Big 12 projection, Round 5

Two consecutive losses at home did exactly what you'd expect it to do:  they dropped Baylor
off the top line in the projected standings.  Not only did the Bears lose out on projected
wins of 0.8 and 0.9, the revised ratings cost them another 0.6 of a projected win, so
Baylor's projected win total has dropped by 2.3 games in the last two games.  Meanwhile, a
brilliant second half by Kansas led to an above-expectation performance rivaling that of
the Missouri game for best of the season, so not only did the Jayhawks pick up 0.1 of a
projected win by defeating West Virginia, the revised ratings gave Kansas another 0.2 of
a projected win, thus opening up a nearly one-game lead in the conference race.  Indeed,
Kansas was the ONLY upper division team to actually win on Saturday, so it was the best
possible outcome for the Jayhawks.  The Mountaineers' loss cost them only 0.1 of a
projected win from the Kansas game specifically, and only another 0.1 of a projected win
from the revised ratings, but the big wins by Iowa State and Oklahoma State gave them
both enough projected wins to exceed West Virginia's projected win total, dropping the
Mountaineers all the way from sixth place to eighth place.  Meanwhile, Kansas State would
need a couple repeat performances like Saturday's to climb out of the bottom spot.  The
Big 12 is going to be a bloodbath; nobody can be taken lightly.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4     3  1  @OU  (Tu)   KU  by  4.3
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5     3  2  @WVU (Tu)   BU  by  6.0
# 19  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7     3  2   ISU (Tu)   TTU by  6.8
# 14  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6     3  2   KSU (Tu)   UT  by 10.8
# 32  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1     2  3   KU  (Tu)              
# 40  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0     2  3  @TTU (Tu)              
# 46  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9     2  3   TCU (We)   OSU by  4.7
# 43  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6     2  2   BU  (Tu)              
# 62  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7     2  1  @OSU (We)              
# 74  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5     1  4  @UT  (Tu)              

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 5, with Andy Dolphin earning
an honorable mention.  For the second consecutive round,  Dunkel pulled up the rear by a wide
margin.  Vegas and Greenfield share the season lead, with veteran Dunkel in last place.

[table too wide for easy display]

Road wins ( 7 out of 23)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
2 Baylor         ISU TCU                     0 Kansas                                         +1 KU 
1 Kansas         OSU                         0 Oklahoma                                       +1 TTU
1 Oklahoma State BU                          0 Texas                                          +1 UT 
1 TCU            KSU                         0 Texas Tech                                      0 BU
1 Texas          KSU                         0 West Virginia                                   0 OU 
1 Texas Tech     BU                          1 Iowa State     BU                               0 OSU
0 Iowa State                                 1 Oklahoma State KU                               0 TCU
0 Kansas State                               1 TCU            BU                               0 WVU          
0 Oklahoma                                   2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         -1 ISU
0 West Virginia                              2 Kansas State   UT  TCU                         -2 KSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +2.83    West Virginia     7.67
Baylor          +2.23    Texas             8.15
Kansas State    +1.25    Kansas State      8.50
Texas Tech      +1.24    TCU               8.51
Kansas          +1.12    Kansas            9.28
Oklahoma        +0.81    Baylor           10.16
TCU             +0.53    Texas Tech       10.76
Texas           +0.10    Iowa State       11.23
Oklahoma State  +0.05    Oklahoma         11.50
West Virginia   -0.87    Oklahoma State   12.64

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.67 +/- 0.55    Iowa State      +0.45 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      +0.38 +/- 0.57    Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    +0.37 +/- 0.47    Oklahoma        +0.06 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech      +0.11 +/- 0.55    Baylor           0.00 +/- 0.20
West Virginia    0.00 +/- 0.43    Texas Tech      -0.02 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        -0.15 +/- 0.59    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.32
Kansas          -0.20 +/- 0.52    Kansas          -0.14 +/- 0.34
Oklahoma State  -0.23 +/- 0.71    Texas           -0.17 +/- 0.14
Texas           -0.27 +/- 0.41    TCU             -0.19 +/- 0.24
Baylor          -0.76 +/- 0.48    West Virginia   -0.20 +/- 0.20

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          81.12   Texas           55.24   Kansas          148.19   Baylor          +18.12
Baylor          78.94   Texas Tech      59.35   Baylor          139.76   Texas           +14.41
Texas Tech      73.06   Iowa State      60.29   Oklahoma State  136.69   Kansas          +14.06
Oklahoma        71.82   Baylor          60.82   Oklahoma        134.53   Texas Tech      +13.71
TCU             70.29   Kansas State    61.81   TCU             133.43   Iowa State       +9.65
Iowa State      69.94   Oklahoma        62.71   Texas Tech      132.41   Oklahoma         +9.12
Oklahoma State  69.81   TCU             63.14   West Virginia   131.81   TCU              +7.14
Texas           69.65   West Virginia   63.69   Iowa State      130.24   Kansas State     +5.75
West Virginia   68.12   Oklahoma State  66.88   Kansas State    129.38   West Virginia    +4.44
Kansas State    67.56   Kansas          67.06   Texas           124.88   Oklahoma State   +2.94

Seven conference members are now in the Top 100 in Strength of Schedule, and the other three
are now at least in the Top 200.  Kansas has two tough road games, followed by two home games
against Top 20 opponents, another tough road game, and then a home game with Baylor, so the
Jayhawks' ranking should trend upward for a while now.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  78.60 ( 10) up 12
Kansas          77.27 ( 27) up  3
Baylor          75.93 ( 52) up  2
Oklahoma        75.69 ( 58) up 23
Kansas State    75.46 ( 64) up 26
Iowa State      75.30 ( 67) up 40
West Virginia   75.06 ( 71) up 49
TCU             72.45 (170) up 55
Texas Tech      72.44 (172) up 49
Texas           72.09 (193) up 74