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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Misery game
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2 years 11 months ago #27906
by asteroid
Sigh. Sagarin is once again taking his sweet little old time posting the latest
ratings and predictions for Saturday's games. Everybody else is ready to go. So
I'll go with what I have (the ratings as of our previous game) and try to post an
update before tip-off.
It's been a while since I've said this about a game, but for today's contest you can
throw away the records, throw away the stats, throw away the rankings, and so on.
For this game, the dominant factor is sheer emotion, and it'll come more from the
fans than the players, none of whom have been previously played in this rivalry
game, not counting the hurricane relief exhibition back in 2017. On paper, Kansas
should have an easy time of it. The reality will be different.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats MU KU Defensive Stats MU KU
Points/Game 63.5 84.5 Opp Points/Game 64.0 67.3
Avg Score Margin -0.5 +17.3 Opp Effective FG % 50.9 48.4
Assists/Game 11.1 17.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.0 10.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.9 36.5 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.5 24.5
Effective FG % 44.3 57.4 Blocks/Game 3.9 4.1
Off Rebound % 33.3 35.5 Steals/Game 7.4 7.9
FTA/FGA 0.315 0.300 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.4 15.9
Turnover % 18.9 13.4
My Stats Comparison KU MU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.86 -3.57
inconsistency 7.33 11.55
trend -0.08 ± 1.22 +1.20 ± 1.86
mental toughness +0.15 ± 0.37 -0.28 ± 0.39
average total pts 151.75 127.50
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Kobe Brown (forward)
most points Kobe Brown (forward)
most rebounds Kobe Brown (forward)
most assists Jarron Coleman (guard)
most steals Kobe Brown (forward)
most blocks two-way tie
most turnovers Kobe Brown (forward)
most fouls Kobe Brown (forward)
Coleman has been injured, and his availability is not known. Forward Trevon
Brazile has been sick, and his availability is also not known; he's seventh
on the team in minutes played and averages just 4 points a game. Coleman is
the bigger concern. Otherwise, it appears that Brown is the key to the game.
Put Marcus Garrett on him and we should be fine. Just one problem: Marcus
graduated.
7-1 5-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Misery
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + . # 3 # 49 #176 #187
Sagarin Predictor +21.85 81 59 98.8 # 4 # 49 #169 #187
Sagarin Golden Mean + . # 2 # 49 #204 #187
Sagarin Recent Games + . # 5 # 49 #217 #187
Sagarin Eigenvector + .
Massey +16.00 78 62 93 # 11 # 43 #149 #183
Pomeroy +20.13 80 60 # 4 # 84 #139 #284
Greenfield +22.00 82 60 # 6 # 19 #174 #223
Dunkel +26.00 86.5 60.5 # 23 #128
Vegas (via Dunkel) +22.50 83 61
Dolphin Predictive +19.77 82 62 95.3 # 9 # 13 #203 #284
Real Time +25.00 87 62 98.6 # 2 # 91 #224 #302
Seven Overtimes +32.00 86 54 92 # 5 # 16 #249 #225
DPPI +27.10 84 57 98.2 # 7 # 40 #218 #266
ESPN BPI +19.90 95.3 # 5 # 75 #153 #219
Whitlock +25.18 # 5 # 25 #250 #280
Colley Matrix +23.01 # 18 # 64 #205 #173
NCAA NET # 7 #255
LRMC # 15* # # 51* #
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average + . . . .
scatter . . . .
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to
where it started, namely 25-6:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 17 Michigan State 87 74 +3.67 +9.33
HOME #238 Tarleton State 88 62 +26.02 -0.02
HOME #211 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +24.43 +4.57
NEUT # 96 North Texas 71 59 +13.67 -1.67
NEUT # 62 Dayton 73 74 +10.83 -11.83
NEUT #103 Iona College 96 83 +14.15 -1.15
AWAY # 71 St. John's 95 75 +8.32 +11.68
HOME #169 UTEP 78 52 +22.06 +3.94
HOME #166 Missouri +21.85 0.988
HOME #144 Stephen F. Austin +20.25 0.985
AWAY # 70 Colorado +8.29 0.812
HOME #135 Harvard +19.83 0.983
HOME # 90 TCU +15.90 0.956
AWAY # 42 Oklahoma State +5.67 0.728
AWAY # 23 Texas Tech +1.71 0.573
HOME # 74 Iowa State +14.50 0.940
HOME # 48 West Virginia +12.43 0.908
AWAY # 37 Oklahoma +4.49 0.685
AWAY # 82 Kansas State +9.18 0.837
HOME # 23 Texas Tech +7.65 0.793
HOME # 20 Kentucky +7.27 0.782
AWAY # 74 Iowa State +8.56 0.820
HOME # 5 Baylor +3.04 0.721
AWAY # 13 Texas +0.51 0.522
HOME # 37 Oklahoma +10.43 0.868
HOME # 42 Oklahoma State +11.61 0.893
AWAY # 48 West Virginia +6.49 0.756
HOME # 82 Kansas State +15.12 0.947
AWAY # 5 Baylor -2.90 0.288
AWAY # 90 TCU +9.96 0.857
HOME # 13 Texas +6.45 0.755
Here is Misery's season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #332 Central Michigan 78 68 +14.45 -4.45
HOME #230 Kansas City(UMKC) 66 80 +6.80 -20.80
HOME #333 Northern Illinois 54 37 +14.56 +2.44
NEUT # 87 SMU 80 75 -6.22 +11.22
NEUT # 36 Florida State 58 81 -11.47 -11.53
HOME # 64 Wichita State 55 61 -4.91 -1.09
NAIA Paul Quinn 91 59
AWAY #117 Liberty 45 66 -6.41 -14.59
HOME #350 Eastern Illinois 72 44 +17.76 +10.24
AWAY # 4 Kansas -21.85 0.012
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, DocBlues, newtonhawk
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- asteroid
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2 years 11 months ago #27907
by asteroid
It's been a while since I've said this about a game, but for today's contest you can
throw away the records, throw away the stats, throw away the rankings, and so on.
For this game, the dominant factor is sheer emotion, and it'll come more from the
fans than the players, none of whom have been previously played in this rivalry
game, not counting the hurricane relief exhibition back in 2017. On paper, Kansas
should have an easy time of it. The reality will be different.
Predicted margins for Kansas range from 16 to 32 points. The average is nearly
23 points, with a scatter of a bit under 4 points. But that's on paper. Now
throw away the paper.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats MU KU Defensive Stats MU KU
Points/Game 63.5 84.5 Opp Points/Game 64.0 67.3
Avg Score Margin -0.5 +17.3 Opp Effective FG % 50.9 48.4
Assists/Game 11.1 17.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.0 10.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.9 36.5 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.5 24.5
Effective FG % 44.3 57.4 Blocks/Game 3.9 4.1
Off Rebound % 33.3 35.5 Steals/Game 7.4 7.9
FTA/FGA 0.315 0.300 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.4 15.9
Turnover % 18.9 13.4
My Stats Comparison KU MU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.52 -4.71
inconsistency 7.73 11.50
trend -0.19 ± 1.29 +1.14 ± 1.86
mental toughness +0.18 ± 0.39 -0.24 ± 0.38
average total pts 151.75 127.50
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Kobe Brown (forward)
most points Kobe Brown (forward)
most rebounds Kobe Brown (forward)
most assists Jarron Coleman (guard)
most steals Kobe Brown (forward)
most blocks two-way tie
most turnovers Kobe Brown (forward)
most fouls Kobe Brown (forward)
Coleman has been injured, and his availability is not known. Forward Trevon
Brazile has been sick, and his availability is also not known; he's seventh
on the team in minutes played and averages just 4 points a game. Coleman is
the bigger concern. Otherwise, it appears that Brown is the key to the game.
Put Marcus Garrett on him and we should be fine. Just one problem: Marcus
graduated.
7-1 5-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Misery
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +21.40 81 60 94 # 3 # 49 #176 #187
Sagarin Predictor +21.43 81 60 98.6 # 4 # 49 #169 #187
Sagarin Golden Mean +20.85 81 60 # 2 # 49 #204 #187
Sagarin Recent Games +24.34 83 58.5 # 5 # 49 #217 #187
Sagarin Eigenvector +23.81 83 59 95
Massey +16.00 78 62 93 # 11 # 43 #149 #183
Pomeroy +20.13 80 60 # 4 # 84 #139 #284
Greenfield +22.00 82 60 # 6 # 19 #174 #223
Dunkel +26.00 86.5 60.5 # 23 #128
Vegas (via Dunkel) +22.50 83 61
Dolphin Predictive +19.77 82 62 95.3 # 9 # 13 #203 #284
Real Time +25.00 87 62 98.6 # 2 # 91 #224 #302
Seven Overtimes +32.00 86 54 92 # 5 # 16 #249 #225
DPPI +27.10 84 57 98.2 # 7 # 40 #218 #266
ESPN BPI +19.90 95.3 # 5 # 75 #153 #219
Whitlock +25.18 # 5 # 25 #250 #280
Colley Matrix +23.01 # 18 # 64 #205 #173
NCAA NET # 7 #255
LRMC # 15* # # 51* #
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +22.97 82.7 59.7 95.6
scatter 3.59 2.6 2.3 2.4
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back up to 26-5:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 13 Michigan State 87 74 +3.92 +9.08
HOME #232 Tarleton State 88 62 +26.11 -0.11
HOME #187 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +23.58 +5.42
NEUT # 99 North Texas 71 59 +14.14 -2.14
NEUT # 76 Dayton 73 74 +12.13 -13.13
NEUT #105 Iona College 96 83 +14.53 -1.53
AWAY # 68 St. John's 95 75 +8.29 +11.71
HOME #178 UTEP 78 52 +23.14 +2.86
HOME #153 Missouri +21.43 0.986
HOME #148 Stephen F. Austin +21.06 0.987
AWAY # 82 Colorado +9.69 0.846
HOME #141 Harvard +20.70 0.985
HOME # 84 TCU +16.10 0.955
AWAY # 39 Oklahoma State +5.64 0.724
AWAY # 20 Texas Tech +1.66 0.569
HOME # 53 Iowa State +13.35 0.920
HOME # 43 West Virginia +12.58 0.907
AWAY # 42 Oklahoma +6.20 0.743
AWAY # 83 Kansas State +9.74 0.847
HOME # 20 Texas Tech +7.96 0.799
HOME # 24 Kentucky +8.33 0.810
AWAY # 53 Iowa State +7.05 0.771
HOME # 6 Baylor +3.81 0.757
AWAY # 14 Texas +0.82 0.534
HOME # 42 Oklahoma +12.50 0.906
HOME # 39 Oklahoma State +11.94 0.895
AWAY # 43 West Virginia +6.28 0.746
HOME # 83 Kansas State +16.04 0.954
AWAY # 6 Baylor -2.49 0.324
AWAY # 84 TCU +9.80 0.849
HOME # 14 Texas +7.12 0.773
Here is Misery's season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #324 Central Michigan 78 68 +14.87 -4.87
HOME #240 Kansas City(UMKC) 66 80 +8.65 -22.65
HOME #335 Northern Illinois 54 37 +15.88 +1.12
NEUT # 85 SMU 80 75 -5.22 +10.22
NEUT # 35 Florida State 58 81 -10.49 -12.51
HOME # 58 Wichita State 55 61 -4.21 -1.79
NAIA Paul Quinn 91 59
AWAY #116 Liberty 45 66 -5.65 -15.35
HOME #355 Eastern Illinois 72 44 +19.88 +8.12
AWAY # 5 Kansas -21.43 0.014
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk
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