predictions for Nevada game

Let's hope we don't have a repeat of last week.  I posted the game predictions,
and a few hours later, the game was canceled.  Wasted effort.  Actually, it's
rather amazing that we have a game at all today, given how Harvard had to
withdraw.  At least they did so far enough in advance for the Jayhawks to find
a replacement.  But with the way the virus is spreading, either team today
could find out with short notice that they don't have enough players, or a
coach, to compete.  So, knock on wood.  Given that there are now COVID issues
within the KU women's program, one might expect that it's just a matter of time
before it affects other athletic teams.

Also, it wasn't just any old opponent they could find, but a decent one at
that.  Nevada will play two seven-footers, which will give the Jayhawks a
different look for which to prepare, and valuable experience for later in
the season.

Also amazing is how most of the prognosticators stayed on top of the schedule
changes.  Of the ones I've been tracking for these postings, only RealTime
failed to post the change, and his Game Predictor in which two arbitrary teams
can be selected is still broken.  Once again, RealTime shows that it's not ready
for Prime Time.

The BPI is the most optimistic with a 21.7 point margin, actually 0.1 points
more than 7 hours ago, when I started assembling the various predictions.  The
pessimist is Dunkel with just a 6.5 point margin.  The average is 16.4 points
with a scatter of 3.7 points.

Sagarin's total points is way up at 160, more than either team averages.
Given Self's continued emphasis on better defense, I'd take the under on
total points.  Even Vegas, at 156 points, is higher than either team, who
are both averaging 153 points.  Dunkel has it at 150 points while Dolphin
has it way up there at 164 points.

The Wolfpack is among the more inconsistent teams out there.  They started
out horribly with way-below expectation performances against San Diego,
Santa Clara, and South Dakota State, but have since turned things around
with way-above expectation performances against George Mason and Washington,
so their trend is positive, but barely statistically significant.  However,
only one of those above-expectation performances was by enough to overcome
the predicted margin for today's game, giving the Wolfpack a 10 percent
chance of winning.  Meanwhile, none of Kansas' below-expectation performances
have been bad enough to lose today's game.  Still, the odds are of a 10 percent
chance of the Jayhawks losing.  And a non-zero chance of the game not even
happening.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Nev     KU      Defensive Stats      Nev     KU
Points/Game         77.1    85.8     Opp Points/Game     75.8    67.5
Avg Score Margin    +1.3   +18.3     Opp Effective FG %  51.4    49.5
Assists/Game        16.4    17.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.6    10.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.1    35.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.9    23.4
Effective FG %      50.9    58.2     Blocks/Game          3.3     4.5
Off Rebound %       23.1    35.5     Steals/Game          6.0     7.7
FTA/FGA            0.287   0.341     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.3    15.4
Turnover %          15.2    13.8

My Stats Comparison        KU             Nev
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.44           -1.55    
inconsistency          9.42           14.94    
trend                 -0.38 ± 1.09    +2.02 ± 1.92
mental toughness      +0.08 ± 0.48    -0.36 ± 0.84
average total pts      153.30         152.89    

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Grant Sherfield (guard)
most points        Grant Sherfield (guard)
most rebounds      Warren Washington (forward)
most assists       Grant Sherfield (guard)
most steals        Desmond Cambridge (guard)
most blocks        Warren Washington (forward)
most turnovers     Grant Sherfield (guard)
most fouls         Warren Washington (forward)

                                                           9-1            6-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Nevada
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +17.61   89   71       91       #  3   # 65    #104   #110
Sagarin Predictor      +17.77   89   71       92.3     #  2   # 65    #105   #110 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +17.86   89   71                #  3   # 65    #103   #110 
Sagarin Recent Games   +13.42   87   73                #  5   # 65    # 68   #110 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +17.37   89   71       91    
Massey                 +11.00   82   71       85       # 10   # 39    # 93   # 48
Pomeroy                +15.47   86   70                #  5   # 94    # 77   #111
Greenfield             +16.50   87   70                #  6   # 29    # 94   # 98
Dunkel                  +6.50   78   72                # 19           #106                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +17.50   87   69                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +17.98   91   73       92.5     # 10   # 25    #122   #120
Real Time                                              #  1   # 31    # 99   # 57 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   84   70       82       #  1   # 17    #104   #141
DPPI                   +19.30   85.5 66       92.5     #  6   # 35    #110   # 81 
ESPN BPI               +21.70                 95.5     # 10   #113    #123   #174
Whitlock               +18.22                          #  5   # 25    #124   #124
Colley Matrix          +19.65                          #  6   # 21    #117   # 62
NCAA NET                                               #  7           #130 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 88*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +16.37   86.4 70.6     90.2
scatter                  3.68    3.5  1.8      4.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection remains at 25-6,
with the TCU home game moved to the end of the schedule given its currently
unknown date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 15 Michigan State              87  74    +4.30    +8.70
HOME   #180 Tarleton State              88  62   +23.70    +2.30
HOME   #186 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +24.01    +4.99
NEUT   # 94 North Texas                 71  59   +13.71    -1.71
NEUT   # 90 Dayton                      73  74   +13.64   -14.64
NEUT   # 99 Iona College                96  83   +14.21    -1.21
AWAY   # 67 St. John's                  95  75    +9.03   +10.97
HOME   #172 UTEP                        78  52   +23.47    +2.53
HOME   #157 Missouri                   102  65   +22.25   +14.75
HOME   #130 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +20.26   -12.26
HOME   #105 Nevada                               +17.76             0.923
HOME   #104 George Mason                         +17.74             0.958
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma State                        +7.01             0.753
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                            +3.35             0.628
HOME   # 56 Iowa State                           +13.78             0.911
HOME   # 37 West Virginia                        +11.19             0.863
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                              +5.08             0.690
AWAY   # 81 Kansas State                         +10.22             0.841
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                            +8.87             0.807
HOME   # 18 Kentucky                              +7.20             0.759
AWAY   # 56 Iowa State                            +8.26             0.790
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +2.78             0.662
AWAY   # 21 Texas                                 +2.21             0.585
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                             +10.60             0.850
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma State                       +12.53             0.889
AWAY   # 37 West Virginia                         +5.67             0.710
HOME   # 81 Kansas State                         +15.74             0.938
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -2.74             0.340
AWAY   # 61 TCU                                   +8.79             0.805
HOME   # 21 Texas                                 +7.73             0.775
HOME   # 61 TCU                                  +14.31             0.919

Here is Nevada's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #212 Eastern Washington          91  76   +10.22    +4.78
HOME   #208 San Diego                   68  75   +10.04   -17.04
AWAY   # 95 Santa Clara                 74  96    -4.00   -18.00
AWAY   # 51 San Francisco               70  73    -7.15    +4.15
NEUT   # 72 South Dakota State          75 102    -2.83   -24.17
NEUT   #104 George Mason                88  69    -0.02   +19.02
NEUT   #164 Washington                  81  62    +4.91   +14.09
HOME   #213 Pepperdine                  79  66   +10.23    +2.77
Div2        Minnesota Duluth            98  62
HOME   #123 Loyola Marymount            68  63    +4.54    +0.46
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -17.76             0.077