predictions for Stony Brook game

It's still early, but the ratings have changed by enough that the projected season
record has improved by enough of a fractional game to now round up to 26-5.

Colley is now on board for this season, though I'm still using the scaling factor
from last season because the ratings can be a little wonky this early in the
season.  I use the ratings for the top and bottom teams, in comparison to Sagarin,
whose ratings units are points, to determine the scaling factor.  I'll probably
wait until the teams are well-connected in mid-December before updating the
scaling factor.

DPPI is also sort-of on board, though Don Davis had to coax it into producing a
prediction with so little information available from this season to go on.

The Whitlock prediction is still based on last season's ratings, but it's still
within the range of the other prognosticators.

The average of the various predictions is a bit over 22 points.  Not everyone
also predicts total points, so the average predicted score doesn't reflect the
same margin, but we're looking at something around 82 or 83 to 59.  Seven Overtimes
sticks out like a sore thumb with a prediction of only 74 points for Kansas.
Everyone else has the Jayhawks scoring in the low to mid 80s.  I think it'll be
in the high 80s, just because both previous games were in the high 80s despite
the vastly different strengths of the opponents.  Stony Brook's single game was
a low-scoring affair, which is probably responsible for keeping total score
predictions on the lower side.  I suspect we'll see a repeat of the Tarleton
State game, in which the pace of scoring really picked up toward the end of the
game, possibly because the Jayhawks ease up on the defensive pressure once the
victory is secure.

Looking at the team stats, Kansas has the advantage in all but two.  Stony
Brook commits fewer fouls per game, but Kansas has the bench depth for fouls
not to be an issue.  Also, Stony Brook apparently doesn't force foul situations,
with a paltry 0.062 free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  The one stat in
which Stong Brook really excels is their 8 steals per game (though based on a
single game).  They could be pesky.

I'm also showing my stats, though fitting straight lines to two data points
(for Kansas) is fraught with uncertainties, and downright impossible with
just one data point (for Stony Brook), so feel free to not even pay attention
to them.

Wishing you clear skies to enjoy tonight's nearly total lunar eclipse!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      SB      KU      Defensive Stats      SB      KU
Points/Game         52.0    87.5     Opp Points/Game     74.0    68.0
Avg Score Margin   -22.0   +19.5     Opp Effective FG %  58.2    47.2
Assists/Game         2.0    18.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      5.0     8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   31.0    35.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     19.0    25.0
Effective FG %      39.1    59.4     Blocks/Game          1.0     7.5
Off Rebound %       13.9    28.8     Steals/Game          8.0     5.5
FTA/FGA            0.062   0.336     Personal Fouls/Gm   10.0    14.5
Turnover %          15.7    13.4

My Stats Comparison        KU            SB
===================   =============   ============
performance           +4.17          -10.70    
inconsistency          7.70             .      
trend                -10.89 ±  .        .   ±  .  
mental toughness      +0.46 ±  .        .   ±  .  
average total pts      155.50         126.00    

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       two-way tie
most points        Jahlil Jenkins (guard)
most rebounds      Tykel Greene (guard)
most assists       two-way tie
most steals        Jahlil Jenkins (guard)
most blocks        Mohamed Diallo (forward)
most turnovers     Jahlil Jenkins (guard)
most fouls         three-way tie

Asterisks in the rankings mean the numbers were taken from last season.

                                                           2-0            0-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Stony Brook 
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +22.57   83   60       95       #  2   #133    #170   # 56
Sagarin Predictor      +22.26   83   61       97.8     #  2   #133    #168   # 56 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +23.35   83   60       95       #  2   #133    #180   # 56 
Sagarin Recent Games   +23.72   84   60       95       #  1   #133    #184   # 56 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +20.04   82   62       93   
Massey                 +22.00   80   58       97       # 10   # 87    #263   # 20
Pomeroy                +22.26   81   59                #  2   #113    #200   #104
Greenfield             +25.50   85   60                #  4   # 12    #207   # 23
Dunkel                 +20.50   83   63                #  8           #281                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +25.50   84   59                                          
Dolphin Predictive        .                            # 28*  #       #213*  #   
Real Time              +29.00   85   56       93.0     #  3   #279    #230   # 16 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   74   60       79       # 20   # 20    #277   # 87
DPPI                   +35.20   86   51                #  7   #151    #270   #  2 
ESPN BPI               +20.60                 95.3     #  6   # 78    #170   # 64
Whitlock               +18.01*                         # 19*  #       #240*  #   
Colley Matrix          +14.69                          # 41   #273    #220   #  3
NCAA NET                                               # 17*          #226*
LRMS                                                   # 15*  #       #203*  #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +22.45   82.5 59.2     93.3
scatter                  5.11    3.0  3.0      5.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is up to 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 12 Michigan State              87  74    +3.39    +9.61
HOME   #254 Tarleton State              88  62   +27.28    -1.28
HOME   #168 Stony Brook-NY                       +22.26             0.978
NEUT   #120 North Texas                          +15.83             0.925
NEUT   #128 Dayton                               +16.61             0.934
NEUT   #105 Miami-Florida                        +14.42          or 0.905
NEUT   # 19 Alabama                               +4.34             0.653
NEUT   # 79 Belmont                              +11.90          or 0.860
NEUT   # 55 Drake                                 +9.69          or 0.811
NEUT   #146 Iona College                         +17.76          or 0.947
AWAY   # 30 St. John's                            +3.41             0.622
HOME   #172 UTEP                                 +22.58             0.980
HOME   #103 Missouri                             +17.60             0.945
HOME   #143 Stephen F. Austin                    +20.73             0.970
AWAY   # 41 Colorado                              +4.13             0.646
HOME   #116 Harvard                              +18.72             0.956
HOME   # 62 TCU                                  +13.98             0.898
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma State                        +3.67             0.631
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +1.70             0.561
HOME   #122 Iowa State                           +19.14             0.959
HOME   # 35 West Virginia                        +10.23             0.824
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +3.41             0.622
AWAY   #107 Kansas State                         +11.34             0.849
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                            +8.14             0.770
HOME   # 15 Kentucky                              +6.90             0.735
AWAY   #122 Iowa State                           +12.70             0.876
HOME   #  6 Baylor                                +5.20             0.682
AWAY   # 16 Texas                                 +0.70             0.525
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              +9.85             0.815
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma State                       +10.11             0.821
AWAY   # 35 West Virginia                         +3.79             0.635
HOME   #107 Kansas State                         +17.78             0.947
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                -1.24             0.455
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   +7.54             0.753
HOME   # 16 Texas                                 +7.14             0.742

Here is Stony Brook's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 63 George Mason                52  74   -11.30   -10.70
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -22.26             0.022