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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for North Texas game
- asteroid
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3 years 1 day ago #27754
by asteroid
First, a correction. I didn't have the home flag set for Pomeroy's predictions
these last two games, so the predicted margins were about 3 points less than
they should have been.
Second, Andy Dolphin is now on board for this season. Seems a little earlier than
usual.
Third, Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
Fourth, it's a relatively early tip, and I've been staying up, waiting for
Sagarin to post his latest ratings and predictions for Thursday's games.
Alas, he's taking his sweet time doing so. Even Dunkel, historically the
slowest of the bunch, has beat him to it. But I need to get some sleep
before the game, so I'm going to post what I have, and might update things
before tip-off if I have the time to do so.
North Texas' two Division I games have been low-scoring affairs, so most
predictions have Kansas being kept to the 70s. With Wilson back, and how he
can make the team play even faster, I think there will be more possessions
and a higher score. Take the over.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UNT KU Defensive Stats UNT KU
Points/Game 65.0 87.7 Opp Points/Game 52.5 65.0
Avg Score Margin +12.5 +22.7 Opp Effective FG % 45.7 46.7
Assists/Game 11.5 18.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.5 9.7
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.5 37.3 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.0 26.0
Effective FG % 43.2 58.6 Blocks/Game 1.5 6.3
Off Rebound % 30.4 30.2 Steals/Game 8.0 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.436 0.266 Personal Fouls/Gm 18.0 12.7
Turnover % 13.2 11.8
My Stats Comparison KU SB
=================== ============= ============
performance +5.02 +7.15
inconsistency 5.64 12.12
trend -1.43 ± 5.46 +17.14 ± .
mental toughness +0.37 ± 0.25 -1.24 ± .
average total pts 152.67 117.50
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Rubin Jones (guard)
most points Tylor Perry (guard)
most rebounds Thomas Bell (forward)
most assists Rubin Jones (guard)
most steals Tylor Perry (guard)
most blocks four-way tie
most turnovers Thomas Bell (forward)
most fouls three-way tie
3-0 2-1
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas North Texas
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall + . # 2 #133 #170 # 56
Sagarin Predictor + . # 2 #133 #168 # 56
Sagarin Golden Mean + . # 2 #133 #180 # 56
Sagarin Recent Games + . # 1 #133 #184 # 56
Sagarin Eigenvector + .
Massey +10.00 73 63 84 # 7 #145 #117 #287
Pomeroy +14.83 70 55 # 2 #181 #116 #266
Greenfield +14.50 73 58 # 4 # 13 #114 #258
Dunkel +6.00 71 65 # 30 # 76
Vegas (via Dunkel) +13.50 72 58
Dolphin Predictive +14.46 76 62 88.9 # 7 # 4 #116 #262
Real Time +33.00 86 53 95.7 # 2 #280 #293 #352
Seven Overtimes +11.00 73 62 75 # 26 # 44 # 34 #175
DPPI +12.10 80 68 88.2 # 5 #202 # 96 #230
ESPN BPI +10.80 86.2 # 5 #127 #118 #331
Whitlock +6.90* # 19* # # 78* #
Colley Matrix +16.87 # 31 #241 #208 #312
NCAA NET # 17* # 55*
LRMS # 15* # # 89* #
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is up to 26-5:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 12 Michigan State 87 74 +3.39 +9.61
HOME #254 Tarleton State 88 62 +27.28 -1.28
HOME #168 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +22.26 +6.74
NEUT #120 North Texas +15.83 0.925
NEUT #128 Dayton +16.61 0.934
NEUT #105 Miami-Florida +14.42 0.905
NEUT # 19 Alabama +4.34 0.653
NEUT # 79 Belmont +11.90 0.860
NEUT # 55 Drake +9.69 0.811
NEUT #146 Iona College +17.76 0.947
AWAY # 30 St. John's +3.41 0.622
HOME #172 UTEP +22.58 0.980
HOME #103 Missouri +17.60 0.945
HOME #143 Stephen F. Austin +20.73 0.970
AWAY # 41 Colorado +4.13 0.646
HOME #116 Harvard +18.72 0.956
HOME # 62 TCU +13.98 0.898
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State +3.67 0.631
AWAY # 22 Texas Tech +1.70 0.561
HOME #122 Iowa State +19.14 0.959
HOME # 35 West Virginia +10.23 0.824
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma +3.41 0.622
AWAY #107 Kansas State +11.34 0.849
HOME # 22 Texas Tech +8.14 0.770
HOME # 15 Kentucky +6.90 0.735
AWAY #122 Iowa State +12.70 0.876
HOME # 6 Baylor +5.20 0.682
AWAY # 16 Texas +0.70 0.525
HOME # 31 Oklahoma +9.85 0.815
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State +10.11 0.821
AWAY # 35 West Virginia +3.79 0.635
HOME #107 Kansas State +17.78 0.947
AWAY # 6 Baylor -1.24 0.455
AWAY # 62 TCU +7.54 0.753
HOME # 16 Texas +7.14 0.742
Here is North Texas' season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
Div2 Oklahoma Christian 84 53
HOME # 65 Buffalo 66 69 -1.58 -1.42
HOME #271 UT Arlington 64 36 +12.28 +15.72
NEUT # 2 Kansas -15.83 0.075
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Socalhawk, jaythawk1
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- asteroid
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3 years 1 day ago #27757
by asteroid
The updated predictions table:
3-0 2-1
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas North Texas
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +15.44 74 58 89 # 2 #197 #113 #240
Sagarin Predictor +14.60 73 59 90.8 # 2 #197 #107 #240
Sagarin Golden Mean +17.98 75 57 # 2 #197 #135 #240
Sagarin Recent Games +15.50 74 58 # 3 #197 #119 #240
Sagarin Eigenvector +11.15 72 61 82
Massey +10.00 73 63 84 # 7 #145 #117 #287
Pomeroy +14.83 70 55 # 2 #181 #116 #266
Greenfield +14.50 73 58 # 4 # 13 #114 #258
Dunkel +6.00 71 65 # 30 # 76
Vegas (via Dunkel) +13.50 72 58
Dolphin Predictive +14.46 76 62 88.9 # 7 # 4 #116 #262
Real Time +33.00 86 53 95.7 # 2 #280 #293 #352
Seven Overtimes +11.00 73 62 75 # 26 # 44 # 34 #175
DPPI +12.10 80 68 88.2 # 5 #202 # 96 #230
ESPN BPI +10.80 86.2 # 5 #127 #118 #331
Whitlock +6.90* # 19* # # 78* #
Colley Matrix +16.87 # 31 #241 #208 #312
NCAA NET # 17* # 55*
LRMS # 15* # # 89* #
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +14.48 74.4 59.8 86.6
scatter 5.76 4.1 4.0 5.9
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back to 25-6,
with the Texas road game now a newly projected loss, though a toss-up in
regulation:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 14 Michigan State 87 74 +3.20 +9.80
HOME #228 Tarleton State 88 62 +25.73 +0.27
HOME #196 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +23.93 +5.07
NEUT #107 North Texas +14.61 0.908
NEUT #100 Miami-Florida +14.24 0.902
NEUT #162 Dayton +19.04 or 0.958
NEUT # 13 Alabama +3.12 0.612
NEUT # 47 Drake +8.96 or 0.792
NEUT # 92 Belmont +13.36 or 0.888
NEUT #128 Iona College +16.62 or 0.935
AWAY # 53 St. John's +6.63 0.727
HOME #169 UTEP +22.41 0.979
HOME #130 Missouri +19.51 0.962
HOME #118 Stephen F. Austin +18.61 0.955
AWAY # 63 Colorado +7.52 0.753
HOME #132 Harvard +19.62 0.963
HOME #102 TCU +17.18 0.941
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma State +3.55 0.627
AWAY # 20 Texas Tech +1.63 0.559
HOME # 90 Iowa State +15.88 0.926
HOME # 34 West Virginia +10.23 0.824
AWAY # 39 Oklahoma +5.28 0.684
AWAY #124 Kansas State +13.50 0.890
HOME # 20 Texas Tech +7.29 0.746
HOME # 18 Kentucky +6.87 0.734
AWAY # 90 Iowa State +10.22 0.824
HOME # 7 Baylor +4.51 0.659
AWAY # 9 Texas -0.34 0.488
HOME # 39 Oklahoma +10.94 0.840
HOME # 31 Oklahoma State +9.21 0.799
AWAY # 34 West Virginia +4.57 0.661
HOME #124 Kansas State +19.16 0.959
AWAY # 7 Baylor -1.15 0.458
AWAY #102 TCU +11.52 0.853
HOME # 9 Texas +5.32 0.686
Here is North Texas' season-to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
Div2 Oklahoma Christian 84 53
HOME # 65 Buffalo 66 69 -1.09 -1.91
HOME #269 UT Arlington 64 36 +13.65 +14.35
NEUT # 2 Kansas -14.61 0.092
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, jaythawk1
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