predictions for Colorado game

Easy come, easy go.  A lackluster win over Stephen F. Austin dropped Kansas from
the top spot in the Sagarin and RealTime ratings, but the Jayhawks are still
perched at the top of the Seven Overtimes ratings.  The lackluster performance
was perhaps due to the one-week finals hiatus, but more likely due to some
non-COVID illness that had Adams sidelined and Harris subpar.  Agbaji started
off hot and then kind of disappeared.  DMac picked up a couple quick fouls and
sat a lot; while he was in the game, he grabbed zero rebounds and couldn't hit
a charity.  Remy was critical of his own performance in postgame interviews.
Fortunately, Braun remained at his recent high level, Wilson added some punch
off the bench, and Lightfoot was steady, if unspectacular, when we needed him.

It's been a while since Kansas has played a game in Allen Field House Far West
(Allen Field House West is the Octogon of Dumb, right?).  Good fan support ought
to reduce the home court advantage for a team that ranks similarly to North Texas,
Dayton, and St. John's, as well as the bottom of the Big 12.

Colorado is one of the more consistent teams out there, having played all but one
game within 10 points of expectation.  The biggest outlier is an 18 point above
expectation drubbing of Maine, who they beat by 44 points.  That's the only
performance good enough to overcome the 10 point underdog status they have going
into today's game.  Having played 12 games, that represents a 1 in 12, or 8.3
percent chance of winning the game.  Although the Buffaloes have scored as many
as 94 points, they've not topped the 65 point threshold in their last five games,
so again I'm thinking of the under compared to Sagarin's predicted 147.5 total
points.

Everyone is picking Kansas to win.  The DPPI is the most favorable, giving the
Jayhawks a 15 point margin, while RealTime is the least favorable with just a
single point margin.  Then again, what does RealTime know?  He has the St. John's
game as a home game for Kansas, with no indication that neutral court games are
handled differently from home or road games, with the "at" shown for the one
neutral court game in which Kansas wore road blue instead of home white (Iona).
I've noted RealTime's use of a huge home court advantage on multiple occasions,
and his tiny margin once again indicates a much larger home court advantage than
the other prognosticators use.  I attempted to determine the value he's using,
but his manual game predictor is broken, returning an "Internal Server Error".
I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  RealTime isn't ready for Prime Time.

To lose this game, Kansas would need to play more than 10 points below expectation,
which has happened twice so far this season:  Dayton and Stephen F. Austin.  That's
out of 10 games for a 20 percent chance of losing.  Average that with Colorado's
8.3 percent chance of winning, and we get about an 84 percent chance of Kansas
winning the game, which is where the BPI has it pegged.

The average of the various prognostications is right at 9 points, with the final
score running about 78 to 69.  Keep in mind that this game is being played at
altitude, meaning the Jayhawks could get winded a bit more easily.  Fortunately,
the team has some depth, and it might be wise to rotate more players than usual.

Mele Kalikimaka, everyone!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      CU      KU      Defensive Stats      CU      KU
Points/Game         71.0    85.8     Opp Points/Game     65.2    67.5
Avg Score Margin    +5.8   +18.3     Opp Effective FG %  47.4    49.5
Assists/Game        12.3    17.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.0    10.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.7    35.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.8    23.4
Effective FG %      49.6    58.2     Blocks/Game          3.3     4.5
Off Rebound %       29.7    35.5     Steals/Game          5.6     7.7
FTA/FGA            0.403   0.338     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.7    15.4
Turnover %          16.4    13.8

My Stats Comparison        KU             CU 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.47           -1.92    
inconsistency          9.33            7.53    
trend                 -0.30 ± 1.08    -0.61 ± 0.63
mental toughness      +0.05 ± 0.48    -0.33 ± 0.21
average total pts      153.30         136.17    

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Eli Parquet (guard)
most points        Jabari Walker (forward)
most rebounds      Jabari Walker (forward)
most assists       Keeshawn Barthelemy (guard)
most steals        Benan Ersek (guard)
most blocks        Eli Parquet (guard)
most turnovers     K. J. Simpson (guard)
most fouls         Evan Battey (forward)

Jabari Walker left the last game with a head injury, and his availability for
the Kansas game is uncertain.  Reserve guard Javon Ruffin has been out with a
knee injury and hasn't played so far this season.

                                                           9-1            9-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Colorado
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.87   79   69       80       #  3   # 65    # 78   #240
Sagarin Predictor      +10.20   79   69       88.6     #  3   # 65    # 85   #420 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.86   78   69                #  3   # 65    # 64   #240 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.71   79   69                #  5   # 65    # 87   #240 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +8.72   78   69       78    
Massey                  +6.00   75   69       71       #  9   # 39    # 66   #113
Pomeroy                 +9.11   74   65       79       #  4   # 86    # 77   #241
Greenfield             +10.50   77   67                #  6   # 31    # 89   #127
Dunkel                  +7.00   80   73                # 16           # 59                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +10.50   77   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +8.92   78   69       77.5     #  9   # 24    #116   #176
Real Time               +1.00   82   81       53.6     #  4   # 39    # 72   #199 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   76   69       68       #  1   # 16    # 96   #162
DPPI                   +15.00   80   65       95       #  4   # 32    #118   #    
ESPN BPI               +10.80                 84.0     #  8   #110    #128   #228
Whitlock               +11.14                          #  4   # 28    #111   # 97
Colley Matrix           +8.43                          #  8   # 25    # 60   #192
NCAA NET                                               #  7           #110 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 11*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.99   78.0 69.3     77.5
scatter                  2.88    2.1  3.9     11.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back down to
25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 16 Michigan State              87  74    +4.55    +8.45
HOME   #208 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.86    +1.14
HOME   #182 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +23.65    +5.35
NEUT   # 92 North Texas                 71  59   +13.93    -1.93
NEUT   # 74 Dayton                      73  74   +12.50   -13.50
NEUT   #103 Iona College                96  83   +14.83    -1.83
AWAY   # 69 St. John's                  95  75    +9.29   +10.71
HOME   #159 UTEP                        78  52   +22.48    +3.52
HOME   #147 Missouri                   102  65   +21.75   +15.25
HOME   #130 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +20.44   -12.44
AWAY   # 85 Colorado                             +10.20             0.886
HOME   #154 Harvard                              +22.02             0.985
HOME   # 68 TCU                                  +15.02             0.930
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +6.71             0.745
AWAY   # 27 Texas Tech                            +3.33             0.628
HOME   # 52 Iowa State                           +13.63             0.909
HOME   # 37 West Virginia                        +11.97             0.880
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                              +5.08             0.691
AWAY   # 86 Kansas State                         +10.23             0.842
HOME   # 27 Texas Tech                            +9.09             0.814
HOME   # 23 Kentucky                              +8.21             0.790
AWAY   # 52 Iowa State                            +7.87             0.780
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +2.56             0.651
AWAY   # 18 Texas                                 +1.75             0.568
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                             +10.84             0.856
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                       +12.47             0.889
AWAY   # 37 West Virginia                         +6.21             0.729
HOME   # 86 Kansas State                         +15.99             0.942
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -3.20             0.314
AWAY   # 68 TCU                                   +9.26             0.818
HOME   # 18 Texas                                 +7.51             0.769

Here is Colorado's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #166 Montana State               94  90    +9.97    -5.97
HOME   #191 New Mexico                  87  76   +10.97    +0.03
HOME   #355 Maine                       90  46   +25.19   +18.81
NEUT   #138 Southern Illinois           63  67    +5.28    -9.28
NEUT   #195 Duquesne                    84  76    +8.22    -0.22
NEUT   #148 Brown                       54  52    +5.80    -3.80
HOME   # 94 Stanford                    80  76    +3.81    +0.19
AWAY   # 11 UCLA                        61  73   -12.39    +0.39
HOME   # 10 Tennessee                   54  69    -6.76    -8.24
HOME   #196 Eastern Washington          60  57   +11.16    -8.16
HOME   #286 Milwaukee                   65  54   +17.55    -6.55
HOME   #242 CS Bakersfield              60  46   +14.28    -0.28
HOME   #  3 Kansas                               -10.20             0.114