Big 12 projection, Round 2

An above-expectation road win over Oklahoma State boosted the rating for Kansas
a bit more than Baylor's slightly below expectation home win over Oklahoma, so
Kansas has taken the lead in the projected conference standings by 0.01 win,
rounding up to 14.4 wins, while Baylor rounded down to 14.3 wins.  Iowa State's
home win over Texas Tech in what was expected to be a toss-up game, plus their
above-expectation performance against Baylor was enough for the Cyclones to climb
a spot in the projected standings.  No other changes.

The top three teams are all on the road this weekend and are projected to win,
with Kansas and Texas arguably having the more difficult games, so wins by all
three would mean that Kansas and Texas would gain more fractional wins than Baylor.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4     1  0  @TTU (Sa)   KU  by  3.7  proj. road win
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3     2  0  @TCU (Sa)   BU  by  8.0  proj. road win
# 16  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7     2  0  @OSU (Sa)   UT  by  3.2  proj. road win
# 23  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1     0  1   KU  (Sa)
# 33  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6     1  1   ISU (Sa)   OU  by  5.3
# 37  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4     0  1   KSU (Sa)   WVU by  7.2
# 48  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2     1  1  @OU  (Sa) 
# 45  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8     0  1   UT  (Sa) 
# 58  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2     0  0   BU  (Sa) 
# 84  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3     0  2  @WVU (Sa) 

Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 2 and took the season lead as well.
RealTime is bringing up the rear.  My trend analysis did really well except for the Texas
win, for which it generated the worst prediction.

(Table too wide for easy display here.)

Three projected road wins for Round 3.  If they all come to pass, half of the 12 games played
through Saturday would be road wins.

Road wins ( 3 out of  7)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
1 Baylor         ISU                         0 Baylor                                         +1 BU
1 Kansas         OSU                         0 Kansas                                         +1 KU 
1 Texas          KSU                         0 Oklahoma                                       +1 UT
0 Iowa State                                 0 TCU                                             0 OU 
0 Kansas State                               0 Texas                                           0 TCU
0 Oklahoma                                   0 Texas Tech                                      0 TTU
0 Oklahoma State                             0 West Virginia                                   0 WVU
0 TCU                                        1 Iowa State     BU                              -1 ISU          
0 Texas Tech                                 1 Kansas State   UT                              -1 KSU
0 West Virginia                              1 Oklahoma State KU                              -1 OSU

Eight of the ten Big 12 teams are underrated, and yet the conference sits atop Sagarin's
conference ratings, with the Big Ten second and the SEC a distant third.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +4.04    Texas             7,25
Iowa State      +3.27    West Virginia     7.56
Kansas State    +1.45    Baylor            8.43
Texas Tech      +1.19    Kansas State      8.60
Kansas          +1.17    Kansas            8.76
Texas           +1.11    TCU               9.51
Oklahoma        +0.89    Texas Tech       10.35
TCU             +0.59    Iowa State       11.76
Oklahoma State  -0.36    Oklahoma State   11.82
West Virginia   -0.49    Oklahoma         12.38

Somewhat surprising is the large values on the trend uncertainties, pretty much across
the board.  Maybe my memory of last season is failing me.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.21 +/- 0.87    Iowa State      +0.56 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   +0.51 +/- 0.56    Baylor          +0.12 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      +0.48 +/- 0.80    Oklahoma        +0.12 +/- 0.30
Kansas State    +0.30 +/- 0.66    Kansas          +0.07 +/- 0.40
Texas           +0.18 +/- 0.50    Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.19
Baylor          -0.12 +/- 0.58    West Virginia   -0.05 +/- 0.25
Kansas          -0.19 +/- 0.68    Texas           -0.10 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech      -0.24 +/- 0.80    Texas Tech      -0.19 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.26 +/- 0.85    TCU             -0.30 +/- 0.36
Oklahoma State  -1.29 +/- 0.95    Oklahoma State  -0.34 +/- 0.37

Holding Oklahoma State to 63 points, with the Cowboys allowing 74 points, meant that the
two teams swapped places at the bottom of the Average scoring defense statistic.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          83.54   Texas           53.29   Kansas          150.92   Baylor          +22.14
Baylor          82.29   Iowa State      58.36   Baylor          142.43   Texas           +17.79
Texas Tech      74.85   Texas Tech      58.54   Oklahoma State  141.00   Texas Tech      +16.31
Oklahoma        73.57   Baylor          60.14   Oklahoma        136.21   Kansas          +16.15
TCU             73.00   West Virginia   61.85   TCU             135.82   Iowa State      +11.64
Oklahoma State  72.58   Kansas State    61.92   Texas Tech      133.38   Oklahoma        +10.93
Texas           71.07   Oklahoma        62.64   Kansas State    130.85   TCU             +10.18
Iowa State      70.00   TCU             62.82   West Virginia   130.46   Kansas State     +7.00
Kansas State    68.92   Kansas          67.38   Iowa State      128.36   West Virginia    +6.77
West Virginia   68.62   Oklahoma State  68.42   Texas           124.36   Oklahoma State   +4.17

West Virginia's strength of schedule ranking slipped a notch, but otherwise the conference
saw some healthy gains, which should continue as more and more conference games get played.
The mid-majors who padded their strengths of schedule by playing Power Six opponents in the
early part of the season are now playing each other and seeing their strengths of schedule
decline, while Power Six teams are now playing each other and seeing their strengths of
schedule rise.  The big question is, how long will it take for all Big 12 members to be in
the Top 100?  We've still got three members ranked in the 300s.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          75.98 ( 53)
Oklahoma State  74.77 ( 82)
Baylor          73.31 (144)
West Virginia   73.19 (150)
Oklahoma        73.00 (162)
Kansas State    72.20 (192)
Iowa State      70.34 (276)
TCU             69.56 (302)
Texas           68.43 (326)
Texas Tech      66.71 (348)