predictions for Stephen F. Austin game

A convincing win over Misery propelled Kansas to #1 in Sagarin Overall,
Sagarin Predictor, RealTime, and Seven Overtimes.  It was almost 14 points
above expectation, making it the best game of the season for Kansas so far,
and giving the Jayhawks a positive trend value, though it is not statistically
significant.

Stephen F. Austin has as many victories as does Kansas, but the Lumberjacks'
record is deceptive, with half of their wins coming against non-Division I
competition.  Greenfield shows their score margin as a negative value, which
apparent includes only the Division I games.

Sagarin is predicting 160 total points despite the fact that neither team is
averaging that many total points per game.  SFA's 146 average would be even
lower if only the Division I games were included, so I'm tempted to take the
under on total points.  But the Jayhawk offense was really humming against
Misery, so if that wasn't just an freak case of Harris getting hot from
beyond the arc, Kansas could score close to the century mark again,  in which
case the Lumberjacks would need to be held to under 60 points to keep the
total under 160.  That hasn't happened yet, but then again, SFA hasn't played
an opponent the caliber of Kansas, who has the #28 defense according to
Pomeroy.  The toughest defense they've faced so far is Liberty, who Pomeroy
has with the #100 defense, and the Lumberjacks managed a season-low 63 points.
Vegas has the total points as 150, while Dunkel has it as low as 141 points.

SFA played more than 22 points below expectation in their most recent game
against Louisiana Monroe (their worst game of the season), giving them a
negative trend, but that is also not statistically significant.

It's unclear to me whether the difference in most recent action will have any
effect.  It'll be a week since the Jayhawks' previous game, whereas SFA played
on Tuesday.

Predicted margins range from 30.5 points (Dunkel) to 15 points (Colley).  The
average is 23.2 points.

Merry Christmas everyone!  Here's to hoping the Jayhawks stuff your Christmas
stocking with another win!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     SFA      KU      Defensive Stats     SFA      KU
Points/Game         72.7    86.4     Opp Points/Game     73.6    67.0
Avg Score Margin    -0.9   +19.4     Opp Effective FG %  52.8    48.3
Assists/Game        12.4    17.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.3    10.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.0    36.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.4    24.2
Effective FG %      49.5    58.5     Blocks/Game          4.7     4.3
Off Rebound %       32.0    36.3     Steals/Game          9.1     7.7
FTA/FGA            0.375   0.326     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.9    15.9
Turnover %          17.8    13.3

My Stats Comparison        KU            SFA 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.70           -1.92    
inconsistency          8.26           11.70    
trend                 +0.70 ± 1.11    -1.59 ± 2.31
mental toughness      -0.05 ± 0.42    +0.60 ± 0.66
average total pts      153.44         146.29    

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Roti Ware (guard)
most points        Gavin Kensmil (forward)
most rebounds      Gavin Kensmil (forward)
most assists       David Kacheiries (guard)
most steals        Jaylin Jackson-Posey (guard)
most blocks        Sadaidriene Hall (forward)
most turnovers     Gavin Kensmil (forward)
most fouls         Gavin Kensmil (forward)

                                                           8-1            8-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      S. F. Austin
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +22.38   91   69       95       #  1   # 59    #150   #177
Sagarin Predictor      +22.39   91   69       98.6     #  1   # 59    #149   #177 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +22.31   91   69                #  2   # 59    #149   #177 
Sagarin Recent Games   +23.00   92   69                #  3   # 59    #193   #177 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +25.98   93   67       96    
Massey                 +24.00   87   63       97       #  6   # 28    #197   #265
Pomeroy                +22.42   84   62                #  3   # 76    #154   #188
Greenfield             +23.50   87   63                #  6   # 16    #210   #292
Dunkel                 +30.50   86   55                # 22           #149                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +23.00   86.5 63.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +24.95   91   66       97.9     #  5   #  9    #212   #252
Real Time              +24.00   90   66       96.7     #  1   # 42    #135   #152 
Seven Overtimes        +16.00   83   67       82       #  1   # 10    #120   #212
DPPI                   +24.20   89   64       97.3     #  4   # 27    #139   # 65 
ESPN BPI               +27.00                 98.0     #  3   # 84    #226   #341
Whitlock               +23.11                          #  5   # 24    #184   #337
Colley Matrix          +15.08                          # 11   # 36    # 82   # 94
NCAA NET                                               #  4           #188 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #221*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +23.17   88.7 65.2     95.4
scatter                  3.55    3.1  3.9      5.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 13 Michigan State              87  74    +4.49    +8.51
HOME   #204 Tarleton State              88  62   +25.31    +0.69
HOME   #175 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +23.88    +5.12
NEUT   #103 North Texas                 71  59   +15.27    -3.27
NEUT   # 63 Dayton                      73  74   +12.17   -13.17
NEUT   # 96 Iona College                96  83   +14.71    -1.71
AWAY   # 61 St. John's                  95  75    +8.67   +11.33
HOME   #156 UTEP                        78  52   +22.85    +3.15
HOME   #161 Missouri                   102  65   +23.31   +13.69
HOME   #149 Stephen F. Austin                    +22.39             0.986
AWAY   # 80 Colorado                             +10.17             0.852
HOME   #142 Harvard                              +21.63             0.987
HOME   # 79 TCU                                  +16.45             0.955
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +7.18             0.770
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                            +3.64             0.646
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                           +14.55             0.933
HOME   # 39 West Virginia                        +13.33             0.915
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                              +5.26             0.706
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                         +10.67             0.864
HOME   # 26 Texas Tech                            +9.98             0.848
HOME   # 25 Kentucky                              +9.87             0.845
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                            +8.21             0.801
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +3.60             0.731
AWAY   # 16 Texas                                 +1.81             0.574
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                             +11.60             0.883
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                       +13.52             0.918
AWAY   # 39 West Virginia                         +6.99             0.764
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                         +17.01             0.960
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -2.74             0.320
AWAY   # 79 TCU                                  +10.11             0.851
HOME   # 16 Texas                                 +8.15             0.799

Here is Stephen F. Austin's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        LSU Alexandria              82  73
Div3        Mary Hardin-Baylor          76  63
HOME   # 78 South Dakota State          71  83    -2.80    -9.20
HOME   #195 Middle Tennessee            87  74    +5.59    +7.41
NEUT   # 68 Buffalo                     79  78    -6.87    +7.87
NEUT   # 52 Saint Louis                 68  79    -8.26    -2.74
AWAY   #336 Northwestern State          72  68    +9.95    -5.95
Div2        Lincoln University          90  54
NAIA        Wiley                      100  76
HOME   #119 Liberty                     63  51    +0.93   +11.07
HOME   #245 ULM                         69  82    +8.90   -21.90
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -22.39             0.014