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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
- asteroid
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2 years 10 months ago #28136
by asteroid
Oklahoma has played just four games by more than 4.46 points above expectation,
out of 17 total, for a 23.5 percent chance of winning today's game. Meanwhile,
Kansas has played five games by more than 4.46 points below expectation, out of
16 total, for a 31.3 percent chance of losing today's game. Those average to
a 27.4 percent chance of the Jayhawks losing, somewhat more favorable for Kansas
than the computer ratings would suggest.
None of the trend and mental toughness values are statistically significant,
but taken at face value, the margin for Kansas would shrink to just 4.0 points.
The most pessimistic prediction comes from the Iowa State common opponent.
Oklahoma handled them easily at home, while Kansas needed a slightly errant
buzzer beater shot to survive at home against the Cyclones. Oklahoma would
be favored by 16 points using this single common opponent. The only other
negative prediction is from RealTime, who likes to use that enormous home
court advantage. The rest favor Kansas, with Dunkel being the most optimistic
of the bunch, predicting the Jayhawks to win by 11. The most trustworthy
prognosticators have it in the 3 to 4 point range, meaning a two-possession
game. The average is just 2.9 points, with a scatter of 5.6 points.
Did something finally click in the second half of the West Virginia game, or
was it just one of those "better than you are" halves? Does Wilson need to
start to realize his full potential? Did the benching finally get McCormack
to get his head in the game? And what of Remy? If the players who performed
so spectacularly in the second half against West Virginia start against
Oklahoma, will playing Remy adversely affect the team chemistry? Inquiring
minds want to know.
This is the first of seven consecutive games in which the current projected
margin for Kansas is in the single digits, meaning no easy games. A win
today earns the Jayhawks 0.34 of a projected win, plus or minus whatever the
revised ratings might produce. Keeping some distance from Baylor in the
conference race would be a Good Thing. Remember, the original projection
called for the champion to have four conference losses, and so far Baylor
has only two. Running the rest of the table isn't totally ridiculous, though
two consecutive home losses may have damaged their confidence.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 72.4 81.9 Opp Points/Game 62.1 66.3
Avg Score Margin +10.3 +15.6 Opp Effective FG % 47.0 47.4
Assists/Game 15.7 16.7 Off Rebounds/Gm 6.5 10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 33.4 36.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.1 23.9
Effective FG % 56.8 56.6 Blocks/Game 1.9 4.8
Off Rebound % 23.4 34.4 Steals/Game 7.7 7.3
FTA/FGA 0.262 0.307 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.4 15.8
Turnover % 19.4 15.2
My Stats Comparison KU OU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.04 +0.75
inconsistency 9.34 11.62
trend -0.22 ± 0.52 -0.15 ± 0.59
mental toughness -0.12 ± 0.34 +0.07 ± 0.25
average total pts 148.19 134.53
Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Iowa State:
KU +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
OU +13 ISU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU -16 OU on road (-12 neutral court)
Players to Watch
================
most minutes two-way tie
most points Tanner Groves (forward)
most rebounds Jalen Hill (forward)
most assists Jordan Goldwire (guard)
most steals Umoja Gibson (guard)
most blocks Jalen Hill (forward)
most turnovers Elijah Harkless (guard)
most fouls Tanner Groves (forward)
Reserve guards Alston Mason and Marvin Johnson were in COVID protocol as of this
writing; no indication as to when that will end. Reserve forward Ethan Chargois
missed the previous game for unspecified reasons, with no indication whether the
same issue will prevent him from playing in today's game; he's their eighth man
in terms of minutes played.
14-2 12-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + 4.45 73 69 66 # 2 # 27 # 31 # 59
Sagarin Predictor + 4.47 73 69 66.4 # 4 # 27 # 33 # 59
Sagarin Golden Mean + 4.87 74 69 # 2 # 27 # 35 # 59
Sagarin Recent Games + 2.12 72 70 # 7 # 27 # 31 # 59
Sagarin Eigenvector + 6.66 74 68 73
Massey + 3.00 72 69 59 # 8 # 16 # 33 # 49
Pomeroy + 3.84 75 71 # 8 # 30 # 34 # 63
Greenfield + 3.50 74 70 # 8 # 18 # 30 # 35
Dunkel +11.00 70.5 59.5 # 14 # 32
Vegas (via Dunkel) + 3.50 74 70
Dolphin Predictive + 2.82 74 71 59.6 # 9 # 16 # 27 # 29
Real Time - 5.00 76 81 37.1 # 2 # 16 # 30 #107
Seven Overtimes + 2.00 72 70 57 # 1 # 5 # 34 # 55
DPPI + 4.70 74.5 69.8 65.4 # 6 # 15 # 38 # 51
ESPN BPI + 3.30 62.4 # 10 # 41 # 32 # 55
Whitlock + 5.47 # 4 # 13 # 34 # 46
Colley Matrix + 7.09 # 3 # 7 # 53 # 61
NCAA NET # 8 # 35
LRMC # 15* # # 43* #
common opponents -16.00
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average + 2.88 73.4 69.7 60.7
scatter 5.63 1.4 4.3 10.1
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection still at 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 21 Michigan State 87 74 +5.35 +7.65
HOME #197 Tarleton State 88 62 +24.02 +1.98
HOME #220 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.18 +3.82
NEUT # 97 North Texas 71 59 +13.22 -1.22
NEUT # 56 Dayton 73 74 +10.41 -11.41
NEUT # 98 Iona College 96 83 +13.26 -0.26
AWAY # 67 St. John's 95 75 +8.22 +11.78
HOME #162 UTEP 78 52 +22.50 +3.50
HOME #163 Missouri 102 65 +22.51 +14.49
HOME #148 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +21.36 -13.36
HOME #114 Nevada 88 61 +18.34 +8.66
HOME #108 George Mason 76 67 +17.65 -8.65
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.13 +4.87
AWAY # 19 Texas Tech 67 75 +1.50 -9.50
HOME # 37 Iowa State 62 61 +11.21 -10.21
HOME # 42 West Virginia 85 59 +11.56 +14.44
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma +4.46 0.664
AWAY # 74 Kansas State +8.78 0.837
HOME # 19 Texas Tech +7.34 0.766
HOME # 9 Kentucky +4.52 0.671
AWAY # 37 Iowa State +5.37 0.699
HOME # 2 Baylor +2.67 0.608
AWAY # 15 Texas +0.91 0.542
HOME # 33 Oklahoma +10.30 0.836
HOME # 46 Oklahoma State +11.97 0.860
AWAY # 42 West Virginia +5.72 0.748
HOME # 74 Kansas State +14.62 0.949
AWAY # 2 Baylor -3.17 0.373
AWAY # 61 TCU +7.92 0.813
HOME # 61 TCU +13.76 0.939
HOME # 15 Texas +6.75 0.781
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #340 Northwestern State 77 59 +27.57 -9.57
HOME #321 UTSA 96 44 +25.29 +26.71
NEUT #153 East Carolina 79 74 +11.52 -6.52
NEUT #167 Indiana State 87 63 +12.36 +11.64
NEUT # 66 Utah State 70 73 +3.67 -6.67
HOME #354 Houston Baptist 57 40 +30.92 -13.92
AWAY # 81 Central Florida(UCF) 65 62 +1.84 +1.16
HOME # 31 Florida 74 67 +2.64 +4.36
HOME #128 Butler 62 66 +12.19 -16.19
NEUT # 32 Arkansas 88 66 +0.00 +22.00
HOME #217 UT Arlington 70 50 +17.70 +2.30
HOME #276 Alcorn State 72 48 +21.91 +2.09
HOME # 74 Kansas State 71 69 +7.24 -5.24
AWAY # 2 Baylor 74 84 -10.55 +0.55
HOME # 37 Iowa State 79 66 +3.83 +9.17
AWAY # 15 Texas 52 66 -6.47 -7.53
AWAY # 61 TCU 58 59 +0.54 -1.54
HOME # 4 Kansas -4.46 0.336
HOME # 2 Baylor -4.71 0.333
AWAY # 42 West Virginia -1.66 0.433
AWAY # 11 Auburn -8.31 0.231
HOME # 61 TCU +6.38 0.735
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma State -1.25 0.459
HOME # 19 Texas Tech -0.04 0.499
AWAY # 4 Kansas -10.30 0.164
HOME # 15 Texas -0.63 0.475
AWAY # 37 Iowa State -2.01 0.430
AWAY # 19 Texas Tech -5.88 0.300
HOME # 46 Oklahoma State +4.59 0.648
HOME # 42 West Virginia +4.18 0.664
AWAY # 74 Kansas State +1.40 0.555
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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