Big 12 projection, Round 7

TCU played 18 points above expectation in defeating Iowa State, in Ames, no less, and so
the Horned Frogs leapfrogged West Virginia, Iowa State, and Oklahoma in the projected
standings, all the way up to sixth place, solidifying their addition to the NCAA Tournament
field by Lunardi.  Although West Virginia and Iowa State both lost, the Mountaineers played
only 5 points below expectation, while the Cyclones played 18 points below expectation, and
that caused the two teams to swap order, so West Virginia stayed in eighth place while Iowa
State dropped into ninth place and Oklahoma slipped into seventh place.  No other changes in
the projected standings, though Baylor did close the gap on Kansas a bit.  The Jayhawks
picked up 0.2 of a projected win by beating Kansas State, but then surrendered 0.1 of a
projected win in the revised ratings by playing 5 points below expectation, while Baylor
played 14 points above expectation in defeating Oklahoma, picking up half a projected win in
the process.

                      Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------
#  4  Kansas          13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9     5  1   TTU (Mo)
#  3  Baylor          14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3     5  2   KSU (Tu)
# 15  Texas Tech       9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6     5  2  @KU  (Mo)
# 19  Texas           11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4     4  3  @TCU (Tu)
# 50  Oklahoma State   7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7     3  4   ISU (We)
# 52  TCU              6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5     3  2   UT  (Tu)
# 31  Oklahoma         8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3     2  5  @WVU (We)
# 43  West Virginia    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9     2  4   OU  (We)
# 45  Iowa State       6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8     2  5  @OSU (We)
# 64  Kansas State     4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6     2  5  @BU  (Tu)

My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 7, the second consecutive win
for my trend analysis, now with three wins on the season, the only prognosticator with more than
one.  Seven Overtimes turned in the worst performance by a point over Dunkel.  Andy Dolphin now
holds the season lead by a tenth of a point over Greenfield, who is turn is a half point better
than Vegas.  Dunkel pulls up the rear in the season standings by 1.2 points over Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis (why does he compute it?).

Prognosticator                            Total Error   Per Game Error
------------------------------------      -----------   --------------
Sagarin Overall                              272.3            8.3
Sagarin Predictor                            272.2            8.2
Sagarin Golden Mean                          273.1            8.3
Sagarin Recent Games                         286.2            8.7
Sagarin Eigenvector                          349.8           10.6
Massey                                       266.0            8.1
Pomeroy                                      262.9            8.0
Greenfield                                   261.0            7.9
Dunkel                                       351.0           10.6
Vegas                                        261.5            7.9
Dolphin                                      260.9            7.9
Colley                                       323.7            9.8
Whitlock                                     275.9            8.4
ESPN BPI                                     264.3            8.0
Seven Overtimes                              318.0            9.6
Real Time                                    325.0            9.8
Sagarin Predictor plus performance           265.9            8.1
Sagarin Predictor plus home court tweak      272.3            8.3
Sagarin Predictor plus trend analysis        271.3            8.2

Three road wins in Round 7, two of which had been projected, so we're now two road wins over the
long-term average of one in three road wins.  Just one road win is projected for Round 8, namely
Texas at TCU.  Considering the way TCU handled Iowa State in Ames, this one is by no means a lock.

Road wins (13 out of 33)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
4 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU              0 Kansas                                         +3 KU 
3 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU                 0 Texas Tech                                     +2 BU
2 TCU            KSU ISU                     1 Oklahoma State KU                              +1 TCU
1 Kansas State   UT                          1 TCU            BU                              +1 TTU
1 Oklahoma State BU                          1 Texas          KSU                              0 UT 
1 Texas          KSU                         1 West Virginia  BU                               0 OSU
1 Texas Tech     BU                          2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         -1 WVU
0 Iowa State                                 2 Iowa State     BU  TCU                         -2 ISU          
0 Oklahoma                                   2 Oklahoma       KU  BU                          -2 KSU
0 West Virginia                              3 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU                      -2 OU 

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +2.28    West Virginia     7.38
Iowa State      +1.98    Texas             8.28
Kansas State    +1.36    Kansas State      8.55
TCU             +1.02    Kansas            8.96
Kansas          +0.81    TCU               9.12
Texas Tech      +0.81    Baylor            9.62
Oklahoma State  +0.54    Texas Tech        9.98
Oklahoma        +0.42    Oklahoma         11.12
Texas           +0.23    Oklahoma State   11.73
West Virginia   -0.84    Iowa State       11.80

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.91 +/- 0.45    Iowa State      +0.36 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    +0.54 +/- 0.38    Kansas State    +0.15 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech      +0.21 +/- 0.43    Baylor          +0.03 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.35    Oklahoma        -0.01 +/- 0.23
Iowa State      -0.15 +/- 0.51    TCU             -0.01 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  -0.15 +/- 0.55    Texas Tech      -0.02 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma        -0.26 +/- 0.48    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.28
Kansas          -0.32 +/- 0.41    Kansas          -0.20 +/- 0.31
Baylor          -0.42 +/- 0.40    Texas           -0.21 +/- 0.15
Texas           -0.45 +/- 0.34    West Virginia   -0.21 +/- 0.17

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          80.39   Texas           55.79   Kansas          147.50   Baylor          +17.84
Baylor          78.32   Texas Tech      59.89   Baylor          138.79   Kansas          +13.28
Texas Tech      73.05   Baylor          60.47   Oklahoma State  133.72   Texas Tech      +13.16
Oklahoma        70.11   Iowa State      60.84   Oklahoma        133.37   Texas           +12.68
TCU             68.94   TCU             61.31   West Virginia   133.17   TCU              +7.62
Texas           68.47   Kansas State    62.89   Texas Tech      132.95   Iowa State       +7.21
Oklahoma State  68.06   Oklahoma        63.26   Kansas State    130.78   Oklahoma         +6.84
Iowa State      68.05   West Virginia   65.22   TCU             130.25   Kansas State     +5.00
West Virginia   67.94   Oklahoma State  65.67   Iowa State      128.89   West Virginia    +2.72
Kansas State    67.89   Kansas          67.11   Texas           124.26   Oklahoma State   +2.39

The Schedule Strength rating value for Kansas went up a fair amount, but the ranking was
unchanged.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  79.31 (  8) up  6
Kansas          78.38 ( 18) even
Kansas State    77.72 ( 25) up 14
Baylor          77.47 ( 26) up 12
Oklahoma        77.22 ( 32) up 12
West Virginia   77.05 ( 37) up 18
Iowa State      76.94 ( 39) up  1
TCU             74.29 ( 96) up 35
Texas Tech      74.16 ( 98) up 31
Texas           73.43 (120) up 37