predictions for Iona game

These tip-offs just keep getting earlier and earlier.  Fortunately,
Sagarin was a bit more timely this time around.  However, Colley hasn't
updated his ratings since November 22.  And Real-Time hasn't updated
the Kansas schedule to include the second- and third-round TBD opponents.

The season projection dropped by two wins.  The low-probability loss to
Dayton accounts for one of them; the adjustments to the ratings account
for the other.

I wouldn't dismiss a sense of payback for the 2019 Maui Invitational loss
to Kansas as contributing to Friday's outcome, but for the most part, it
was Kansas shooting itself in the foot with lousy performance at the charity
stripe, and Braun's technical proved costly as well.  Anybody know what he
was T'd up for?  At first, the commentators thought it was for hanging on
the rim, but later changed their minds when the replay showed Braun's
finger pointing.  I thought he was just acknowledging a teammate's assist,
but was he instead pointing at a Dayton player?  Or did he say something
the refs didn't like?  Inquiring minds want to know.

Anyway, the prognosticators are nearly unanimous that Kansas should beat
Iona.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is the odd man out, predicting a
12 point loss.  Dunkel is the most optimistic at 16.5 points.  The average
margin is 9.3 points, with a scatter of 7.3 points.

Kansas has gone from its most above expectation performance in the first
game to the most below expectation performance in the most recent game,
leading to a large and statistically significant negative trend.  Now
would be a good time to reverse that.

It wasn't a good week for the top teams.  #1 lost on Friday, #2 lost
earlier in the week, and #3 (in the Coaches poll) also lost on Friday,
so expect lots of changes in the human polls as of Monday.

Time to post this and get a few hours of sleep before tip-off.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Iona     KU      Defensive Stats     Iona     KU
Points/Game         72.7    81.4     Opp Points/Game     67.0    65.6
Avg Score Margin    +5.7   +15.8     Opp Effective FG %  44.1    48.0
Assists/Game        14.6    16.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.1     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.7    33.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.9    23.8
Effective FG %      47.0    57.3     Blocks/Game          7.0     4.2
Off Rebound %       29.1    29.0     Steals/Game          5.4     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.429   0.297     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.9    14.2
Turnover %          15.6    12.8

My Stats Comparison        KU            Iona
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.10           +3.71    
inconsistency          9.63            5.90    
trend                 -5.34 ± 1.68    +0.28 ± 1.21
mental toughness      +0.20 ± 0.58    +0.33 ± 0.31
average total pts      147.00         139.71    

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tyaon Jolly (guard)
most points        Nelly Junior Joseph (forward)
most rebounds      Nelly Junior Joseph (forward)
most assists       Dylan Van Eyck (forward)
most steals        Berrick JeanLouis (guard)
most blocks        Nelly Junior Joseph (forward)
most turnovers     Dylan Van Eyck (forward)
most fouls         Nelly Junior Joseph (forward)

                                                           4-1            6-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Iona    
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +13.33   79   65.5     86       #  7   #155    #105   #150
Sagarin Predictor      +13.73   79   65       95.7     #  7   #155    #113   #150 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +13.08   79   66                #  5   #155    #102   #150 
Sagarin Recent Games    +7.41   76   68                # 12   #155    # 64   #150 
Sagarin Eigenvector    -11.82   66   78       16   
Massey                 +10.00   75   65       82       # 23   # 87    # 84   # 84
Pomeroy                +15.59   77   61                #  4   #139    #125   #163
Greenfield             +13.50   77.5 64                # 12   # 28    #100   # 80
Dunkel                 +16.50   80   64                # 26           # 67                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.50   78   64                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +13.41   81   67       86.7     # 14   # 27    # 89   # 81
Real Time              +  .                            #  9   #306    # 66   #237 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   75   68       69       #  9   # 33    #121   #169
DPPI                    +4.64   71   67       64.7     # 21   #       # 78   #    
ESPN BPI                +8.50                 77.5     #  7   #139    # 68   #163
Whitlock               +12.49*                         # 19*  #       #146*  #   
Colley Matrix           +0.99                          # 31   #241    # 39   #339
NCAA NET                                               # 17*          #141*
LRMC                                                   # 15*  #       #237*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9.29   76.4 66.3     72.2
scatter                  7.27    4.1  4.0     24.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is down to 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 16 Michigan State              87  74    +2.01   +10.99
HOME   #245 Tarleton State              88  62   +25.60    +0.40
HOME   #219 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +23.59    +5.41
NEUT   #109 North Texas                 71  59   +13.53    -1.53
NEUT   #114 Dayton                      73  74   +13.77   -14.77
NEUT   #113 Iona College                         +13.73             0.957
AWAY   # 63 St. John's                            +6.22             0.726
HOME   #168 UTEP                                 +20.92             0.979
HOME   #129 Missouri                             +18.11             0.960
HOME   #119 Stephen F. Austin                    +17.35             0.953
AWAY   # 71 Colorado                              +6.58             0.738
HOME   #107 Harvard                              +16.48             0.945
HOME   # 93 TCU                                  +14.91             0.925
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma State                        +2.39             0.591
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +0.41             0.516
HOME   # 67 Iowa State                           +12.58             0.888
HOME   # 45 West Virginia                        +10.86             0.853
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma                              +4.30             0.661
AWAY   #124 Kansas State                         +11.67             0.871
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                            +6.49             0.735
HOME   # 14 Kentucky                              +4.55             0.670
AWAY   # 67 Iowa State                            +6.50             0.735
HOME   #  4 Baylor                                +1.87             0.572
AWAY   # 12 Texas                                 -1.80             0.431
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma                             +10.38             0.842
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma State                        +8.47             0.794
AWAY   # 45 West Virginia                         +4.78             0.678
HOME   #124 Kansas State                         +17.75             0.957
AWAY   #  4 Baylor                                -4.21             0.342
AWAY   # 93 TCU                                   +8.83             0.804
HOME   # 12 Texas                                 +4.28             0.661

Here is Iona's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #176 Appalachian State           65  53    +7.78    +4.22
HOME   #107 Harvard                     90  87    +2.75    +0.25
HOME   #126 Hofstra                     82  74    +4.12    +3.88
NEUT   #148 Liberty                     54  50    +2.55    +1.45
NEUT   #292 North Alabama               81  65   +11.84    +4.16
NEUT   # 17 Alabama                     72  68   -11.52   +15.52
NEUT   # 77 Belmont                     65  72    -3.52    -3.48
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                               -13.73             0.043