predictions for Tarleton State game

Good to hear the Rock Chalk chant so loud and clear at Madison Square Garden.
The fans did their part.

I've been up all night chasing (what else?) asteroids, so I'm going to keep
this short so that I can get some sleep before tip-off.  On paper, it's the
easiest game of the season.  What makes it hard to predict is, for one thing,
the opposing coach is a dear friend of Self, so running up the score is not
to be expected.  The thing is, the Kansas bench is pretty good too, so just
resting your starters won't prevent the score from being run up.  I suppose
Self could play his walk-ons, but the whole idea is to get some real game
experience for your main rotation, so the walk-ons might get the last three
minutes or so.

Another thing is, just how good is Tarleton?  They actually held a halftime
lead against Stanford, though wound up losing by 12 in a low-scoring affair.

At the high end, we have Sagarin expecting a 28 to 29 point win.  At the low
end, Sagarin's eigenvector analysis and the BPI have it as a 16 to 17 point
win.  Pomeroy is about midway between those limits.  The average predicted
margin of victory is a bit over 24 points.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TS      KU      Defensive Stats      TS      KU
Points/Game         50.0    87.0     Opp Points/Game     62.0    74.0
Avg Score Margin   -12.0   +13.0     Opp Effective FG %  48.9    51.6
Assists/Game         8.0    13.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      5.0     7.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   25.0    30.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     16.0    22.0
Effective FG %      47.1    53.1     Blocks/Game          1.0     4.0
Off Rebound %       17.2    20.6     Steals/Game          6.0     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.058   0.375     Personal Fouls/Gm   20.0    20.0
Turnover %          20.9    10.6

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       two-way tie
most points        Montre' Gipson (guard)
most rebounds      Tahj Small (guard)
most assists       Montre' Gipson (guard)
most steals        Tahj Small (guard)rd)
most blocks        Shakur Daniel (guard)
most turnovers     four-way tie
most fouls         two-way tie

Asterisks in the table below indicate numbers based on last season.

                                                           1-0            0-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Tarleton St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +28.41   80   52       97       #  2   # 45    #274   # 63
Sagarin Predictor      +28.11   80   52       99.5     #  2   # 45    #272   # 63 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +29.20   80   51       97       #  2   # 45    #279   # 63 
Sagarin Recent Games   +29.36   81   51       97       #  2   # 45    #275   # 63 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +16.02   74   58       90   
Massey                 +26.00   82   56       98       #  9   # 67    #327   # 57
Pomeroy                +22.14   77   55                #  3   # 50    #219   # 55
Greenfield             +26.00   80   54                #  6   # 24    # 31   # 58
Dunkel                 +26.50   85   58                # 32           #212                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +26.00   80   54                                          
Dolphin Predictive        .                            # 28*  #       #186*  #   
Real Time              +19.00   81   62       84.9     #  3   #191    #270   #146 
Seven Overtimes           .                            #104   # 16    #258   # 62
DPPI                      .                            #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +16.80                 93.4     #  6   # 61    #151   # 57
Whitlock               +16.26*                         # 19*  #       #309*  #   
Colley Matrix          +30.60*                         # 15*  #       #286*  #   
NCAA NET                                               # 17*          #253*
LRMS                                                   # 15*  #       #      #   
common opponents                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +24.46   80.0 54.8     94.6
scatter                  4.78    2.8  3.5      4.9

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 23 Michigan State              87  74    +5.75    +7.25
HOME   #272 Tarleton State                       +28.12             0.995
HOME   #170 Stony Brook-NY                       +22.70             0.980
NEUT   #117 North Texas                          +15.82             0.925
NEUT   # 88 Dayton                               +12.35             0.869
NEUT   # 95 Miami-Florida                        +13.42          or 0.889
NEUT   # 13 Alabama                               +4.31             0.652
NEUT   # 65 Drake                                +11.03          or 0.842
NEUT   #107 Belmont                              +15.03          or 0.914
NEUT   #162 Iona College                         +19.26          or 0.960
AWAY   # 42 St. John's                            +4.64             0.663
HOME   #182 UTEP                                 +23.43             0.983
HOME   # 64 Missouri                             +14.23             0.902
HOME   #132 Stephen F. Austin                    +19.92             0.965
AWAY   # 44 Colorado                              +5.12             0.679
HOME   #110 Harvard                              +18.42             0.953
HOME   # 83 TCU                                  +15.34             0.918
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma State                        +3.41             0.622
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                            +2.13             0.577
HOME   #124 Iowa State                           +19.34             0.961
HOME   # 37 West Virginia                        +10.70             0.835
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma                              +5.52             0.692
AWAY   #104 Kansas State                         +11.13             0.844
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                            +8.57             0.782
HOME   # 14 Kentucky                              +7.67             0.757
AWAY   #124 Iowa State                           +12.90             0.880
HOME   #  4 Baylor                                +4.59             0.662
AWAY   #  9 Texas                                 +0.13             0.505
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma                             +11.96             0.862
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma State                        +9.85             0.815
AWAY   # 37 West Virginia                         +4.26             0.651
HOME   #104 Kansas State                         +17.57             0.945
AWAY   #  4 Baylor                                -1.85             0.433
AWAY   # 83 TCU                                   +8.90             0.791
HOME   #  9 Texas                                 +6.57             0.725

Here is Tarleton State's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 72 Stanford                    50  62   -16.67    +4.67
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -28.12             0.005