predictions for George Mason game

George Mason opened the season on a four-game winning streak, playing above
expectation in all four games.  They followed that with a five-game losing
streak, playing below expectation in all five games.  Lately they're on a
three-game winning streak, playing above expectation in all three games.
Streaky, but not as inconsistent as Nevada.

Curiously, these two last-minute rescheduled non-conference games produce
the first common opponent of the season.  Both Kansas and George Mason have
played Nevada.  Kansas handled Nevada by 27 points at home, while Nevada
handled George Mason by 19 on a neutral court.  That makes Kansas a 46 point
favorite.  Then again, Kansas played 9 points above expectation against
Nevada, while George Mason played 19 points below expectation against Nevada,
so 28 points of that 46 point margin is due to inconsistency.  Still, Kansas
would be favored by 18 points based on the single common opponent, which is
right in line with the other prognostications.

Trend and mental toughness ratings for Kansas are effectively nil, but not
statistically significant.  George Mason's negative trend has some
significance to it, while the negative mental toughness rating is of
weak significance.  Both teams are underrated between 1 and 2 points.

George Mason has scored as many as 90 points, and they've allowed as many as
88 points, but they've been averaging 138 total points.  Averaged with the
Jayhawks' total points average, we'd be looking at about 145 total points.
Sagarin has it closer to 149 points.  I'm leaning toward the under.

As usual, I'm waiting for Dunkel to post his predictions.  I'll try to post
an update after some sleep.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      GM      KU      Defensive Stats      GM      KU
Points/Game         72.8    86.0     Opp Points/Game     65.4    66.9
Avg Score Margin    +7.3   +19.1     Opp Effective FG %  48.6    49.0
Assists/Game        14.4    17.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.7    10.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.9    35.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.5    23.9
Effective FG %      54.5    58.3     Blocks/Game          3.7     4.4
Off Rebound %       26.4    34.6     Steals/Game          6.0     7.9
FTA/FGA            0.286   0.332     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.3    15.6
Turnover %          16.2    14.1

My Stats Comparison        KU             GM 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.72           +1.42    
inconsistency          9.17           12.24    
trend                 +0.03 ± 0.92    -1.29 ± 0.99
mental toughness      +0.04 ± 0.47    -0.45 ± 0.48
average total pts      152.91         138.17    

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Nevada, courtesy of the Harvard cancellation.

KU  +27 Nev at home (+23 neutral court)
GM  -19 Nev neutral (-19 neutral court)
KU  +46 GM  at home (+42 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       D'Shawn Schwartz (guard)
most points        Josh Oduro (forward)
most rebounds      Davonte Gaines (guard)
most assists       Xavier Johnson (guard)
most steals        Xavier Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Josh Oduro (forward)
most turnovers     De'Von Cooper (guard)
most fouls         two-way tie

                                                          10-1            7-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      George Mason
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +18.89   84   65       92       #  3   # 76    #110   #212
Sagarin Predictor      +18.28   84   65       95.5     #  2   # 76    #103   #212 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +20.62   85   64                #  2   # 76    #125   #212 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.13   84   65                #  3   # 76    #129   #212 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +15.14   82   67       89    
Massey                 +14.00   79   65       91       #  9   # 39    #116   #122
Pomeroy                +19.64   81   61                #  4   # 86    #129   #230
Greenfield             +19.00   82   63                #  6   # 30    #124   #135
Dunkel                                                 #              #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                               
Dolphin Predictive     +18.49   84   65       94.1     #  9   # 30    #107   #175
Real Time                                              #  2   # 31    #140   #199 
Seven Overtimes        +13.00   79   66       79       #  1   # 15    #102   #113
DPPI                   +17.80   84   66       93.0     #  4   # 42    #106   #240 
ESPN BPI               +18.00                 94.2     #  7   #133    # 90   #236
Whitlock               +17.13                          #  5   # 25    #112   #133
Colley Matrix          +23.10                          #  5   # 23    #147   #230
NCAA NET                                               #  7           #112 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #142*  #   
common opponents       +46.00     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +19.88   82.6 64.7     91.0
scatter                  7.65    2.1  1.6      5.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 26-5,
with the TCU home game moved to the end of the schedule given its currently
unknown date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 19 Michigan State              87  74    +5.15    +7.85
HOME   #172 Tarleton State              88  62   +23.65    +2.35
HOME   #182 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +24.31    +4.69
NEUT   # 93 North Texas                 71  59   +14.06    -2.06
NEUT   # 91 Dayton                      73  74   +13.88   -14.88
NEUT   #100 Iona College                96  83   +14.64    -1.64
AWAY   # 67 St. John's                  95  75    +9.15   +10.85
HOME   #174 UTEP                        78  52   +23.82    +2.18
HOME   #154 Missouri                   102  65   +22.85   +14.15
HOME   #131 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +20.86   -12.86
HOME   #109 Nevada                      88  61   +18.76    +8.24
HOME   #103 George Mason                         +18.28             0.955
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +7.07             0.757
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            +3.40             0.631
HOME   # 53 Iowa State                           +14.15             0.919
HOME   # 36 West Virginia                        +11.81             0.878
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +4.92             0.686
AWAY   # 81 Kansas State                         +10.29             0.845
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            +9.32             0.821
HOME   #  9 Kentucky                              +6.03             0.724
AWAY   # 53 Iowa State                            +8.23             0.792
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +3.11             0.684
AWAY   # 20 Texas                                 +2.34             0.591
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                             +10.84             0.858
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                       +12.99             0.900
AWAY   # 36 West Virginia                         +5.89             0.720
HOME   # 81 Kansas State                         +16.21             0.945
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -2.81             0.332
AWAY   # 57 TCU                                   +8.53             0.800
HOME   # 20 Texas                                 +8.26             0.793
HOME   # 57 TCU                                  +14.45             0.923

Here is George Mason's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #182 Stony Brook-NY              74  52    +8.99   +13.01
HOME   #188 Pennsylvania                87  66    +9.14   +11.86
HOME   #338 Morgan State                90  53   +20.10   +16.90
AWAY   # 60 Maryland                    71  66    -6.58   +11.58
AWAY   #159 James Madison               64  67    +1.81    -4.81
NEUT   #165 Washington                  74  77    +4.98    -7.98
NEUT   #109 Nevada                      69  88    +0.48   -19.48
NEUT   # 72 South Dakota State          76  80    -2.62    -1.38
HOME   #173 Old Dominion                50  60    +8.47   -18.47
HOME   #132 Navy                        71  65    +5.56    +0.44
AWAY   #177 Georgia                     80  67    +2.66   +10.34
HOME   #317 American U.                 67  44   +18.02    +4.98
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -18.28             0.045

At here's the update, though it may actually do more harm to the average than good, as
I suspect Dunkel did not proofread his prediction, which has Kansas winning the game
by 54.5 points.  Yes, you read that right.  54.5 points.  Maybe it'll get fixed between now
and tip-off, if somebody points it out to him.

Vegas has the point total right where I'd expect it at 145 points.  Dunkel has it up at 153
points.

                                                          10-1            7-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      George Mason
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +18.89   84   65       92       #  3   # 76    #110   #212
Sagarin Predictor      +18.28   84   65       95.5     #  2   # 76    #103   #212 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +20.62   85   64                #  2   # 76    #125   #212 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.13   84   65                #  3   # 76    #129   #212 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +15.14   82   67       89    
Massey                 +14.00   79   65       91       #  9   # 39    #116   #122
Pomeroy                +19.64   81   61                #  4   # 86    #129   #230
Greenfield             +19.00   82   63                #  6   # 30    #124   #135
Dunkel                 +54.50  104   49                # 18           #101                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +19.00   82   63                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +18.49   84   65       94.1     #  9   # 30    #107   #175
Real Time                                              #  2   # 31    #140   #199 
Seven Overtimes        +13.00   79   66       79       #  1   # 15    #102   #113
DPPI                   +17.80   84   66       93.0     #  4   # 42    #106   #240 
ESPN BPI               +18.00                 94.2     #  7   #133    # 90   #236
Whitlock               +17.13                          #  5   # 25    #112   #133
Colley Matrix          +23.10                          #  5   # 23    #147   #230
NCAA NET                                               #  7           #112 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #142*  #   
common opponents       +46.00     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +21.87   84.2 63.4     91.0
scatter                 11.05    6.3  4.6      5.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 26-5,
with the TCU home game moved to the end of the schedule given its currently
unknown date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 19 Michigan State              87  74    +5.15    +7.85
HOME   #172 Tarleton State              88  62   +23.65    +2.35
HOME   #182 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +24.31    +4.69
NEUT   # 93 North Texas                 71  59   +14.06    -2.06
NEUT   # 91 Dayton                      73  74   +13.88   -14.88
NEUT   #100 Iona College                96  83   +14.64    -1.64
AWAY   # 67 St. John's                  95  75    +9.15   +10.85
HOME   #174 UTEP                        78  52   +23.82    +2.18
HOME   #154 Missouri                   102  65   +22.85   +14.15
HOME   #131 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +20.86   -12.86
HOME   #109 Nevada                      88  61   +18.76    +8.24
HOME   #103 George Mason                         +18.28             0.955
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +7.07             0.757
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            +3.40             0.631
HOME   # 53 Iowa State                           +14.15             0.919
HOME   # 36 West Virginia                        +11.81             0.878
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +4.92             0.686
AWAY   # 81 Kansas State                         +10.29             0.845
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            +9.32             0.821
HOME   #  9 Kentucky                              +6.03             0.724
AWAY   # 53 Iowa State                            +8.23             0.792
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +3.11             0.684
AWAY   # 20 Texas                                 +2.34             0.591
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                             +10.84             0.858
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                       +12.99             0.900
AWAY   # 36 West Virginia                         +5.89             0.720
HOME   # 81 Kansas State                         +16.21             0.945
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -2.81             0.332
AWAY   # 57 TCU                                   +8.53             0.800
HOME   # 20 Texas                                 +8.26             0.793
HOME   # 57 TCU                                  +14.45             0.923

Here is George Mason's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #182 Stony Brook-NY              74  52    +8.99   +13.01
HOME   #188 Pennsylvania                87  66    +9.14   +11.86
HOME   #338 Morgan State                90  53   +20.10   +16.90
AWAY   # 60 Maryland                    71  66    -6.58   +11.58
AWAY   #159 James Madison               64  67    +1.81    -4.81
NEUT   #165 Washington                  74  77    +4.98    -7.98
NEUT   #109 Nevada                      69  88    +0.48   -19.48
NEUT   # 72 South Dakota State          76  80    -2.62    -1.38
HOME   #173 Old Dominion                50  60    +8.47   -18.47
HOME   #132 Navy                        71  65    +5.56    +0.44
AWAY   #177 Georgia                     80  67    +2.66   +10.34
HOME   #317 American U.                 67  44   +18.02    +4.98
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -18.28             0.045

As I suspected, the Dunkel prediction was in error.  It has since been fixed.
Now just a 22.5 point margin for Kansas.

Also, it was pointed out that Stony Brook is a common opponent, which
changes the common opponent average margin to just 28.5 points.  That
mistake is on me.

The updated table and averages:

                                                          10-1            7-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      George Mason
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +18.89   84   65       92       #  3   # 76    #110   #212
Sagarin Predictor      +18.28   84   65       95.5     #  2   # 76    #103   #212 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +20.62   85   64                #  2   # 76    #125   #212 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.13   84   65                #  3   # 76    #129   #212 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +15.14   82   67       89    
Massey                 +14.00   79   65       91       #  9   # 39    #116   #122
Pomeroy                +19.64   81   61                #  4   # 86    #129   #230
Greenfield             +19.00   82   63                #  6   # 30    #124   #135
Dunkel                 +22.50   88   65                # 18           #101                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +19.00   82   63                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +18.49   84   65       94.1     #  9   # 30    #107   #175
Real Time                                              #  2   # 31    #140   #199 
Seven Overtimes        +13.00   79   66       79       #  1   # 15    #102   #113
DPPI                   +17.80   84   66       93.0     #  4   # 42    #106   #240 
ESPN BPI               +18.00                 94.2     #  7   #133    # 90   #236
Whitlock               +17.13                          #  5   # 25    #112   #133
Colley Matrix          +23.10                          #  5   # 23    #147   #230
NCAA NET                                               #  7           #112 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #142*  #   
common opponents       +28.50     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +18.95   82.9 64.6     91.0
scatter                  3.58    2.5  1.6      5.3