predictions for Texas game

What can I say?  Kansas was favored by 10 and lost by 19.  That's 29 points
below expectation.  For a team with an inconsistency rating of 9.3 points,
that's over three standard deviations, or to put it another way, it's a
result that should happen only about once a decade.  After the Sagarin
Predictor ratings adjustment following the game, it's only 26 points below
expectation, and now that the inconsistency has jumped to 11.4 points, it's
a result that should happen about every other year.  Still pretty rare.  But
it does make me wonder whether I should just stick with the national average
of 11 points inconsistency from the get-go, rather than computing it on a
per team basis.  The good news is that a repeat performance is, well, unlikely.
Then again, recall what Fraschilla has echoed from time to time:  you play
five games worse than you are, five games better than you are, and the rest
are who you are.  So far, we've only had three of those "worse than you are"
games.  With that in mind...

Sagarin gives Kansas a 10.1 point margin (deja vu), with an 81.2 percent
probability of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average
146.3 points per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 78, Texas 68.
Kansas has been playing 0.9 points above expectation, while Texas has been
playing 0.2 points above expectation, which means that the margin for Kansas
could be 10.8 points.  Kansas now has a strongly negative trend, while Texas
has a positive trend.  Both teams have virtually identical negative mental
toughness ratings, something that benefits Kansas a bit more than Texas.
Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas drops to 7.5 points.  Both teams
also have virtually identical inconsistency ratings.  Kansas has played three
out of seventeen Division I games below expectation by more than 10.1 points,
corresponding to a 17.6 percent chance of losing the game.  Meanwhile, Texas
has played just two out of eighteen games above expectation by more than 10.1
points, corresponding to an 11.1 percent chance of winning.  Those average to
a 14.4 percent chance of Kansas losing, a bit more optimistic than the
probability computed from the Sagarin ratings as shown above.  It is worth
noting that one of those three games in which Kansas played below expectation
by enough to lose was it's most recent game, and one of the two games in which
Texas played above expectation by enough to win was it's most recent game.  The
chances of a repeat occurrence for both teams seem remote.  But there is a one
in seven chance of just that happening.

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 82 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Texas 68, in
perfect agreement with Sagarin.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 5.7 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 1.7 units, which combine to a 7.4 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 68.8 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 5.1 points on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and the margin becomes 8.4 points.  The ratings suggest a score of
Kansas 76, Texas 68.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 78 to 66.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in five of eight categories; Texas gets a higher offensive rebound percentage,
attempts more free throws per field goal attempt, and has a lower turnover
percentage.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of
seven categories; Texas holds opponents to slightly fewer points per game, grabs
more offensive rebounds per game, and blocks more shots per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 4.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
11.5 points, so he is picking Texas against the spread.  With a total points
projection of 139, the implied final score is Kansas 72, Texas 67.  Meanwhile,
he claims the Vegas total is 144, which would imply a final score of Kansas 78,
Texas 66.

Real Time gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin with a final score of 87 to 72.  The
probability of winning the game is given as 76.1 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas an 8.4 point margin, with a 76.5 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 76, Texas 68.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 8.9 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 6.5 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by 9.7 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 3.2 points in favor of
Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage,
and Kansas has a 6.5 point margin.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin (deja vu), corresponding to a
75 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 77 to 70.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 9.5 point margin.

DPPI gives Kansas a 17.3 point margin.

There are four common opponents, all in conference:

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
UT   -8 TT  on road ( -4 neutral)
KU  +22 UT  at home (+18 neutral)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)
UT   -1 TCU on road ( +3 neutral)
KU   +4 UT  at home (  0 neutral)

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
UT   +5 OSU at home ( +1 neutral)
KU  -10 UT  at home (-14 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
UT   +7 WV  on road (+11 neutral)
KU  -14 UT  at home (-18 neutral)

Two of the comparions favor Kansas, two favor Texas.  The average is 0.5 points in
favor of Kansas, the most pessimistic of the prognostications.

Players to watch:  Guard Isaiah Taylor plays the most minutes, scores the most points,
dishes the most assists, and is their leading thief.  Center Cameron Ridley is their
leading rebounder and shot blocker, though he also commits the most turnovers and
personal fouls; unfortunately for the Longhorns, he is out for an indefinite amount
of time with a foot injury.  Guard Javan Felix is tied with Taylor for most steals.
Seems like Texas is fairly one-dimensional.  Control Taylor, and you control the game.

The average of the various prognostications is 9.5 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 78, Texas 68.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  9   #  6   #  5   # 11   +0.9   11.4   -0.67 +/- 0.56   -0.17 +/- 0.26
Texas          # 35   #  2   # 36   # 34   # 25   +0.2   11.4   +0.31 +/- 0.53   -0.19 +/- 0.27
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  8  #  7   # 10   # 16   #  3  #  3    #  2    #  2   #  9   #  4   #  6
Texas          # 33  #  3   # 34   #  5   # 35  # 11    # 54    # 41   #  1   # 27   #  3
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  9   #  9   #  9   # 10   #  5   #  4   #  8   0.996   15-3     #  2  # 17
Texas          # 30   # 28   # 35   # 31   # 14   # 26   # 32   0.891   12-6     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  8  # 10    #  8  # 35    # 19  # 69    # 13  # 19    #  6  # 13    #  4  #  5
Texas          # 35  #  1    # 37  #  1    # 37  #  1    # 46  #  2    # 40  #  5    # 29  #  3

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #306 Northern Colorado          109  72   +33.24    +3.76
NEUT   #  8 Michigan State              73  79    +0.76    -6.76
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 59 UCLA                        92  73    +9.89    +9.11
NEUT   # 17 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +2.21    +4.79
HOME   #284 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +30.71    +2.29
HOME   #108 Harvard                     75  69   +18.33   -12.33
HOME   #282 Holy Cross                  92  59   +30.64    +2.36
HOME   # 80 Oregon State                82  67   +14.83    +0.17
HOME   #173 Montana                     88  46   +23.06   +18.94
AWAY   # 77 San Diego State             70  57    +8.16    +4.84
HOME   # 86 UC Irvine                   78  53   +15.68    +9.32
HOME   # 24 Baylor                     102  74    +8.05   +19.95
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma                   109 106    +3.16    -0.16
AWAY   # 51 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.86    +4.14
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia               63  74    -4.01    -6.99
HOME   #124 TCU                         70  63   +19.43   -12.43
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma State              67  86    +7.22   -26.22
HOME   # 36 Texas                                +10.10             0.812
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                            +1.17             0.546
HOME   # 26 Kentucky                              +8.38             0.772
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                         +11.79             0.884
AWAY   #124 TCU                                  +12.91             0.888
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         +2.51             0.590
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -3.36             0.366
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma State                       +13.74             0.886
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                          +5.27             0.703
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                                +1.53             0.553
HOME   # 51 Texas Tech                           +12.38             0.912
AWAY   # 36 Texas                                 +3.58             0.623
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                            +7.69             0.776

Here is Texas' season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 66 Washington                  71  77    +3.83    -9.83
HOME   #174 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     67  56   +16.39    -5.39
NEUT   # 11 Texas A&M                   73  84    -5.46    -5.54
NEUT   # 66 Washington                  82  70    +3.83    +8.17
NEUT   # 21 Michigan                    72  78    -2.83    -3.17
HOME   # 62 Texas-Arlington             80  73    +6.62    +0.38
HOME   #210 Samford                     59  49   +18.84    -8.84
HOME   #336 UTSA                       116  50   +30.10   +35.90
HOME   #  7 North Carolina              84  82    -3.27    +5.27
HOME   #255 Appalachian State           67  55   +21.95    -9.95
AWAY   # 72 Stanford                    75  73    +0.90    +1.10
HOME   # 32 Connecticut                 66  71    +2.41    -7.41
AWAY   # 51 Texas Tech                  74  82    -0.98    -7.02
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                60  57    +4.95    -1.95
AWAY   #124 TCU                         57  58    +6.07    -7.07
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                  94  91    +0.85    +2.15
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma State              74  69    +6.90    -1.90
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia               56  49   -10.85   +17.85
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -10.10             0.188
HOME   #124 TCU                                  +12.59             0.882
HOME   # 17 Vanderbilt                            -1.37             0.449
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                                -5.31             0.323
HOME   # 51 Texas Tech                            +5.54             0.728
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                             -10.20             0.148
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                            -5.67             0.288
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         -4.33             0.347
HOME   # 24 Baylor                                +1.21             0.542
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                          -1.57             0.437
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma                              -3.68             0.353
HOME   #  6 Kansas                                -3.58             0.377
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma State                        +0.38             0.513