predictions for Texas Tech game

I'd really like to learn more about the strength of schedule algortihms that
the various computer raters used.  While there is universal agreement that
Texas Tech is a top tier team, there is considerable disagreement over the
strength of their schedule.  Sagarin has the Red Raiders in the bottom ten
(out of 358 Division I teams), while Greenfield and Dolphin have them in the
top forty.  Yeah, they've played SEVEN bottom tier teams, either at home or
on a neutral court, a couple of middle tier teams, but four top tier teams,
including Gonzaga and Tennessee, winning against the latter.  Meanwhile,
Kansas' toughest opponent, Michigan State, ranks below both Gonzaga and
Tennessee.  On the other hand, Kansas has avoided playing anybody in the
bottom tier.

Okay, so Tech has rung up a gawdy record against mostly inferior competition.
That makes them harder to evaluate.  However, Pomeroy has them as the #5
defensive team, having never allowed more than 74 points, and only two
opponents got into the 70s.  Meanwhile, they've held three opponents to
scores in the 40s, and four more to scores in the 50s.  Their offense,
however, has been all over the place, scoring as many as 96 and as few as
47 in their most recent outing at Hilton Colesium.  They will undoubtedly
try to control the tempo and keep things slow, hoping to negate some of
the Jayhawks' high-octane offense.  But will they have the players to
accomplish that task?  Tech had only five scholarship players in Ames due
to "health and safety protocols" (is that a way of saying COVID without
violating privacy concerns?) and had to play two walk-ons as two of the
starters fouled out.  None of the "Players to Watch" listed below played
in that game.  Will Tech be similarly depleted for today's game?  The
answer to that question has serious implications for the game prediction.
Their top two scorers were dealing with injuries, which could involve more
recovery time than simply waiting out a quarantine period.

By comparison, Kansas is only missing reserve guard Pettiford, still
recovering from an abdominal strain, although out of COVID quarantine.
Another good question is who will start at the five spot.  Self once again
seems to have pushed the right buttons and managed to get a superb performance
from McCormack.  Will Self reward that by returning him to the starting line-up,
or will Self not tinker with a successful strategy?

Tech has three double-digit above-expectation performances and five overall
out of thirteen games.  All five were by enough to overcome the slim margin
for Kansas in this game, so from that comparison alone, one could give Tech
a 38.5 percent chance of winning.  Meanwhile, Kansas has played three games
below expectation by enough to squander that slim margin for a 23.1 percent
chance of losing the game.  Those average to a 30.8 percent chance of a loss
for the Jayhawks.  Clearly, the odds are better for Kansas if Tech's bench
is still depleted.

The predictions all show single-digit margins for Kansas, with one
doubter:  RealTime favors Tech by 4 points (the huge home court advantage
he's been using rears its ugly head again).  Colley is the most optimistic
at a hair under 10 points, due to a relatively low ranking for Tech.

Once again, I find myself waiting on Sagarin.  So I'm going to post what I
have and plan to post an update shortly before tip-off.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TTU     KU      Defensive Stats      TTU     KU
Points/Game         75.8    84.3     Opp Points/Game     57.6    66.6
Avg Score Margin   +18.2   +17.7     Opp Effective FG %  44.9    48.5
Assists/Game        14.9    17.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.7    10.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.2    36.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.2    24.3
Effective FG %      53.8    57.1     Blocks/Game          2.8     4.3
Off Rebound %       36.4    34.7     Steals/Game          8.4     7.7
FTA/FGA            0.353   0.314     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.8    15.4
Turnover %          17.3    14.3

My Stats Comparison        KU             TTU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.17           +1.19    
inconsistency          8.76           10.35    
trend                 -0.19 ± 0.68    -0.24 ± 0.80
mental toughness      +0.07 ± 0.40    -0.19 ± 0.22
average total pts      150.92         133.38    

Common Opponents
================
None

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kevin McCullar (guard)
most points        Terrance Shannon Jr. (guard)
most rebounds      Kevin McCullar (guard)
most assists       Kevin McCullar (guard)
most steals        Mylik Wilson (guard)
most blocks        two-way tie
most turnovers     Terrance Shannon Jr. (guard)
most fouls         Kevin McCullar (guard)

Leading scorer Shannon has missed the last four games due to a back injury;
unknown when he'll be back.  Leading thief Wilson has been out recovering
from knee surgery and isn't expected back until mid-month.  Reserve guard
Ethan Duncan has been out for an unspecified injury, with a similarly
unspecified return date.  Yesterday it was announced that McCullar also has
an unspecified injury, with no indication whether he'll be able to play or
not.  Wow, Tech could be missing most of their A team.

                                                          12-1           10-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall                                        #  2   # 48    # 25   #350
Sagarin Predictor      + 3.66                 64.9     #  2   # 48    # 23   #350 
Sagarin Golden Mean                                    #  2   # 48    # 25   #350 
Sagarin Recent Games                                   #  3   # 48    # 40   #350 
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 + 1.00   70   69       53       #  8   # 30    # 27   #165
Pomeroy                + 1.85   71   69                #  4   # 57    # 20   #349
Greenfield             + 4.50   72   68                #  6   # 27    # 24   # 39
Dunkel                 + 0.50   73   73                # 13           # 22                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     + 4.50   72   68                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 0.62   71   70       52.2     #  9   # 23    # 22   # 37
Real Time              - 4.00   78   82       39.0     #  2   # 21    # 32   #321 
Seven Overtimes        + 5.00   74   69       73       #  1   # 11    # 76   #284
DPPI                   + 6.30   74   67       68.2     #  6   # 32    # 27   #238 
ESPN BPI               + 0.60                 52.3     #  9   # 97    # 20   #115
Whitlock               + 5.79                          #  5   # 26    # 40   #155
Colley Matrix          + 9.94                          #  3   # 17    # 75   #284
NCAA NET                                               #  7           # 25 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 16*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 3.10   72.8 70.6     56.3
scatter                  3.51    2.4  4.6     12.4

That Sagarin Predictor margin is outdated, based on the ratings after Wednesday's
games, but it shouldn't have changed by much.

The eigenvector analysis came in at almost 13 points, otherwise the Sagarin
predictions are about 0.2 points larger than expected from the ratings as of
a couple days ago.

                                                          12-1           10-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        + 4.16   73   69       65       #  3   # 46    # 25   #353
Sagarin Predictor      + 3.88   73   69       65.6     #  2   # 46    # 23   #353 
Sagarin Golden Mean    + 4.64   74   69                #  2   # 46    # 25   #353 
Sagarin Recent Games   + 5.73   74   68                #  3   # 46    # 40   #353 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +12.88   78   65       86    
Massey                 + 1.00   70   69       53       #  8   # 30    # 27   #165
Pomeroy                + 1.85   71   69                #  4   # 57    # 20   #349
Greenfield             + 4.50   72   68                #  6   # 27    # 24   # 39
Dunkel                 + 0.50   73   73                # 13           # 22                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     + 4.50   72   68                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 0.62   71   70       52.2     #  9   # 23    # 22   # 37
Real Time              - 4.00   78   82       39.0     #  2   # 21    # 32   #321 
Seven Overtimes        + 5.00   74   69       73       #  1   # 11    # 76   #284
DPPI                   + 6.30   74   67       68.2     #  6   # 32    # 27   #238 
ESPN BPI               + 0.60                 52.3     #  9   # 97    # 20   #115
Whitlock               + 5.79                          #  5   # 26    # 40   #155
Colley Matrix          + 9.94                          #  3   # 17    # 75   #284
NCAA NET                                               #  7           # 25 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 16*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 3.99   73.4 69.6     61.6
scatter                  3.88    2.3  4.0     14.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 26-5,
with the TCU home game moved to the end of the schedule given its currently
unknown date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 18 Michigan State              87  74    +5.25    +7.75
HOME   #197 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.45    +1.55
HOME   #192 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +24.27    +4.73
NEUT   # 81 North Texas                 71  59   +13.19    -1.19
NEUT   # 88 Dayton                      73  74   +13.57   -14.57
NEUT   # 99 Iona College                96  83   +14.41    -1.41
AWAY   # 65 St. John's                  95  75    +9.21   +10.79
HOME   #184 UTEP                        78  52   +24.01    +1.99
HOME   #154 Missouri                   102  65   +22.57   +14.43
HOME   #126 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +19.93   -11.93
HOME   #108 Nevada                      88  61   +18.15    +8.85
HOME   # 96 George Mason                76  67   +17.05    -8.05
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma State              74  63    +7.79    +3.21
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                            +3.88             0.656
HOME   # 49 Iowa State                           +13.24             0.900
HOME   # 37 West Virginia                        +11.72             0.925
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                              +5.50             0.697
AWAY   # 86 Kansas State                         +10.64             0.891
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                            +9.30             0.832
HOME   # 11 Kentucky                              +5.91             0.725
AWAY   # 49 Iowa State                            +7.82             0.775
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +2.97             0.636
AWAY   # 16 Texas                                 +1.79             0.589
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                             +10.92             0.846
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma State                       +13.21             0.899
AWAY   # 37 West Virginia                         +6.30             0.780
HOME   # 86 Kansas State                         +16.06             0.968
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -2.45             0.387
AWAY   # 59 TCU                                   +8.54             0.826
HOME   # 16 Texas                                 +7.21             0.816
HOME   # 59 TCU                                  +13.96             0.937

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #284 North Florida(UNF)          89  74   +24.09    -9.09
HOME   #330 Grambling State             88  62   +27.80    -1.80
HOME   #293 Prairie View A&M            84  49   +24.73   +10.27
NEUT   #350 Incarnate Word              84  62   +28.85    -6.85
HOME   #343 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           96  40   +29.65   +26.35
HOME   #323 Lamar                       89  57   +26.97    +5.03
AWAY   # 43 Providence                  68  72    +0.49    -4.49
NEUT   # 14 Tennessee                   57  52    -3.07    +8.07
HOME   #226 Arkansas State              75  62   +19.86    -6.86
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     55  69    -7.26    -6.74
HOME   #219 Eastern Washington          78  46   +19.25   +12.75
HOME   #327 Alabama State               75  53   +27.64    -5.64
AWAY   # 49 Iowa State                  47  51    +1.23    -5.23
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -3.88             0.344
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -9.04             0.172
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma State                        +6.62             0.723
AWAY   # 86 Kansas State                          +4.05             0.663
HOME   # 49 Iowa State                            +6.65             0.724
HOME   # 37 West Virginia                         +5.13             0.712
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                                -9.30             0.168
HOME   # 36 Mississippi State                     +4.54             0.663
HOME   # 16 Texas                                 +0.62             0.527
AWAY   # 37 West Virginia                         -0.29             0.487
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                              -1.09             0.462
HOME   # 59 TCU                                   +7.37             0.768
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                -3.62             0.352
AWAY   # 16 Texas                                 -4.80             0.298
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                              +4.33             0.647
AWAY   # 59 TCU                                   +1.95             0.577
HOME   # 86 Kansas State                          +9.47             0.837
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma State                        +1.20             0.543