Big 12 projection, Round 1

Four teams did not play a conference game in Round 1, so the changes to their
projected win totals are due solely to the changes in the ratings.  Texas was
the biggest gainer, while West Virginia was the biggest loser due to the final
margin of their game being much larger than expected.  Then again, West Virginia
was missing three players due to COVID protocol, including their leading scorer,
though the other two are reserves, not starters.  But the Mountaineers were
projected to lose the road game at Texas anyway, so the effect of the virus on
the conference record might well have been zero, even though it had an oversized
effect on their Sagarin Predictor rating.  Other than Kansas, who had a
below-expectation non-conference game that caused their rating to slip just
enough to reduce the projected conference win total by 0.2 games, the other
seven teams stayed within 0.1 win of their initial projection.
             
We already have one postponement in Round 2, involving TCU again.  I don't know
whether the quarantine time has been reduced to just five days for college
basketball players, but it seems likely that postponements for teams will
occur in pairs of games.  It used to be the case that there were 19 rounds in
which to play 18 games, so there was space in which to reschedule a game, but
it's beginning to look like the Big 12 will need at least 20 rounds to play
a full slate of conference games.  Whether they do that by playing three games
a week or by pressuring the NCAA to delay the postseason by a week, who knows?

                      Init.  Rd. 1
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1     1  0   OU  (Tu)   BU  by 10.9
#  2  Kansas          14.0   13.8     0  0  @OSU (Tu)   KU  by  7.1
# 17  Texas           10.6   11.2     1  0  @KSU (Tu)   UT  by  5.0
# 24  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8     0  0  @ISU (We)   TTU by  1.9
# 33  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8     1  0  @BU  (Tu)   OU  by  8.3
# 39  West Virginia    7.9    7.4     0  1  @TCU (Mo)   postponed  
# 43  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3     0  0   KU  (Tu)              
# 50  Iowa State       6.7    6.6     0  1   TTU (We)              
# 56  TCU              6.2    6.2     0  0   WVU (Mo)   postponed  
# 72  Kansas State     4.9    4.8     0  1   UT  (Tu)              

The BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 1, beating out Andy Dolphin by 0.1 point per game.
Seven Overtimes and Sagarin's eigenvector analysis pulled up the rear.

The long-term average is one road win out of every three games.  We're bang on that pace.

Road wins ( 1 out of  3)                     Home losses                                           RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- -------
1 Baylor         ISU                         0 Baylor                                             +1 BU
0 Iowa State                                 0 Kansas                                              0 KU 
0 Kansas                                     0 Kansas State                                        0 KSU
0 Kansas State                               0 Oklahoma                                            0 OU 
0 Oklahoma                                   0 Oklahoma State                                      0 OSU
0 Oklahoma State                             0 TCU                                                 0 TCU
0 TCU                                        0 Texas                                               0 UT
0 Texas                                      0 Texas Tech                                          0 TTU          
0 Texas Tech                                 0 West Virginia                                       0 WVU
0 West Virginia                              1 Iowa State     BU                                  -1 ISU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +4.29    Texas             7,23
Iowa State      +3.48    West Virginia     7.62
Texas Tech      +1.43    Baylor            8.47
Kansas State    +1.38    Kansas State      8.66
Kansas          +1.15    Kansas            9.23
Texas           +0.99    TCU               9.52
Oklahoma        +0.93    Texas Tech       10.64
TCU             +0.53    Iowa State       12.30
Oklahoma State  -0.43    Oklahoma State   12.36
West Virginia   -0.45    Oklahoma         12.88

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.23 +/- 0.86    Iowa State      +0.59 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.74 +/- 0.72    Oklahoma        +0.20 +/- 0.37
Iowa State      +0.55 +/- 0.94    Baylor          +0.14 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   +0.54 +/- 0.57    Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.21
Baylor          +0.04 +/- 0.66    Kansas          +0.07 +/- 0.46
Texas           +0.03 +/- 0.56    West Virginia   -0.06 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech      +0.01 +/- 0.93    Texas Tech      -0.13 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma        -0.29 +/- 0.99    Texas           -0.15 +/- 0.15
Kansas          -0.36 +/- 0.80    TCU             -0.28 +/- 0.36
Oklahoma State  -1.49 +/- 1.14    Oklahoma State  -0.38 +/- 0.45

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          84.17   Texas           53.15   Kansas          152.08   Baylor          +23.38
Baylor          82.31   Baylor          58.92   Oklahoma State  141.36   Texas           +17.85
Texas Tech      77.00   Iowa State      59.08   Baylor          141.23   Texas Tech      +17.67
Oklahoma State  73.64   Texas Tech      59.33   Texas Tech      136.33   Kansas          +16.25
Oklahoma        73.38   Kansas State    61.08   TCU             135.82   Iowa State      +12.54
TCU             73.00   Oklahoma        61.15   Oklahoma        134.54   Oklahoma        +12.23
Iowa State      71.62   West Virginia   61.85   Kansas State    131.17   TCU             +10.18
Texas           71.00   TCU             62.82   Iowa State      130.69   Kansas State     +9.00
Kansas State    70.08   Oklahoma State  67.73   West Virginia   130.46   West Virginia    +6.77
West Virginia   68.62   Kansas          67.92   Texas           124.15   Oklahoma State   +5.91

The beginning of conference play started the upward climb in strength of schedule.  It will be
interesting to see how long it takes for everyone to be in the top 100.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          75.07 ( 78)
Oklahoma State  73.52 (133)
West Virginia   73.11 (149)
Baylor          71.99 (199)
Oklahoma        71.66 (218)
Kansas State    70.18 (274)
TCU             69.43 (302)
Iowa State      68.85 (313)
Texas           66.95 (348)
Texas Tech      65.14 (356)