Big 12 projection, Round 6

The middle of the conference is tightly packed, so lots of shuffling is bound to occur
as those fractional wins become either full wins or no wins.  Such is the case for
Oklahoma State, who barely beat TCU, but it was enough to leapfrog both Iowa State and
Oklahoma, because they both lost.  No other changes in the projected standings, though
Kansas State's gain of 1.2 projected wins came at the expense of mostly Texas.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8     4  1  @KSU (Sa)   KU  by  8.0
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8     4  2  @OU  (Sa)   BU  by  4.5
# 16  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2     4  2   WVU (Sa)   TTU by  7.8
# 17  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5     3  3   OSU (Sa)   UT  by  8.3
# 51  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9     3  3  @UT  (Sa)              
# 32  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8     2  4   BU  (Sa)              
# 40  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7     2  4   TCU (Sa)   ISU by  5.1
# 46  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2     2  3  @TTU (Sa)              
# 62  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4     2  2  @ISU (Sa)              
# 64  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7     2  4   KU  (Sa)              

My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 6, with honorable mention to
my tweak of Sagarin Predictor by the performance values shown below.  The trend analysis is the
first to win honors for the second time this season.  RealTime pulls up the rear this time around.
Vegas and Greenfield share the season lead, with Dunkel pulling up the rear.

[table too wide for easy display]

Three road wins in Round 6, two of which had been projected, so we're a hair over the long-term
average of one in three road wins.  Two road wins are projected for Round 7, Kansas and Baylor.

Road wins (10 out of 28)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
3 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU                 0 Kansas                                         +2 KU 
2 Kansas         OSU OU                      0 Texas Tech                                     +1 BU
1 Kansas State   UT                          1 Iowa State     BU                              +1 TTU
1 Oklahoma State BU                          1 Oklahoma       KU                               0 UT 
1 TCU            KSU                         1 Oklahoma State KU                               0 OSU
1 Texas          KSU                         1 TCU            BU                               0 TCU
1 Texas Tech     BU                          1 Texas          KSU                             -1 ISU
0 Iowa State                                 1 West Virginia  BU                              -1 KSU          
0 Oklahoma                                   2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         -1 OU 
0 West Virginia                              2 Kansas State   UT  TCU                         -1 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +2.51    West Virginia     7.30
Baylor          +2.26    TCU               8.19
Kansas State    +1.33    Texas             8.37
Texas Tech      +1.07    Kansas State      8.69
Kansas          +1.05    Kansas            9.04
Oklahoma        +0.61    Baylor            9.93
TCU             +0.52    Texas Tech       10.45
Oklahoma State  +0.38    Iowa State       10.97
Texas           -0.02    Oklahoma         11.26
West Virginia   -0.71    Oklahoma State   12.14

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.62 +/- 0.48    Iowa State      +0.38 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    +0.50 +/- 0.42    Kansas State    +0.14 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      +0.19 +/- 0.51    Oklahoma        +0.07 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.49    Baylor          +0.01 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   -0.05 +/- 0.37    Texas Tech      -0.02 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        -0.12 +/- 0.53    Oklahoma State  -0.07 +/- 0.30
Kansas          -0.24 +/- 0.46    Kansas          -0.15 +/- 0.31
Oklahoma State  -0.27 +/- 0.62    TCU             -0.15 +/- 0.22
Texas           -0.42 +/- 0.38    Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.15
Baylor          -0.64 +/- 0.44    West Virginia   -0.22 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          80.41   Texas           55.94   Kansas          147.18   Baylor          +17.83
Baylor          78.94   Texas Tech      59.50   Baylor          140.06   Kansas          +13.65
Texas Tech      72.89   Iowa State      60.83   Oklahoma State  135.29   Texas Tech      +13.39
Oklahoma        71.28   Baylor          61.11   Oklahoma        134.33   Texas           +13.33
Iowa State      69.50   Kansas State    61.88   West Virginia   132.59   Iowa State       +8.67
TCU             69.47   TCU             62.60   Texas Tech      132.39   Oklahoma         +8.22
Texas           69.28   Oklahoma        63.06   TCU             132.07   TCU              +6.87
Oklahoma State  68.94   West Virginia   64.59   Iowa State      130.33   Kansas State     +5.71
West Virginia   68.00   Oklahoma State  66.35   Kansas State    129.47   West Virginia    +3.41
Kansas State    67.59   Kansas          66.76   Texas           125.22   Oklahoma State   +2.59

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  78.41 ( 14) down 4
Kansas          77.90 ( 18) up  9
Baylor          76.71 ( 38) up 14
Kansas State    76.67 ( 39) up 25
Iowa State      76.62 ( 40) up 27
Oklahoma        76.46 ( 44) up 14
West Virginia   75.97 ( 55) up 16
Texas Tech      73.38 (129) up 43
TCU             73.33 (131) up 39
Texas           72.53 (157) up 36