predictions for West Virginia game

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asteroid
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2 years 10 months ago #28114 by asteroid

This tip is sufficiently early that to assemble this set of predictions
far enough in advance of the game to be useful to readers would have
meant getting up awfully early for a night owl in Hawaii.  So instead I
decided to stay up until all the predictions were in.  Except that it
took both Sagarin and Dunkel until around 5 a.m. to post, so as it is,
I'm not going to get a lot of sleep before the game.  Therefore, I'm
not going to write much commentary, and will simply let the readers
peruse the tables.

But I will go so far as to say that West Virginia is the conference's
most consistent team.  The Mountaineers have yet to play any game above
expectation by enough overcome a 10.8 point margin.  Kansas, however,
has played two games below expectation by more than 10.8 points.  The
Jayhawks are due for an above-expectation game.  That may depend on
whether Remy can play, and whether we have the Jekyll or Hyde version
of DMac.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      WVU     KU      Defensive Stats      WVU     KU
Points/Game         69.7    81.7     Opp Points/Game     61.3    66.8
Avg Score Margin    +8.3   +14.9     Opp Effective FG %  47.5    48.7
Assists/Game        11.1    16.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.9    10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.3    35.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.5    23.5
Effective FG %      49.1    56.6     Blocks/Game          5.5     4.5
Off Rebound %       30.5    33.8     Steals/Game          8.4     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.348   0.321     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.3    15.6
Turnover %          15.5    15.3

My Stats Comparison        KU             WVU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.67           -0.41    
inconsistency          8.87            6.92    
trend                 -0.66 ± 0.52    +0.38 ± 0.42
mental toughness      -0.17 ± 0.32    -0.03 ± 0.22
average total pts      148.47         131.00    

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Oklahoma State:

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
WVU +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU  +13 WVU at home ( +9 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Sean McNeil (guard)
most points        Taz Sherman (guard)
most rebounds      Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
most assists       Taz Sherman (guard)
most steals        Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Isaiah Cottrell (forward)
most turnovers     Taz Sherman (guard)
most fouls         Gabe Osabuohien (forward)

Reserve forward James Okonkwo is still recovering from a broken foot and isn't
expected to return to action until the end of the month.

                                                          13-2           13-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +10.40   72   62       82       #  5   # 32    # 33   #118
Sagarin Predictor      +10.81   73   62       91.3     #  5   # 32    # 37   #118 
Sagarin Golden Mean    + 9.91   72   62                #  3   # 32    # 30   #118 
Sagarin Recent Games   + 6.29   70   64                # 14   # 32    # 29   #118 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +10.05   72   62       81    
Massey                 + 7.00   74   67       77       #  9   # 19    # 28   # 51
Pomeroy                +10.25   78   68                # 10   # 35    # 39   #100
Greenfield             +11.50   77   66                # 11   # 21    # 34   # 48
Dunkel                 + 2.50   66   64                # 14           # 24                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.50   78   66                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 9.96   76   66       80.7     # 12   # 16    # 38   # 48
Real Time              +12.00   85   73       79.3     #  2   # 16    # 38   #116 
Seven Overtimes        + 7.00   73   66       62       #  1   #  6    # 41   # 17
DPPI                   +10.40   75.5 65       85.1     #  7   # 16    # 36   # 56 
ESPN BPI               +11.30                 84.8     # 11   # 47    # 34   # 83
Whitlock               +10.19                          #  7   # 15    # 35   # 41
Colley Matrix          + 6.88                          #  5   #  8    # 18   # 83
NCAA NET                                               # 10           # 37 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 17*  #   
common opponents       +13.00         
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 9.50   74.4 65.2     80.4
scatter                  2.58    4.5  3.0      8.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back down
to 25-6, with the TCU home game moved to the end of the schedule given its
currently unknown date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 20 Michigan State              87  74    +4.13    +8.87
HOME   #192 Tarleton State              88  62   +23.11    +2.89
HOME   #225 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.06    +3.94
NEUT   # 92 North Texas                 71  59   +12.31    -0.31
NEUT   # 71 Dayton                      73  74   +10.84   -11.84
NEUT   #102 Iona College                96  83   +13.30    -0.30
AWAY   # 68 St. John's                  95  75    +7.48   +12.52
HOME   #182 UTEP                        78  52   +22.76    +3.24
HOME   #173 Missouri                   102  65   +22.15   +14.85
HOME   #129 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +19.45   -11.45
HOME   #114 Nevada                      88  61   +17.70    +9.30
HOME   #106 George Mason                76  67   +16.78    -7.78
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State              74  63    +6.27    +4.73
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  67  75    +0.14    -8.14
HOME   # 44 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.48   -10.48
HOME   # 37 West Virginia                        +10.80             0.913
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +3.16             0.619
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                          +8.53             0.846
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                            +6.28             0.742
HOME   # 12 Kentucky                              +4.63             0.678
AWAY   # 44 Iowa State                            +5.34             0.698
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +1.75             0.579
AWAY   # 14 Texas                                 -0.06             0.497
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              +9.30             0.814
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State                       +12.41             0.881
AWAY   # 37 West Virginia                         +4.66             0.721
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                         +14.67             0.960
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -4.39             0.310
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   +7.18             0.796
HOME   # 62 TCU                                  +13.32             0.938
HOME   # 14 Texas                                 +6.08             0.764

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #125 Oakland-Mich.               60  53   +10.74    -3.74
HOME   #137 Pittsburgh                  74  59   +12.41    +2.59
NEUT   #263 Elon                        87  68   +17.19    +1.81
NEUT   # 49 Marquette                   71  82    +1.29   -12.29
NEUT   # 55 Clemson                     66  59    +1.89    +5.11
HOME   #196 Eastern Kentucky            80  77   +15.51   -12.51
HOME   #228 Bellarmine                  74  55   +17.55    +1.45
HOME   #269 Radford                     67  51   +20.52    -4.52
HOME   # 19 Connecticut                 56  53    -0.98    +3.98
HOME   #162 Kent State                  63  50   +14.03    -1.03
AWAY   # 47 UAB                         65  59    -2.15    +8.15
HOME   #251 Youngstown State            82  52   +19.36   +10.64
AWAY   # 14 Texas                       59  74    -7.79    -7.21
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                71  68    +6.94    -3.94
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State              70  60    +4.68    +5.32
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                               -10.80             0.087
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                -5.98             0.225
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                            -7.59             0.195
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              +1.57             0.565
AWAY   # 35 Arkansas                              -3.32             0.359
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                               -12.12             0.063
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                            -1.45             0.435
HOME   # 44 Iowa State                            +3.75             0.653
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State                        -1.46             0.441
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                          +0.80             0.543
HOME   #  5 Kansas                                -4.66             0.279
AWAY   # 44 Iowa State                            -2.39             0.401
HOME   # 14 Texas                                 -1.65             0.413
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              -4.57             0.318
HOME   # 62 TCU                                   +5.59             0.765
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   -0.55             0.472

The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk

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hairyhawk
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2 years 10 months ago #28116 by hairyhawk

I completely agree that KU is due for a game above expectations. The Hawks have not gotten many breaks. They got away with a goal tend against ISU and you could say that was the difference in the game. I would argue that there were several other calls that they did not get. I think the team plays better with Mr Martin available. Hopefully he will be back soon. I am typing this at half time and it is way too close of a game at this point.

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hairyhawk
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2 years 10 months ago #28118 by hairyhawk

Ask and ye shall receive. That was a much better second half.

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

2 years 10 months ago #28120 by HawkErrant

H2 was gorgeous!

Please, sir, I'd like some more!

Also today -- the road woes continue in the Big 12...

KSU 62 Tech 51 in Lil Apple
ISU 79 tu 70 in Ames

OU underway at TCU OU 25 -22 with 4:00 left in H1
OKS at BU at 4:00 PM CT

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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