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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Dayton game
- asteroid
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3 years 18 hours ago #27767
by asteroid
This is not your 2019 Maui Invitational Dayton team. But they are hard to figure.
The Flyers have lost to three teams ranked in the 200s, at home, no less, playing
as much as 24 points below expectation in the process, yet they somehow managed to
beat the #100 team on a neutral court, and rather easily at that, playing 21 points
above expectation in the process. The Flyers' inconsistency rating is a massive
17.1 points.
Today's tip is an hour earlier than yesterday's, and those prognosticators who have
yet to update their tournament brackets don't even have a prediction up yet. Once
again, Dunkel beat Sagarin to the punch line. So once again I'm going to post what
I have, and try to get an update before tip-off. The Sagarin Predictor prediction
is based on yesterday's ratings.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Day KU Defensive Stats Day KU
Points/Game 67.6 83.5 Opp Points/Game 67.6 63.5
Avg Score Margin 0.0 +20.0 Opp Effective FG % 50.4 45.8
Assists/Game 11.4 17.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.4 8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.0 36.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.4 26.5
Effective FG % 52.0 58.2 Blocks/Game 4.0 4.8
Off Rebound % 26.6 27.4 Steals/Game 5.2 5.3
FTA/FGA 0.404 0.288 Personal Fouls/Gm 13.4 13.5
Turnover % 18.2 13.7
My Stats Comparison KU Day
=================== ============= ============
performance +3.13 -4.76
inconsistency 5.46 17.31
trend -3.24 ± 1.92 +2.97 ± 6.08
mental toughness +0.28 ± 0.32 +2.33 ± 1.22
average total pts 147.00 135.20
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Toumani Camara (forward)
most points two-way tie
most rebounds Toumani Camara (forward)
most assists Malachi Smith (guard)
most steals Toumani Camara (forward)
most blocks DaRon Holmes II (forward)
most turnovers Elijah Weaver (guard)
most fouls Toumani Camara (forward)
4-0 2-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Dayton
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + . # 2 #197 #113 #240
Sagarin Predictor +19.04 93.1 # 2 #197 #107 #240
Sagarin Golden Mean + . # 2 #197 #135 #240
Sagarin Recent Games + . # 3 #197 #119 #240
Sagarin Eigenvector + .
Massey +12.00 76 64 88 # 6 # 90 #186 #209
Pomeroy +15.39 74 59 # 2 #158 #119 #320
Greenfield +15.00 76 61 # 5 # 16 #156 #252
Dunkel +18.50 80 61 # 20 #127
Vegas (via Dunkel) +15.00 75.5 60.5
Dolphin Predictive +14.94 81 66 89.0 # 7 # 4 #159 #311
Real Time + . # 2 #280 #314 #268
Seven Overtimes +5.00 72 67 62 # 8 # 66 #158 #244
DPPI +25.10 82 57 95.7 # 4 #120 #193 #306
ESPN BPI + . # 4 #126 #157 #350
Whitlock +7.91* # 19* # # 88* #
Colley Matrix +23.92 # 31 #241 #283 #235
NCAA NET # 17* # 90*
LRMC # 15* # # 84* #
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +14.48 74.4 59.8 86.6
scatter 5.76 4.1 4.0 5.9
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 26-5,
partially due to Alabama no longer being a potential oppoennt:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 14 Michigan State 87 74 +3.20 +9.80
HOME #228 Tarleton State 88 62 +25.73 +0.27
HOME #196 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +23.93 +5.07
NEUT #107 North Texas 71 59 +14.61 -2.61
NEUT #162 Dayton +19.04 0.931
NEUT # 92 Belmont +13.36 0.938
NEUT #128 Iona College +16.62 0.972
AWAY # 53 St. John's +6.63 0.777
HOME #169 UTEP +22.41 0.995
HOME #130 Missouri +19.51 0.988
HOME #118 Stephen F. Austin +18.61 0.984
AWAY # 63 Colorado +7.52 0.807
HOME #132 Harvard +19.62 0.988
HOME #102 TCU +17.18 0.976
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma State +3.55 0.659
AWAY # 20 Texas Tech +1.63 0.574
HOME # 90 Iowa State +15.88 0.966
HOME # 34 West Virginia +10.23 0.881
AWAY # 39 Oklahoma +5.28 0.728
AWAY #124 Kansas State +13.50 0.940
HOME # 20 Texas Tech +7.29 0.799
HOME # 18 Kentucky +6.87 0.786
AWAY # 90 Iowa State +10.22 0.880
HOME # 7 Baylor +4.51 0.698
AWAY # 9 Texas -0.34 0.484
HOME # 39 Oklahoma +10.94 0.896
HOME # 31 Oklahoma State +9.21 0.856
AWAY # 34 West Virginia +4.57 0.701
HOME #124 Kansas State +19.16 0.986
AWAY # 7 Baylor -1.15 0.447
AWAY #102 TCU +11.52 0.908
HOME # 9 Texas +5.32 0.730
Here is Dayton's season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #248 Illinois-Chicago 64 54 +7.84 +2.16
HOME #226 UMass Lowell 58 59 +6.38 -7.38
HOME #208 Lipscomb 59 78 +5.42 -24.42
HOME #266 Austin Peay 81 87 +8.97 -14.97
NEUT #100 Miami-Florida 76 60 -4.80 +20.80
NEUT # 2 Kansas -19.04 0.069
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk
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- asteroid
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3 years 16 hours ago #27768
by asteroid
This is not your 2019 Maui Invitational Dayton team. But they are hard to figure.
The Flyers have lost to three teams ranked in the 200s, at home, no less, playing
as much as 24 points below expectation in the process, yet they somehow managed to
beat the #100 team on a neutral court, and rather easily at that, playing 21 points
above expectation in the process. The Flyers' inconsistency rating is a massive
16.6 points.
The tables below have been updated to include Sagarin's latest predictions and
ratings, as well as the BPI's prediction.
The trend for Kansas is negative because the Jayhawks have yet to duplicate the
level of success they had against Michigan State. Meanwhile, the trend for Dayton
is positive because they lost so badly to Lipscomb and Austin Peay in their previous
two games, and then beat Miami so badly in their most recent game.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Day KU Defensive Stats Day KU
Points/Game 67.6 83.5 Opp Points/Game 67.6 63.5
Avg Score Margin 0.0 +20.0 Opp Effective FG % 50.4 45.8
Assists/Game 11.4 17.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.4 8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.0 36.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.4 26.5
Effective FG % 52.0 58.2 Blocks/Game 4.0 4.8
Off Rebound % 26.6 27.4 Steals/Game 5.2 5.3
FTA/FGA 0.404 0.288 Personal Fouls/Gm 13.4 13.5
Turnover % 18.2 13.7
My Stats Comparison KU Day
=================== ============= ============
performance +3.33 -6.50
inconsistency 5.49 16.59
trend -3.15 ± 2.02 +2.54 ± 5.88
mental toughness +0.30 ± 0.29 +2.57 ± 1.47
average total pts 147.00 135.20
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Toumani Camara (forward)
most points two-way tie
most rebounds Toumani Camara (forward)
most assists Malachi Smith (guard)
most steals Toumani Camara (forward)
most blocks DaRon Holmes II (forward)
most turnovers Elijah Weaver (guard)
most fouls Toumani Camara (forward)
4-0 2-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Dayton
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +17.72 77 59 91 # 2 #154 #144 #306
Sagarin Predictor +17.33 77 60 92.0 # 2 #154 #142 #306
Sagarin Golden Mean +18.60 78 59 # 2 #154 #142 #306
Sagarin Recent Games +20.56 79 58 # 3 #154 #190 #306
Sagarin Eigenvector +8.22 72 64 76
Massey +12.00 76 64 88 # 6 # 90 #186 #209
Pomeroy +15.39 74 59 # 2 #158 #119 #320
Greenfield +15.00 76 61 # 5 # 16 #156 #252
Dunkel +18.50 80 61 # 20 #127
Vegas (via Dunkel) +15.00 75.5 60.5
Dolphin Predictive +14.94 81 66 89.0 # 7 # 4 #159 #311
Real Time + . # 2 #280 #314 #268
Seven Overtimes +5.00 72 67 62 # 8 # 66 #158 #244
DPPI +25.10 82 57 95.7 # 4 #120 #193 #306
ESPN BPI +13.60 89.2 # 4 #126 #157 #350
Whitlock +7.91* # 19* # # 88* #
Colley Matrix +23.92 # 31 #241 #283 #235
NCAA NET # 17* # 90*
LRMC # 15* # # 84* #
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +16.06 76.9 61.2 85.4
scatter 5.28 3.1 3.1 11.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 26-5,
partially due to Alabama no longer being a potential opponent:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 11 Michigan State 87 74 +2.64 +10.36
HOME #233 Tarleton State 88 62 +26.12 -0.12
HOME #201 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +24.09 +4.91
NEUT #100 North Texas 71 59 +13.83 -1.83
NEUT #142 Dayton +17.33 0.920
NEUT # 78 Belmont +11.48 0.907
NEUT #113 Iona College +15.58 or 0.963
AWAY # 49 St. John's +6.34 0.767
HOME #167 UTEP +22.39 0.995
HOME #128 Missouri +19.36 0.987
HOME #114 Stephen F. Austin +18.46 0.983
AWAY # 64 Colorado +7.62 0.810
HOME #134 Harvard +19.60 0.988
HOME #102 TCU +16.98 0.975
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma State +3.29 0.647
AWAY # 19 Texas Tech +1.43 0.565
HOME # 91 Iowa State +15.82 0.966
HOME # 34 West Virginia +10.25 0.881
AWAY # 37 Oklahoma +5.22 0.726
AWAY #125 Kansas State +13.51 0.940
HOME # 19 Texas Tech +7.13 0.794
HOME # 18 Kentucky +6.81 0.783
AWAY # 91 Iowa State +10.12 0.878
HOME # 6 Baylor +4.30 0.690
AWAY # 10 Texas -0.46 0.479
HOME # 37 Oklahoma +10.92 0.895
HOME # 31 Oklahoma State +8.99 0.849
AWAY # 34 West Virginia +4.55 0.700
HOME #125 Kansas State +19.21 0.986
AWAY # 6 Baylor -1.40 0.436
AWAY #102 TCU +11.28 0.903
HOME # 10 Texas +5.24 0.727
Here is Dayton's season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #244 Illinois-Chicago 64 54 +9.27 +0.73
HOME #210 UMass Lowell 58 59 +7.34 -8.34
HOME #205 Lipscomb 59 78 +7.07 -26.07
HOME #255 Austin Peay 81 87 +10.19 -16.19
NEUT #119 Miami-Florida 76 60 -1.35 +17.35
NEUT # 2 Kansas -17.33 0.080
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Socalhawk
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