predictions for Iowa State game

So, RealTime was the only prognosticator to get the outcome of the Texas Tech game
right.  Still doesn't change my mind about RealTime not being ready for Prime Time.

As you should recall, the projected conference record for Kansas was 14-4, even
though there was only one projected loss, namely at Waco.  That meant there were
three projected wins that would ultimately turn into losses.  The most likely
candidates for those other three losses are at Austin, the home game with Baylor,
and, bingo, at Lubbock.  That still doesn't make it a projected loss, but rather
one of the more likely "statistical losses".  So it's not terribly surprising
that Kansas lost the game, which probably explains why the rankings for Kansas
by the various computers haven't changed much, certainly not as much as in the
human polls, which are more strongly affected by the most recent loss.  Having
said that, it couldn't have been set up any better for Kansas having Tech without
their two leading scorers.  If we had separate ratings for the teams of players
that actually played the game, I suspect the margin for Kansas would have been
a few points greater, and then the game at Norman would have replaced it as the
third most likely "statistical loss".

But enough about the past.  What about the future?  All the prognosticators
have Kansas beating Iowa State.  The optimist is Dunkel, who has the Jayhawks
by 18.5 points.  The pessimist is the common opponents comparison.  Yes,
Iowa State beat the Red Raiders by 4, the team Kansas lost to by 8, a 12 point
differential.  But the Cyclones were at home, Kansas was on the road, and today
the Cyclones are on the road, only their second true road game of the season.
Sagarin's home court advantage is just 2.9 points, which if taken at face value
would reduce that 12 point difference to just 3.4 points, still favoring the
Cyclones.  However, also recall that the home court advantage has historically
been larger in the Big 12 than nationwide, though last season was a statistical
anomaly driven by mostly empty arenas.  I've normally used 4 points for the
home court advantage when looking at common opponents (one degree of separation),
and that would be enough to zero out the margin between Kansas and Iowa State.
With the advantage as large as 5.5 points, which we have seen in prior years,
suddenly Kansas becomes favored by 4.5 points, but for purposes of the average
margin calculation, I'll stick with the more pessimistic value of zero.

The most reliable prognosticators have it as a double-digit victory for Kansas,
though Sagarin's Recent Games and eigenvector analysis have it much closer.
The Recent Games margin makes sense; I haven't figured out what Sagarin is
doing with his eigenvectors.  Predictor is doing the best so far this season,
averaging a 6.7 point error, while Overall and Golden Mean are averaging 6.8
points in error, Recent Games is up at 8.0 points, and the newest addition
to his algorithms, the eigenvector analysis, is pulling up the rear at 10.6
points, the worst of the 19 predictions I've been tabulating this conference
season.  Right now, the gold standard is Vegas, who is averaging 6.0 points
in error, as is Greenfield, who almost always mimics Vegas.  Curiously, Dunkel
is also currently averaging a 6.0 point error; I doubt that will last.  Among
my tweaks to Sagarin Predictor, the one taking into account performance is
averaging just 6.5 points of error.  The tweak with the home court advantage
better suited for the Big 12 hasn't helped much so far, averaging 6.8 points
of error.  My trend analysis is averaging 8.0 points of error.  Expect all
of these average errors to get worse, particularly after one of those two-sigma
error games occurs.

Iowa State has played three games above expectation by enough to overcome a
12.8 point margin, all non-conference ganes when they were building their
glossly undefeated record and calling attention to their status as an upper
division conference team rather than the bottom feeder the media had them
painted as pre-season.  Out of 15 games, that's a 20 percent chance of winning
today.  Meanwhile, Kansas hasn't played ANY games below expectation by more
than 12.77 points, though the Dayton game comes close at 12.75 points.  But
just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean that it won't happen.  Still,
if you take the 20 and 0 and average them, Iowa State would have just a 10
percent chance of winning today, fairly consistent with the 11.1 percent
chance that the Sagarin Predictor ratings would suggest given each team's
inconsistency value, which is higher for the Cyclones than for the Jayhawks.
Iowa State does have positive trend and mental toughness ratings, while both
are negative for Kansas, though the only one that is statistically significant
is the Cyclones' mental toughness.  Taken at face value, those reduce the
margin for Kansas to just 6.2 points.

The two teams average 139.9 points per game, with Iowa State playing the
decidedly lower-scoring games, by about 20 points.  Interestingly, Sagarin
is calling for just 138.6 total points, a bit under the average; his previous
totals have been a bit over the average.

The average of the various prognostications is 9.4 points, with a scatter of
4.0 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      ISU     KU      Defensive Stats      ISU     KU
Points/Game         71.1    83.1     Opp Points/Game     58.4    67.2
Avg Score Margin   +12.7   +15.9     Opp Effective FG %  44.4    48.9
Assists/Game        14.8    16.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.5    10.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.9    35.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.1    23.8
Effective FG %      51.5    57.0     Blocks/Game          3.2     4.2
Off Rebound %       29.2    33.8     Steals/Game          9.5     7.5
FTA/FGA            0.322   0.318     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.2    15.9
Turnover %          17.9    14.8

My Stats Comparison        KU             ISU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.21           +2.85    
inconsistency          8.97           11.79    
trend                 -0.48 ± 0.60    +0.14 ± 0.73
mental toughness      -0.17 ± 0.35    +0.45 ± 0.20
average total pts      150.29         129.47    

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Texas Tech:

KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
ISU  +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU    0 ISU at home ( -4 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Izaiah Brockington (guard)
most points        Izaiah Brockington (guard)
most rebounds      Izaiah Brockington (guard)
most assists       Tyrese Hunter (guard)
most steals        Tyrese Hunter (guard)
most blocks        George Conditt IV (forward)
most turnovers     Tyrese Hunter (guard)
most fouls         George Conditt IV (forward)

Reserve guard Jaden Walker has missed the last three games due to an illness.
It hasn't been stated when he'll return to action.  He's second-last in terms
of minutes played per game, so his absence isn't a big deal for the Cyclones.

                                                          12-2           13-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +11.98   75   63       84       #  3   # 25    # 44   #197
Sagarin Predictor      +12.77   76   63       88.9     #  4   # 25    # 51   #197 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +10.83   75   64                #  3   # 25    # 37   #197 
Sagarin Recent Games   + 4.28   71   67                # 15   # 25    # 20   #197 
Sagarin Eigenvector    + 6.31   72   66       72    
Massey                 + 8.00   73   65       79       # 10   # 16    # 27   # 88
Pomeroy                +10.49   76   66                #  4   # 31    # 38   #212
Greenfield             +12.00   77   65                #  6   # 14    # 52   # 47
Dunkel                 +18.50   82   64                # 15           # 31                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.00   76.5 65.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     + 9.73   75   65       80.4     # 11   # 14    # 26   # 30
Real Time              +10.00   84   74       74.1     #  2   # 18    # 15   #184 
Seven Overtimes        + 6.00   73   67       55       #  1   # 10    # 27   #156
DPPI                   + 9.30   76   67       76.6     #  7   # 18    # 30   # 94 
ESPN BPI               +12.20                 86.4     # 10   # 41    # 41   # 64
Whitlock               + 8.74                          #  5   # 17    # 25   # 61
Colley Matrix          + 6.68                          #  7   # 16    # 22   #143
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 21 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #148*  #   
common opponents         0.00         
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 9.38   75.8 65.8     77.4
scatter                  3.96    3.5  2.7     10.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back down
to 25-6, with the TCU home game moved to the end of the schedule given its
currently unknown date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 19 Michigan State              87  74    +4.54    +8.46
HOME   #183 Tarleton State              88  62   +23.29    +2.71
HOME   #211 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +24.44    +4.56
NEUT   # 86 North Texas                 71  59   +12.55    -0.55
NEUT   # 74 Dayton                      73  74   +11.75   -12.75
NEUT   # 99 Iona College                96  83   +13.38    -0.38
AWAY   # 68 St. John's                  95  75    +8.49   +11.51
HOME   #165 UTEP                        78  52   +22.43    +3.57
HOME   #148 Missouri                   102  65   +21.29   +15.71
HOME   #132 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +19.87   -11.87
HOME   #112 Nevada                      88  61   +18.00    +9.00
HOME   #102 George Mason                76  67   +16.62    -7.62
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma State              74  63    +6.11    +4.89
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                  67  75    +2.34   -10.34
HOME   # 51 Iowa State                           +12.78             0.889
HOME   # 36 West Virginia                        +11.29             0.918
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +3.74             0.638
AWAY   # 78 Kansas State                          +9.22             0.860
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                            +8.06             0.795
HOME   # 11 Kentucky                              +4.99             0.691
AWAY   # 51 Iowa State                            +7.06             0.750
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +1.79             0.582
AWAY   # 18 Texas                                 +1.56             0.573
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              +9.46             0.813
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma State                       +11.83             0.866
AWAY   # 36 West Virginia                         +5.57             0.754
HOME   # 78 Kansas State                         +14.94             0.960
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -3.93             0.324
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   +8.14             0.819
HOME   # 18 Texas                                 +7.28             0.804
HOME   # 62 TCU                                  +13.86             0.940

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #299 Kennesaw State              84  73   +20.94    -9.94
HOME   #128 Oregon State                60  50    +9.44    +0.56
HOME   #325 Alabama State               68  60   +23.19   -15.19
HOME   #331 Grambling State             82  47   +23.70   +11.30
NEUT   # 22 Xavier-Ohio                 82  70    -4.93   +16.93
NEUT   # 33 Memphis                     78  59    -2.51   +21.51
HOME   #356 Ark.-Pine Bluff             83  64   +29.54   -10.54
AWAY   # 69 Creighton                   64  58    -1.32    +7.32
HOME   # 20 Iowa                        73  53    -2.52   +22.52
HOME   #273 Jackson State               47  37   +19.20    -9.20
HOME   #301 SE Louisiana                77  54   +21.00    +2.00
HOME   #351 Chicago State               79  48   +27.73    +3.27
HOME   #  2 Baylor                      72  77    -8.13    +3.13
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                  51  47    -1.86    +5.86
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                    66  79    -6.18    -6.82
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -12.78             0.111
HOME   # 18 Texas                                 -2.64             0.397
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                            -7.58             0.249
HOME   # 62 TCU                                   +3.94             0.647
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma State                        -3.81             0.375
HOME   #148 Missouri                             +11.37             0.836
HOME   #  4 Kansas                                -7.06             0.250
AWAY   # 18 Texas                                 -8.36             0.204
AWAY   # 36 West Virginia                         -4.35             0.328
HOME   # 78 Kansas State                          +5.02             0.690
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   -1.78             0.432
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              -0.46             0.485
HOME   # 36 West Virginia                         +1.37             0.556
AWAY   # 78 Kansas State                          -0.70             0.472
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma State                        +1.91             0.563
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                               -13.85             0.087