initial Big 12 projection

Was supposed to be a clean start to the conference season, but two
postponements in Round 1 means it won't be.  Even the first game of
Round 2, Monday's West Virginia at TCU game, has been postponed.
Using the Sagarin Predictor ratings complete through yesterday's
games, here is the initial Big 12 projection:

                      Init.
Pred                  Proj.   Conf
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  -------------- ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  3  Baylor          14.0     0  0  @ISU (Sa)   BU  by  8.1
#  2  Kansas          14.0     0  0   GM  (Sa)   KU  by 18.3
# 20  Texas           10.6     0  0   WVU (Sa)   UT  by  6.5
# 24  Texas Tech       9.7     0  0   OSU (Sa)   postponed
# 31  Oklahoma         8.7     0  0   KSU (Sa)   OU  by  8.3
# 36  West Virginia    7.9     0  0  @UT  (Sa)
# 42  Oklahoma State   7.3     0  0  @TT  (Sa)   postponed
# 53  Iowa State       6.7     0  0   BU  (Sa)
# 57  TCU              6.2     0  0   WVU (Mo)   postponed
# 81  Kansas State     4.9     0  0  @OU  (Sa)

These statistics are skewed by the respective non-conference schedules each team has played.
With just 358 Division I teams, seeing Texas and Texas Tech in the bottom four in strength
of schedule means their lofty scoring margins were built against weak competition.  That
Kansas is scoring the most points against the conference's toughest schedule is noteworthy,
and it probably also explains why the Jayhawks are allowing the most points among conference
teams.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +4.53    Texas             7,37
Iowa State      +3.79    West Virginia     7.58
Kansas          +1.72    Baylor            8.59
Kansas State    +1.51    Kansas State      8.93
Texas Tech      +1.51    Kansas            9.17
Oklahoma        +1.25    TCU               9.55
Texas           +0.90    Texas Tech       10.90
TCU             +0.61    Oklahoma State   12.20
West Virginia   -0.29    Iowa State       12.71
Oklahoma State  -0.36    Oklahoma         13.29

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.25 +/- 0.87    Iowa State      +0.72 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   +0.98 +/- 0.59    Oklahoma        +0.23 +/- 0.39
Iowa State      +0.72 +/- 1.09    Baylor          +0.19 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    +0.70 +/- 0.87    West Virginia   +0.09 +/- 0.30
Baylor          +0.35 +/- 0.75    Kansas State    +0.05 +/- 0.23
Kansas          +0.03 +/- 0.92    Kansas          +0.04 +/- 0.47
Texas Tech      -0.04 +/- 0.96    Texas Tech      -0.13 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma        -0.07 +/- 1.17    Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.16
Texas           -0.25 +/- 0.64    TCU             -0.29 +/- 0.36
Oklahoma State  -1.45 +/- 1.13    Oklahoma State  -0.40 +/- 0.44

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          85.09   Texas           52.50   Kansas          152.91   Baylor          +24.58
Baylor          82.58   Iowa State      57.42   Oklahoma State  141.36   Texas           +18.42
Texas Tech      77.00   Baylor          58.00   Baylor          140.58   Texas Tech      +17.67
Oklahoma        73.75   Texas Tech      59.33   Texas Tech      136.33   Kansas          +17.27
Oklahoma State  73.64   Oklahoma        60.33   TCU             135.82   Iowa State      +14.33
TCU             73.00   Kansas State    60.36   Oklahoma        134.08   Oklahoma        +13.42
Iowa State      71.75   West Virginia   61.00   Kansas State    130.36   TCU             +10.18
Texas           70.92   TCU             62.82   West Virginia   130.25   Kansas State     +9.64
Kansas State    70.00   Oklahoma State  67.73   Iowa State      129.17   West Virginia    +8.25
West Virginia   69.25   Kansas          67.82   Texas           123.42   Oklahoma State   +5.91

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          75.17 ( 76)
Oklahoma State  73.56 (128)
West Virginia   71.93 (198)
Oklahoma        71.06 (237)
Baylor          70.18 (273)
TCU             69.40 (300)
Kansas State    68.36 (320)
Iowa State      66.78 (344)
Texas           65.43 (355)
Texas Tech      64.99 (356)