Jr. (guard)
most rebounds Kevin McCullar (guard)
most assists Kevin McCullar (guard)
most steals Kevin McCullar (guard)
most blocks Marcus Santos-Silva (forward)
most turnovers Terrance Shannon Jr. (guard)
most fouls Kevin McCullar (guard)
Reserve guards Ethan Duncan and Sardaar Calhoun would appear to be unavailable
for the game due to unspecified injuries with unknown return dates. Reserve
forward K. J. Allen has missed the last three games, and might or might not be
available for Monday's game against Kansas. None of them played against Kansas
on January 8, when McCullar and Shannon were unavailable.
16-2 15-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Texas Tech
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + 6.31 73 66 72 # 4 # 18 # 15 # 98
Sagarin Predictor + 6.15 73 67 74.0 # 4 # 18 # 15 # 98
Sagarin Golden Mean + 6.98 73 66 # 3 # 18 # 14 # 98
Sagarin Recent Games + 5.54 72 67 # 5 # 18 # 12 # 98
Sagarin Eigenvector + 9.81 75 65 80
Massey + 5.00 72 67 67 # 5 # 13 # 14 # 82
Pomeroy + 5.07 70 65 # 9 # 16 # 14 #116
Greenfield + 6.50 73 67 # 8 # 15 # 16 # 20
Dunkel +12.00 77.5 65.5 # 9 # 16
Vegas (via Dunkel) + 6.50 73 67
Dolphin Predictive + 5.85 73 67 69.7 # 9 # 10 # 13 # 12
Real Time +11.00 84 73 76.7 # 2 # 16 # 27 #264
Seven Overtimes + 8.00 74 66 78 # 5 # 3 # 49 # 74
DPPI + 6.10 75 69 70.3 # 7 # 12 # 13 # 68
ESPN BPI + 7.20 75.6 # 8 # 29 # 16 # 41
Whitlock + 7.53 # 5 # 10 # 16 # 63
Colley Matrix +10.82 # 2 # 5 # 29 # 86
NCAA NET # 7 # 13
LRMC # 15* # # 16* #
common opponents + 5.17
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average + 7.31 74.1 67.0 73.7
scatter 2.17 3.3 2.0 4.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to where
it started at 26-5:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 20 Michigan State 87 74 +4.78 +8.22
HOME #207 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.31 +1.69
HOME #208 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +24.39 +4.61
NEUT # 88 North Texas 71 59 +12.54 -0.54
NEUT # 56 Dayton 73 74 +10.05 -11.05
NEUT # 97 Iona College 96 83 +13.34 -0.34
AWAY # 76 St. John's 95 75 +9.07 +10.93
HOME #177 UTEP 78 52 +22.67 +3.33
HOME #139 Missouri 102 65 +20.47 +16.53
HOME #142 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +20.56 -12.56
HOME #109 Nevada 88 61 +17.52 +9.48
HOME #106 George Mason 76 67 +17.10 -8.10
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.83 +4.17
AWAY # 15 Texas Tech 67 75 +0.89 -8.89
HOME # 45 Iowa State 62 61 +11.55 -10.55
HOME # 43 West Virginia 85 59 +11.50 +14.50
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.69 -1.69
AWAY # 64 Kansas State 78 75 +8.08 -5.08
HOME # 15 Texas Tech +6.11 0.740
HOME # 9 Kentucky +4.21 0.663
AWAY # 45 Iowa State +6.33 0.727
HOME # 3 Baylor +1.90 0.581
AWAY # 19 Texas +1.81 0.583
HOME # 31 Oklahoma +9.91 0.837
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +12.05 0.876
AWAY # 43 West Virginia +6.28 0.778
HOME # 64 Kansas State +13.30 0.936
AWAY # 3 Baylor -3.32 0.361
AWAY # 52 TCU +7.10 0.784
HOME # 52 TCU +12.32 0.913
HOME # 19 Texas +7.03 0.792
Here is Texas Tech's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #291 North Florida(UNF) 89 74 +26.24 -11.24
HOME #327 Grambling State 88 62 +29.33 -3.33
HOME #297 Prairie View A&M 84 49 +26.96 +8.04
NEUT #351 Incarnate Word 84 62 +30.72 -8.72
HOME #348 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 96 40 +33.16 +22.84
HOME #332 Lamar 89 57 +30.06 +1.94
AWAY # 46 Providence 68 72 +2.84 -6.84
NEUT # 13 Tennessee 57 52 -1.05 +6.05
HOME #198 Arkansas State 75 62 +20.02 -7.02
NEUT # 1 Gonzaga 55 69 -7.08 -6.92
HOME #226 Eastern Washington 78 46 +21.76 +10.24
HOME #328 Alabama State 75 53 +29.44 -7.44
AWAY # 45 Iowa State 47 51 +2.83 -6.83
HOME # 4 Kansas 75 67 -0.89 +8.89
AWAY # 3 Baylor 65 62 -6.82 +9.82
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State 78 57 +8.55 +12.45
AWAY # 64 Kansas State 51 62 +4.58 -15.58
HOME # 45 Iowa State 72 60 +8.05 +3.95
HOME # 43 West Virginia 78 65 +8.00 +5.00
AWAY # 4 Kansas -6.11 0.260
HOME # 37 Mississippi State +7.12 0.751
HOME # 19 Texas +3.53 0.650
AWAY # 43 West Virginia +2.78 0.624
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma +1.19 0.545
HOME # 52 TCU +8.82 0.822
HOME # 3 Baylor -1.60 0.435
AWAY # 19 Texas -1.69 0.427
HOME # 31 Oklahoma +6.41 0.728
AWAY # 52 TCU +3.60 0.647
HOME # 64 Kansas State +9.80 0.854
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State +3.33 0.620
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, NotOstertag, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, jaythawk1
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