predictions for Oklahoma State game

Oklahoma State did not play on Saturday due to COVID protocol within its program.
The postponement was announced on December 27, so a game on January 4 would be
eight days later, more than the five day quarantine now being recommended by the
CDC, so I assume that is the reason why the Kansas game was not also postponed.
However, it's always possible that Jayhawks will test positive (Pettiford already
has, but isolated before spreading it to teammates, based on their negative tests;
still, I worry about negative tests meaning only that the virus hasn't had enough
time to replicate to detectable levels, so the status of the rest of the team could
change at any time).

The Cowboys have played 11 games, but above expectation in only four of them, and
by enough to overcome the predicted margin for today's game only twice, corresponding
to an 18.2 percent chance of beating the Jayhawks.  Meanwhile, Kansas has played
three games below expectation by enough to squander their 6.7 point margin, according
to the Sagarin Predictor ratings, one of them being the most recent game against
George Mason.  Out of 12 games, that corresponds to a 25 percent chance of losing to
the Cowboys.  Those two average to 21.6 percent, somewhat less than the 26.8 percent
chance of losing indicated by the ratings and inconsistencies.

Speaking of inconsistency, Oklahoma State is more inconsistent than the national
average, and comparable to George Mason.  Kansas is close to average in inconsistency.

Looking at the various prognostications, I have to shake my head at Dunkel, who has
been at this business the longest, so he should have his act together, but for the
second game in a row, he's posted a ridiculous margin in favor of Kansas, namely
66.5 points.  Who knows how long it will be before he fixes the error.  Meanwhile,
RealTime has found yet another way to demonstrate that he's not ready for PrimeTime.
The web page where he shows the entire schedule for Kansas has today's game as a
one-point victory for Kansas, 81 to 80, but if you click on the link for this
specific game, it shows Kansas as a one-point loser, 79 to 80.  Most of the
predictions fall in the 5 to 10 point range, with Sagarin's eigenvector analysis
being the most favorable at 13.3 points (not counting Dunkel's erroneous posting).
The most pessimistic is Massey's 3 point margin (not counting RealTime's inconsistent
margin).  The average (not including Dunkel) is 6.2 points.

Sagarin is calling for almost 152 total points, while Vegas has it at 148 points.
Both are higher than the average of the two teams' scoring totals of 146.7 points.
The Cowboys haven't played in a while, so they could be rusty.  I'd take the under
again.

The Cowboys do have a negative trend of some statistical significance.  Taken at
face value, the trends would increase the margin for Kansas to 10.9 points.
However, historically Kansas hasn't played particularly well in Stillwater, which
argues for a margin in the single digits.  It will be interesting to see what the
effect is of starting Lightfoot instead of McCormack.  Another issue is the status
of Remy Martin's knee.  His absence against George Mason may have been responsible
for the below-expectation performance.  No word as of this writing whether he'll
be able to play or not.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OSU     KU      Defensive Stats      OSU     KU
Points/Game         74.9    85.2     Opp Points/Game     66.5    66.9
Avg Score Margin    +8.5   +18.3     Opp Effective FG %  45.5    49.5
Assists/Game        13.9    17.2     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.1    10.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.5    35.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.5    23.7
Effective FG %      50.2    57.7     Blocks/Game          6.3     4.3
Off Rebound %       33.8    34.0     Steals/Game         10.8     7.9
FTA/FGA            0.385   0.325     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.8    15.6
Turnover %          19.0    13.9

My Stats Comparison        KU             OSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.21           -0.46    
inconsistency          9.16           12.34    
trend                 -0.37 ± 0.79    -1.50 ± 1.13
mental toughness      +0.07 ± 0.45    -0.39 ± 0.45
average total pts      152.08         141.36    

Common Opponents
================
None

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points        Avery Anderson III (guard)
most rebounds      Moussa Cisse (forward)
most assists       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals        Bryce Williams (guard)
most blocks        two-way tie
most turnovers     Avery Anderson III (guard)
most fouls         Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (forward)

Guard Chris Harris Jr. is still recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL.

                                                          11-1            7-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        + 7.20   79   72       74       #  3   # 76    # 46   #135
Sagarin Predictor      + 6.72   79   72       73.2     #  2   # 76    # 43   #135 
Sagarin Golden Mean    + 8.01   80   72                #  3   # 76    # 53   #135 
Sagarin Recent Games   + 9.85   81   71                #  3   # 76    # 93   #135 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +13.30   82   69       86    
Massey                 + 3.00   75   72       57       #  8   # 40    # 44   # 48
Pomeroy                + 6.94   75   69                #  4   # 92    # 52   #140
Greenfield             + 6.50   76   70                #  6   # 30    # 36   # 49
Dunkel                 +  .                            # 16           # 49                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     + 6.50   77   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 5.60   77   71       68.3     # 10   # 30    # 59   # 54
Real Time              - 1.00   79   80       48.1     #  2   # 31    # 75   # 50 
Seven Overtimes        + 7.00   77   70       76       #  1   # 16    # 60   # 54
DPPI                   +10.40   78   68       80.9     #  5   # 34    # 58   # 73 
ESPN BPI               + 5.00                 67.5     #  9   #128    # 52   #127
Whitlock               + 7.94                          #  4   # 26    # 66   # 29
Colley Matrix          + 8.16                          #  4   # 23    # 74   # 35
NCAA NET                                               #  8           # 73 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 26*  #   
common opponents       +  .       
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 6.17   78.1 71.3     70.1
scatter                  3.72    2.2  2.9     11.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 26-5,
with the TCU home game moved to the end of the schedule given its currently
unknown date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 16 Michigan State              87  74    +4.60    +8.40
HOME   #188 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.22    +1.78
HOME   #193 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +24.30    +4.70
NEUT   # 74 North Texas                 71  59   +12.56    -0.56
NEUT   # 85 Dayton                      73  74   +13.20   -14.20
NEUT   #100 Iona College                96  83   +14.22    -1.22
AWAY   # 67 St. John's                  95  75    +8.81   +11.19
HOME   #173 UTEP                        78  52   +23.53    +2.47
HOME   #161 Missouri                   102  65   +22.71   +14.29
HOME   #135 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +20.94   -12.94
HOME   #107 Nevada                      88  61   +18.40    +8.60
HOME   # 97 George Mason                76  67   +17.05    -8.05
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma State                        +6.72             0.732
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            +2.87             0.614
HOME   # 50 Iowa State                           +13.61             0.894
HOME   # 39 West Virginia                        +11.92             0.921
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              +4.89             0.669
AWAY   # 73 Kansas State                          +9.41             0.854
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            +9.03             0.818
HOME   #  9 Kentucky                              +5.82             0.717
AWAY   # 50 Iowa State                            +7.45             0.753
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +3.32             0.646
AWAY   # 17 Texas                                 +1.60             0.577
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                             +11.05             0.838
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma State                       +12.88             0.882
AWAY   # 39 West Virginia                         +5.76             0.753
HOME   # 73 Kansas State                         +15.57             0.959
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -2.84             0.374
AWAY   # 56 TCU                                   +7.96             0.803
HOME   # 17 Texas                                 +7.76             0.826
HOME   # 56 TCU                                  +14.12             0.935

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #221 UT Arlington                88  45   +16.41   +26.59
HOME   #127 Oakland-Mich.               55  56   +10.30   -11.30
HOME   #297 Prairie View A&M            72  59   +21.33    -8.33
HOME   #228 UMass Lowell                80  58   +16.78    +5.22
NEUT   #112 NC State                    74  68    +5.82    +0.18
HOME   #175 College of Charleston       96  66   +13.77   +16.23
AWAY   #130 Oral Roberts                78  77    +4.37    -3.37
HOME   # 70 Wichita State               51  60    +5.65   -14.65
HOME   # 22 Xavier-Ohio                 71  77    -0.94    -5.06
HOME   #172 Cleveland State             98  93   +13.63    -8.63
NEUT   #  5 Houston                     61  72    -9.09    -1.91
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -6.72             0.268
HOME   # 17 Texas                                 -2.04             0.420
AWAY   # 39 West Virginia                         -4.04             0.347
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            -6.93             0.274
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                               -12.64             0.117
HOME   # 56 TCU                                   +4.32             0.653
AWAY   # 17 Texas                                 -8.20             0.209
HOME   # 50 Iowa State                            +3.81             0.621
AWAY   # 27 Florida                               -6.32             0.294
AWAY   # 73 Kansas State                          -0.39             0.485
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                              +1.25             0.539
AWAY   # 56 TCU                                   -1.84             0.434
HOME   # 39 West Virginia                         +2.12             0.582
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -12.88             0.118
HOME   # 73 Kansas State                          +5.77             0.706
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                -6.48             0.271
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              -4.91             0.349
AWAY   # 50 Iowa State                            -2.35             0.425
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            -0.77             0.473

From an erroneous 66.5 point margin all the way down to a 2.5 point margin,
courtesy of Dunkel.  But the update also caused me to notice that the common
opponent field wasn't fully blank, so it was being read in as a zero, thus lowering
the average.  It's now at 6.7 points.

                                                          11-1            7-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        + 7.20   79   72       74       #  3   # 76    # 46   #135
Sagarin Predictor      + 6.72   79   72       73.2     #  2   # 76    # 43   #135 
Sagarin Golden Mean    + 8.01   80   72                #  3   # 76    # 53   #135 
Sagarin Recent Games   + 9.85   81   71                #  3   # 76    # 93   #135 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +13.30   82   69       86    
Massey                 + 3.00   75   72       57       #  8   # 40    # 44   # 48
Pomeroy                + 6.94   75   69                #  4   # 92    # 52   #140
Greenfield             + 6.50   76   70                #  6   # 30    # 36   # 49
Dunkel                 + 2.50   76   74                # 16           # 49                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     + 6.50   77   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive     + 5.60   77   71       68.3     # 10   # 30    # 59   # 54
Real Time              - 1.00   79   80       48.1     #  2   # 31    # 75   # 50 
Seven Overtimes        + 7.00   77   70       76       #  1   # 16    # 60   # 54
DPPI                   +10.40   78   68       80.9     #  5   # 34    # 58   # 73 
ESPN BPI               + 5.00                 67.5     #  9   #128    # 52   #127
Whitlock               + 7.94                          #  4   # 26    # 66   # 29
Colley Matrix          + 8.16                          #  4   # 23    # 74   # 35
NCAA NET                                               #  8           # 73 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 26*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                + 6.68   77.9 71.5     70.1
scatter                  3.24    2.2  2.9     11.7