predictions for St. John's game

Kansas and St. John's have identical 5-1 records.  The Kansas record was earned
against the #89 schedule, while St. John's record was built against the #355
schedule, and that is out of 358 Division I teams.  The only real test for the
Red Storm was at Indiana, where they lost by just 2 points, playing 4.56 points
above expectation in the process.  They opened against the worst team in
Division I and crushed Mississippi Valley State by 58 points, playing more than
23 points above expectation.  Yet against an almost equally weak St. Francis
squad, they played over 16 points below expectation.  So the question is, which
St. John's team will show up to play on Friday?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  RealTime is not ready for Prime
Time.  Usually RealTime uses an enormous home court advantage, and if that is
still the case, then the predicted 23 point win for Kansas is that much harder
to understand.  That's the most optimistic prediction by a factor of two.
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is the only other margin in double digits.
The rest all pick Kansas to win, though Dunkel has it by a single point, as
does Seven Overtimes.  A 1-point margin suggests a nearly 50 percent
probability of winning the game, yet Seven Overtimes has Kansas at having a
72 percent chance of winning the game.  Very strange.  Or is his "confidence"
defined differently?  The BPI is close behind with Kansas favored by a mere
2 points.

The average margin is 6.5 points, precisely in line with Vegas and Greenfield,
who agree with each other more often than not.  St. John's has played higher
scoring games, but against weak competition.  Their game with Indiana was in
the 70s.  I'll be surprised if Kansas doesn't reach the 80 point mark.

Hey, after the St. John's game is finished, head over to ESPN+ and catch
the volleyball team in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against the
Creighton Blue Jays.  Kansas swept a ranked Oregon team in the first round
yesterday, while Creighton swept Ole Miss.  Oregon was actually ranked a
spot ahead of Creighton, though Oregon was only 22-8 while Creighton was
30-3.  And Creighton is hosting the sub-regional, so they'll have the
home court advantage, but the Jayhawks are on a roll at the moment, so I'd
say it should be a decent match.  Hoops at 6 p.m. Central, and volleyball
at 7 p.m. Central, so a fair bit of overlap.  Split screen, anyone?
Picture in picture mode?

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     St.J     KU      Defensive Stats     St.J     KU
Points/Game         87.3    81.4     Opp Points/Game     69.8    65.6
Avg Score Margin   +17.5   +15.8     Opp Effective FG %  47.3    48.0
Assists/Game        21.5    16.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.8     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.5    33.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.5    23.8
Effective FG %      57.0    57.3     Blocks/Game          6.3     4.2
Off Rebound %       33.7    29.0     Steals/Game         10.2     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.325   0.297     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.8    14.2
Turnover %          17.6    12.8

My Stats Comparison        KU            St.J
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.35           -0.04    
inconsistency          8.05           14.51    
trend                 -3.14 ± 1.47    -6.95 ± 1.72
mental toughness      +0.06 ± 0.52    -0.16 ± 0.53
average total pts      152.33         157.17    

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Julian Champagnie (guard)
most points        Julian Champagnie (guard)
most rebounds      Julian Champagnie (guard)
most assists       Posh Alexander (guard)
most steals        Posh Alexander (guard)
most blocks        Joel Soriano (center)
most turnovers     Posh Alexander (guard)
most fouls         Joel Soriano (center)

Rafael Pinzon, a reserve guard eighth on the team in minutes played, didn't
play in the most recent game due to an injured finger.  Unknown if he'll be
available to play against Kansas.

                                                           5-1            5-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       St. John's  
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.96   83   77       71       #  4   # 89    # 54   #355
Sagarin Predictor       +6.11   83   77       69.9     #  3   # 89    # 53   #355 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.70   83   77                #  4   # 89    # 55   #355 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.24   83   78                #  7   # 89    # 71   #355 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +11.09   86   75       82   
Massey                  +4.00   81   77       64       # 21   # 53    # 67   #285
Pomeroy                 +6.82   81   74                #  5   # 97    # 55   #356
Greenfield              +6.50   82   75                # 10   # 21    # 54   #157
Dunkel                  +1.00   77   76                # 28           # 45                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   82   75                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +7.24   87   80       71.5     # 10   # 12    # 80   #250
Real Time              +23.00   90   67       97.5     #  3   #122    #167   #353 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   78   77       72       #  6   # 18    # 78   #352
DPPI                    +9.20                 77       #      #       # 85   #332 
ESPN BPI                +2.10                 57.4     #  7   # 90    # 49   #301
Whitlock                +2.02*                         # 19*  #       # 63*  #   
Colley Matrix           +3.31                          # 33   #131    #101   #344
NCAA NET                                               # 17*          # 69*
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       # 46*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +6.54   82.8 75.8     73.6
scatter                  5.17    3.3  3.1     11.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to
where it started, namely 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 16 Michigan State              87  74    +3.01    +9.99
HOME   #211 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.43    +1.57
HOME   #175 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +22.40    +6.60
NEUT   # 99 North Texas                 71  59   +13.27    -1.27
NEUT   # 86 Dayton                      73  74   +12.23   -13.23
NEUT   #113 Iona College                96  83   +14.56    -1.56
AWAY   # 53 St. John's                            +6.11             0.699
HOME   #174 UTEP                                 +22.39             0.990
HOME   #151 Missouri                             +20.96             0.985
HOME   #143 Stephen F. Austin                    +20.11             0.982
AWAY   # 65 Colorado                              +6.92             0.764
HOME   #120 Harvard                              +19.00             0.976
HOME   #100 TCU                                  +16.83             0.960
AWAY   # 40 Oklahoma State                        +4.22             0.669
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                            +0.76             0.531
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                           +15.25             0.943
HOME   # 50 West Virginia                        +12.34             0.900
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                              +3.51             0.642
AWAY   # 98 Kansas State                          +9.65             0.842
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                            +7.76             0.790
HOME   # 17 Kentucky                              +7.04             0.767
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                            +8.25             0.804
HOME   #  4 Baylor                                +3.63             0.647
AWAY   # 13 Texas                                 -0.64             0.474
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                             +10.51             0.862
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma State                       +11.22             0.878
AWAY   # 50 West Virginia                         +5.34             0.710
HOME   # 98 Kansas State                         +16.65             0.958
AWAY   #  4 Baylor                                -3.37             0.363
AWAY   #100 TCU                                   +9.83             0.846
HOME   # 13 Texas                                 +6.36             0.745

Here is St. John's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #358 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)     119  61   +34.30   +23.70
HOME   #217 Saint Peter's               91  70   +15.06    +5.94
AWAY   # 33 Indiana                     74  76    -6.56    +4.56
HOME   #320 Fairleigh Dickinson         87  74   +22.21    -9.21
HOME   #326 St. Francis-NY              76  70   +22.58   -16.58
HOME   #251 NJIT(New Jersey Tech)       77  68   +17.65    -8.65
HOME   #  3 Kansas                                -6.11             0.301