predictions for UTEP game

Whitlock is now on board for this season.  Also, the NCAA's NET rankings are now
up for this season, with Kansas at #13.  Purdue is the current #1, with future
Big 12 member Houston at #3, Baylor at #6, Texas at #16, future member BYU at
#20, and Iowa State at #21, which is rather amazing considering that the Cyclones
were picked to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 with Kansas State.

Interesting disagreement betwene Dunkel and Vegas for this game.  Dunkel has the
wider margin by 7 points, while Vegas has the higher total by 15 points.  Yes,
UTEP has been playing low-scoring games, but is that enough to expect a game
with only 129 total points?  Makes it sound like UTEP will dictate the tempo
of the game.  I doubt it.  Take the over, Dunkel.

Also of interest is the fact that when I checked Greenfield's prediction a day
ago, the margin was at 20.5 points.  Then I saw Dunkel's prediction, along with
Vegas' prediction according to Dunkel, which was 19.5 points.  Sure enough, when
I checked Greenfield's prediction a moment ago, it was down to 19.5 points.  Is
Greenfield simply taking Vegas' predictions, or is Greenfield supplying Vegas
with predictions?

The careful reader will also notice a discrepancy between the Sagarin Predictor
margin of 20.58 points and my own prediction based on Sagarin Predictor of 22.06
points.  The reason for the discrepancy is that Kansas isn't playing in Allen
Field House.  Apparently Sagarin uses a smaller value for the home court advantage
when dealing with what he calls "close-by" games, whereas I have treated the game
as a home game for Kansas.  What do readers think?  Do the Jayhawks have less of
an advantage in Kansas City than in Lawrence?  I would say yes for conference
tournament games, especially ones involving Iowa State and Kansas State, but not
for an opponent like UTEP.

Not that it matters all that much for this game.  Predicted margins fall in the
17 to 26 point range, with the probabilities of winning ranging from 92 to 99.6
percent.  Just a tune-up for Saturday's rivalry game.

UTEP's 4-3 record is deceptive, with two of those wins coming against one NAIA
team and one Division II team.  The toughest opponent they've faced to this
point is New Mexico State, including both home and away games, losing both.
The highest ranked team over which the Miners have a win is #201 Pacific, and
they played 10 points above expectation in that one.

The biggest problem with a game like this is thinking that all you have to do
to win is show up.  That's always a recipe for disaster.

The St. John's game was the best of the season for the Jayhawks so far, having
played over 11 points above expectation, almost offsetting the dismal
performance against Dayton, when they played almost 12 points below expectation.
The Michigan State game was the second-best, and the rest worked out pretty
much as expected to within a possession or two, so the inconsistency value for
Kansas is better than the national average.  Trends and mental toughness values
simply aren't statistically significant at this point in the season.  I doubt
the teams are connected yet; we need 2 or 3 more games for them to become
well-connected.

Congratulations to the volleyball team for making the Sweet Sixteen!  Good
luck against Pittsburgh on Thursday.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     UTEP     KU      Defensive Stats     UTEP     KU
Points/Game         64.0    85.4     Opp Points/Game     63.6    69.4
Avg Score Margin    +0.4   +16.0     Opp Effective FG %  52.1    50.6
Assists/Game         9.2    17.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.8    11.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.6    36.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     20.2    23.9
Effective FG %      43.6    57.2     Blocks/Game          2.6     3.7
Off Rebound %       29.2    35.6     Steals/Game          7.8     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.314   0.302     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.4    16.3
Turnover %          16.3    12.5

My Stats Comparison        KU            UTEP
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.56           +0.10    
inconsistency          7.87            8.88    
trend                 -0.41 ± 1.62    -1.48 ± 3.13
mental toughness      +0.21 ± 0.42    +0.21 ± 0.62
average total pts      154.86         127.60    

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Souley Boum (guard)
most points        Souley Boum (guard)
most rebounds      Keonte Kennedy (guard)
most assists       Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most steals        Keonte Kennedy (guard)
most blocks        Tydus Verhoeven (forward)
most turnovers     Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most fouls         two-way tie

                                                           6-1            4-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          UTEP
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +21.16   84   63       94       #  3   # 49    #176   #187
Sagarin Predictor      +20.58   83   63       99.6     #  4   # 49    #169   #187 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +22.86   85   62                #  2   # 49    #204   #187 
Sagarin Recent Games   +21.94   84   62                #  5   # 49    #217   #187 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +25.42   86   60       96   
Massey                 +17.00   80   63       94       # 12   # 37    #173   #306
Pomeroy                +21.59   81   60                #  5   # 72    #163   #192
Greenfield             +19.50   81.5 62                #  6   # 13    #194   #274
Dunkel                 +26.50   78   51                # 25           #174                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +19.50   82   62                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +24.07   87   63       97.7     #  9   #  8    #223   #291
Real Time              +26.00   89   63       99.5     #  2   # 85    #277   #283 
Seven Overtimes        +26.00   84   58       92       #  1   # 14    #199   #307
DPPI                   +18.70   82   63       97.1     #  8   # 32    #158   #232 
ESPN BPI               +22.70                 96.7     #  5   # 52    #184   #349
Whitlock               +23.21                          #  6   # 15    #219   #334
Colley Matrix          +25.59                          # 18   # 50    #236   #241
NCAA NET                                               # 13           #232 
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #147*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +22.49   83.3 61.1     96.3
scatter                  2.86    2.9  3.3      2.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to
where it started, namely 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 17 Michigan State              87  74    +3.67    +9.33
HOME   #238 Tarleton State              88  62   +26.02    -0.02
HOME   #211 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +24.43    +4.57
NEUT   # 96 North Texas                 71  59   +13.67    -1.67
NEUT   # 62 Dayton                      73  74   +10.83   -11.83
NEUT   #103 Iona College                96  83   +14.15    -1.15
AWAY   # 71 St. John's                  95  75    +8.32   +11.68
HOME   #169 UTEP                                 +22.06             0.996
HOME   #166 Missouri                             +21.85             0.989
HOME   #144 Stephen F. Austin                    +20.25             0.983
AWAY   # 70 Colorado                              +8.29             0.807
HOME   #135 Harvard                              +19.83             0.981
HOME   # 90 TCU                                  +15.90             0.952
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +5.67             0.723
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                            +1.71             0.571
HOME   # 74 Iowa State                           +14.50             0.935
HOME   # 48 West Virginia                        +12.43             0.903
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                              +4.49             0.681
AWAY   # 82 Kansas State                          +9.18             0.831
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                            +7.65             0.788
HOME   # 20 Kentucky                              +7.27             0.776
AWAY   # 74 Iowa State                            +8.56             0.815
HOME   #  5 Baylor                                +3.04             0.625
AWAY   # 13 Texas                                 +0.51             0.521
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                             +10.43             0.862
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                       +11.61             0.888
AWAY   # 48 West Virginia                         +6.49             0.751
HOME   # 82 Kansas State                         +15.12             0.943
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                -2.90             0.381
AWAY   # 90 TCU                                   +9.96             0.851
HOME   # 13 Texas                                 +6.45             0.750

Here is UTEP's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        Western New Mexico          85  57
AWAY   # 91 New Mexico State            71  77    -9.12    +3.12
NAIA        Northern New Mexico         88  53
AWAY   #201 Pacific                     73  64    -1.17   +10.17
HOME   #157 UC Riverside                40  52    +2.16   -14.16
HOME   #318 Florida A&M                 67  53   +12.79    +1.21
HOME   # 91 New Mexico State            69  72    -3.18    +0.18
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -22.06             0.004