Big 12 projection, Round 3

Easy come, easy go.  Iowa State's ascendancy to seventh place didn't last long,
due to their road loss to Oklahoma, coupled with Oklahoma State's home upset over
Texas.  Meanwhile, West Virginia had to come from behind, at home no less, to
barely beat bottom-feeder Kansas State, so the Cowboys were able to leapfrog the
Mountaineers as well into sixth place.  Meanwhile, the Kansas road loss to Texas
Tech cost the Jayhawks not only that fractional win possibility, but ratings
points as well, moving Kansas a full game lower in projected wins and surrendering
first place to Baylor, who struggled on the road with TCU but ultimately pulled out
a comfortable win.  With rounding applied, Baylor now has a two-game lead in the
conference race.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8     3  0   TTU (Tu)   BU  by  9.0
#  4  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3     1  1   ISU (Tu)   KU  by 12.6
# 18  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6     2  1   OU  (Tu)   UT  by  5.0
# 23  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0     1  1  @BU  (Tu)              
# 31  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3     2  1  @UT  (Tu)              
# 45  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7     1  1  @WVU (Tu)              
# 36  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6     1  1   OSU (Tu)   WVU by  3.4
# 50  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9     1  2  @KU  (Tu)              
# 62  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6     0  1  @KSU (We)              
# 79  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2     0  3   TCU (We)   KSU by  0.6

Dunkel easily took honors for best prognostications in Round 3.  Sagarin's eigenvector
analysis pulled up the rear marginally over Seven Overtimes.  Vegas retained the season
lead.

[table too wide for easy display]

Three projected road wins for Round 3.  Only one happened, so we're right at the long-term
average of one in three.  No road wins projected for Round 4.

Road wins ( 4 out of 12)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
2 Baylor         ISU TCU                     0 Baylor                                         +2 BU
1 Kansas         OSU                         0 Kansas                                         +1 KU 
1 Texas          KSU                         0 Oklahoma                                       +1 UT 
0 Iowa State                                 0 Texas                                           0 OU 
0 Kansas State                               0 Texas Tech                                      0 TTU
0 Oklahoma                                   0 West Virginia                                   0 WVU
0 Oklahoma State                             1 Iowa State     BU                              -1 ISU
0 TCU                                        1 Kansas State   UT                              -1 KSU          
0 Texas Tech                                 1 Oklahoma State KU                              -1 OSU
0 West Virginia                              1 TCU            BU                              -1 TCU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +3.59    West Virginia     7.14
Iowa State      +2.83    Texas             8,01
Texas Tech      +1.31    Kansas State      8.05
Kansas          +1.21    Baylor            8.26
Kansas State    +1.12    TCU               8.87
Texas           +0.69    Kansas            8.96
Oklahoma        +0.55    Texas Tech       10.39
TCU             +0.35    Iowa State       11.68
Oklahoma State  +0.21    Oklahoma         12.05
West Virginia   -0.66    Oklahoma State   12.21

I don't like seeing Kansas near the bottom of both of these next two statistics.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.79 +/- 0.74    Iowa State      +0.45 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.28 +/- 0.55    Oklahoma        +0.16 +/- 0.29
West Virginia   +0.25 +/- 0.49    Baylor          +0.12 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      +0.14 +/- 0.72    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      +0.12 +/- 0.72    West Virginia   -0.07 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma        +0.03 +/- 0.75    Texas Tech      -0.08 +/- 0.21
Baylor          -0.11 +/- 0.51    Oklahoma State  -0.17 +/- 0.38
Texas           -0.22 +/- 0.49    Texas           -0.17 +/- 0.15
Kansas          -0.48 +/- 0.60    Kansas          -0.18 +/- 0.35
Oklahoma State  -0.50 +/- 0.93    TCU             -0.29 +/- 0.27

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          82.50   Texas           53.87   Kansas          150.29   Baylor          +21.73
Baylor          82.00   Texas Tech      59.29   Baylor          142.27   Texas           +16.00
Texas Tech      74.71   Iowa State      59.60   Oklahoma State  139.00   Texas Tech      +15.43
Oklahoma        73.80   Baylor          60.27   Oklahoma        136.80   Kansas          +14.71
TCU             72.08   Kansas State    62.43   TCU             136.17   Oklahoma        +10.80
Oklahoma State  71.77   West Virginia   62.43   Texas Tech      134.00   Iowa State      +10.27
Iowa State      69.87   Oklahoma        63.00   Kansas State    131.43   TCU              +8.00
Texas           69.87   TCU             64.08   West Virginia   131.07   Kansas State     +6.57
Kansas State    69.00   Oklahoma State  67.23   Iowa State      129.47   West Virginia    +6.21
West Virginia   68.64   Kansas          67.79   Texas           123.73   Oklahoma State   +4.54

One new addition to the Top 100 in Schedule Strength, with one fewer team mired in the 300s.
Playing on the road seems to help somewhat more than just playing a tough opponent; witness
Texas Tech still down at #334.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          76.94 ( 26)
Oklahoma State  75.64 ( 51)
Baylor          74.55 ( 88)
Kansas State    73.64 (121)
Oklahoma        73.55 (126)
West Virginia   73.50 (130)
Iowa State      72.23 (187)
TCU             70.60 (258)
Texas           69.32 (309)
Texas Tech      68.06 (334)