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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Update 12/29/2021
2 years 10 months ago #27995
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Not a whole lot to update other than Covid is determining the outcome of more games than players on the court. But a few brave teams have managed to play games including 3 Big 12 teams last night. The result of those games did shift the Big 12 race projection some and it is good new for KU fans.
1. KU will theoretically play a game tonight against Nevada. With the capriciousness of Covid, that is never a sure thing until the ref throws up the ball. My DPPI has KU favored by 19 points, 85-66 with a 93% probability of winning. Nevada is ranked 111th overall, 88th in defense and 123rd in offense.
2. KU has dropped to 5th in offensive efficiency but have improved to 8th in defensive efficiency.
3. KU projected to win 24.1 of the current 30 scheduled games.
4. KU is projected to win 13.5 conference games and is now the favorite (barely) to win the conference.
5. KU has a 38.1% probability of winning the conference championship outright and a 54% probability of winning with at least a tie. Baylor is just fractionally behind.
6. Kentucky, KU's future SEC Challenge opponent has moved up to 12th in the DPPI. They are playing better and better. They are 9-2 and are projected to win 20.6 of 31 games. With KU projected to win 24.1 games we would not quite catch them in all time wins since we need to gain 4. But if KU manages to schedule another non-conference game for Saturday that would likely put us with a probability to catch or overtake them for all-time wins. Rescheduling the game for Saturday is pretty significant.
7. Ochai Agbaji is currently 3rd in the nation in scoring average at 22.0 PPG.
8. KU is 5th in scoring in the country at 85.1 PPG
9. KU is 3rd in the country in FG% at 0.519
10. KU has a PPP offense of 1.225 on the season which is the best in KU history (at least back to 1991) How long can they keep this up? The previous best was the 2008 NC team at 1.163. This team has been electric offensively thus far. That will change in conference play.
11. There is no single reason why KU's offense has been so efficient. As mentioned above they are shooting 51.9% which sure helps offensive efifciency. But another key factor is KU is turning the ball over less than they ever have. They have an all-time low % LoB of 16.2%. The historical average under Self is 19.4%. That equates to over 2 possessions per game saved which equates to about 2.3 PPG added onto the offense. That is very significant.
12. The third reason KU is so wildly efficient on offense is their offensive rebounding. KU has grabbed 38.8% of offensive rebounds. To give you a frame of reference, the average under Self is 34.9%. With roughly 33 or so missed shots per game, this increased rebound % results in around 1.5 points per game increase. This triumvirate of better shooting, fewer turnovers and better offensive rebounding is the key to our incredible offensive efficiency.
13. KU's scoring margin of 0.256 points per possession this season is second only to the 2008 team at 0.272 PPP.
1. KU will theoretically play a game tonight against Nevada. With the capriciousness of Covid, that is never a sure thing until the ref throws up the ball. My DPPI has KU favored by 19 points, 85-66 with a 93% probability of winning. Nevada is ranked 111th overall, 88th in defense and 123rd in offense.
2. KU has dropped to 5th in offensive efficiency but have improved to 8th in defensive efficiency.
3. KU projected to win 24.1 of the current 30 scheduled games.
4. KU is projected to win 13.5 conference games and is now the favorite (barely) to win the conference.
5. KU has a 38.1% probability of winning the conference championship outright and a 54% probability of winning with at least a tie. Baylor is just fractionally behind.
6. Kentucky, KU's future SEC Challenge opponent has moved up to 12th in the DPPI. They are playing better and better. They are 9-2 and are projected to win 20.6 of 31 games. With KU projected to win 24.1 games we would not quite catch them in all time wins since we need to gain 4. But if KU manages to schedule another non-conference game for Saturday that would likely put us with a probability to catch or overtake them for all-time wins. Rescheduling the game for Saturday is pretty significant.
7. Ochai Agbaji is currently 3rd in the nation in scoring average at 22.0 PPG.
8. KU is 5th in scoring in the country at 85.1 PPG
9. KU is 3rd in the country in FG% at 0.519
10. KU has a PPP offense of 1.225 on the season which is the best in KU history (at least back to 1991) How long can they keep this up? The previous best was the 2008 NC team at 1.163. This team has been electric offensively thus far. That will change in conference play.
11. There is no single reason why KU's offense has been so efficient. As mentioned above they are shooting 51.9% which sure helps offensive efifciency. But another key factor is KU is turning the ball over less than they ever have. They have an all-time low % LoB of 16.2%. The historical average under Self is 19.4%. That equates to over 2 possessions per game saved which equates to about 2.3 PPG added onto the offense. That is very significant.
12. The third reason KU is so wildly efficient on offense is their offensive rebounding. KU has grabbed 38.8% of offensive rebounds. To give you a frame of reference, the average under Self is 34.9%. With roughly 33 or so missed shots per game, this increased rebound % results in around 1.5 points per game increase. This triumvirate of better shooting, fewer turnovers and better offensive rebounding is the key to our incredible offensive efficiency.
13. KU's scoring margin of 0.256 points per possession this season is second only to the 2008 team at 0.272 PPP.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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