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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Kansas State game
- asteroid
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2 years 10 months ago #28175
by asteroid
Kansas State has the lowest-scoring offense in the Big 12, and that's not because
they play at a slow pace; Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma all play at a slower
pace than Kansas State does. In conference play, the Wildcats have yet to score
in the 70s. So the Jayhawks shouldn't have to worry too much about the Kansas State
offense. Even their defense is only middle of the pack in the Big 12, though in
their last three games, the Wildcats have allowed an average of 59 points, compared
to 71 points in their first three conference games, and their three-point defense
is aomng the Division I elite. Three of their four conference losses were by 2, 3,
and 3 points, so it was only their home game with Texas that stands out. The Wildcats
are not to be taken lightly, despite being at the bottom of the conference. Those
last two games, both wins, have certainly given them a lot of confidence.
Kansas State is near the top of the conference in both trend and mental toughness.
Those alone suggest just a 2 point loss to Kansas.
Kansas State has played 4 games above expectation by enough to overcome an 8.11 point
margin, including their two most recent conference games. That's out of 17 games for
a 23.5 percent chance of winning. Similarly, Kansas has played 4 games below
expectation by enough to squander an 8.11 point margin. That's also out of 17 games
for that same 23.5 percent chance of losing. Pretty consistent with the average of
the various prognosticators.
All the prognosticators pick Kansas to win, with the common opponent compariosn
being the most pessimistic at just a single point, and Sagarin's eigenvector
analysis being the most optimistic at a bit under 14 points. The average is 7.9
points with a scatter of 3.1 points.
Time to get a little sleep before tip-off. I wonder if Sagarin is going to
continue waiting until after 1530 UTC to post his latest ratings and predictions
for the day's games?
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats KSU KU Defensive Stats KSU KU
Points/Game 68.2 81.0 Opp Points/Game 61.3 66.2
Avg Score Margin +6.9 +14.8 Opp Effective FG % 44.9 47.3
Assists/Game 13.2 16.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.8 10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.9 36.1 Def Rebounds/Gm 25.8 23.8
Effective FG % 49.9 56.5 Blocks/Game 1.8 4.5
Off Rebound % 25.0 34.4 Steals/Game 7.4 7.1
FTA/FGA 0.281 0.296 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.8 15.8
Turnover % 15.5 15.3
My Stats Comparison KU KSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.01 +1.34
inconsistency 8.99 8.70
trend -0.24 ± 0.46 +0.51 ± 0.42
mental toughness -0.16 ± 0.31 +0.13 ± 0.17
average total pts 147.18 129.47
Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, all in conference:
KU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KSU -2 OU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU +1 KSU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)
KSU -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU +17 KSU on road (+21 neutral court)
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KSU +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU -15 KSU on road (-11 neutral court)
The average is a mere 1 point margin for Kansas.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Nijel Pack (guard)
most points Nijel Pack (guard)
most rebounds Mark Smith (guard)
most assists Markquis Nowell (guard)
most steals Markquis Nowell (guard)
most blocks Carlton Linguard Jr. (forward)
most turnovers Markquis Nowell (guard)
most fouls Mike McGuirl (guard)
Reserve guard Trey Harris and reserve forward Logan Landers haves been out for
COVID protocol. With quarantine periods down to five days, one might expect
both to be avaiable, but medical personnel would have to clear them, so who knows?
Reserve guard Maximus Edwards has been recovering from an injury and has yet to
play this season. Reserve forward Seryee Lewis is expected to miss the entire
season with a knee injury.
15-2 10-7
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kansas State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + 8.29 72 64 77 # 4 # 20 # 66 # 39
Sagarin Predictor + 8.11 72 64 82.0 # 4 # 20 # 64 # 39
Sagarin Golden Mean + 9.40 73 64 # 2 # 20 # 71 # 39
Sagarin Recent Games + 4.57 71 66 # 5 # 20 # 43 # 39
Sagarin Eigenvector +13.65 75 62 87
Massey + 6.00 71 65 72 # 5 # 12 # 56 # 41
Pomeroy + 6.51 73 66 # 7 # 20 # 55 # 59
Greenfield + 7.00 73 66 # 6 # 14 # 62 # 40
Dunkel +12.00 77 65 # 11 # 76
Vegas (via Dunkel) + 7.00 72.5 65.5
Dolphin Predictive + 5.41 73 68 68.3 # 9 # 11 # 44 # 32
Real Time + 9.00 81 72 71.3 # 2 # 16 #152 #238
Seven Overtimes + 8.00 73 65 84 # 1 # 3 #120 # 50
DPPI + 7.50 75 68 75.0 # 6 # 15 # 38 # 51
ESPN BPI + 7.20 75.4 # 9 # 28 # 62 # 23
Whitlock + 8.89 # 5 # 10 # 66 # 51
Colley Matrix +13.44 # 2 # 4 #105 # 97
NCAA NET # 7 # 63
LRMC # 15* # #121* #
common opponents + 1.00
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average + 7.94 73.7 65.8 76.9
scatter 3.05 2.7 2.4 6.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is still at 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 20 Michigan State 87 74 +4.72 +8.28
HOME #205 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.33 +1.67
HOME #218 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.07 +3.93
NEUT # 92 North Texas 71 59 +12.94 -0.94
NEUT # 53 Dayton 73 74 +10.05 -11.05
NEUT # 98 Iona College 96 83 +13.38 -0.38
AWAY # 71 St. John's 95 75 +8.72 +11.28
HOME #184 UTEP 78 52 +23.27 +2.73
HOME #146 Missouri 102 65 +21.24 +15.76
HOME #133 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +20.17 -12.17
HOME #112 Nevada 88 61 +17.89 +9.11
HOME #110 George Mason 76 67 +17.62 -8.62
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.86 +4.14
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech 67 75 +1.30 -9.30
HOME # 38 Iowa State 62 61 +11.27 -10.27
HOME # 43 West Virginia 85 59 +11.78 +14.22
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.27 -1.27
AWAY # 64 Kansas State +8.11 0.820
HOME # 18 Texas Tech +7.00 0.765
HOME # 9 Kentucky +4.48 0.672
AWAY # 38 Iowa State +5.57 0.711
HOME # 3 Baylor +2.56 0.607
AWAY # 17 Texas +1.22 0.556
HOME # 33 Oklahoma +9.97 0.835
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +12.56 0.880
AWAY # 43 West Virginia +6.08 0.770
HOME # 64 Kansas State +13.81 0.941
AWAY # 3 Baylor -3.14 0.370
AWAY # 61 TCU +7.70 0.815
HOME # 61 TCU +13.40 0.940
HOME # 17 Texas +6.92 0.787
Here is Kansas State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #327 Florida A&M 67 57 +22.07 -12.07
HOME #340 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 79 64 +24.03 -9.03
NEUT # 31 Arkansas 64 72 -3.92 -4.08
NEUT # 12 Illinois 64 72 -8.54 +0.54
HOME #347 North Dakota 84 42 +25.09 +16.91
HOME #276 Albany-NY 71 43 +18.21 +9.79
AWAY # 80 Wichita State 65 59 -1.68 +7.68
HOME # 40 Marquette 63 64 +0.55 -1.55
HOME #307 Green Bay 82 64 +20.63 -2.63
AWAY #131 Nebraska 67 58 +3.33 +5.67
HOME #317 McNeese State 74 59 +21.28 -6.28
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma 69 71 -6.69 +4.69
HOME # 17 Texas 57 70 -4.04 -8.96
AWAY # 43 West Virginia 68 71 -4.88 +1.88
HOME # 61 TCU 57 60 +2.44 -5.44
HOME # 18 Texas Tech 62 51 -3.96 +14.96
AWAY # 17 Texas 66 65 -9.74 +10.74
HOME # 4 Kansas -8.11 0.180
AWAY # 3 Baylor -14.10 0.065
AWAY #102 Mississippi +0.11 0.504
HOME # 50 Oklahoma State +1.60 0.560
AWAY # 61 TCU -3.26 0.350
HOME # 3 Baylor -8.40 0.184
AWAY # 38 Iowa State -5.39 0.293
HOME # 43 West Virginia +0.82 0.541
AWAY # 50 Oklahoma State -4.10 0.349
AWAY # 4 Kansas -13.81 0.059
HOME # 38 Iowa State +0.31 0.513
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech -9.66 0.156
HOME # 33 Oklahoma -0.99 0.461
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk
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